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UFC 238: Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 238 tonight in Chicago.

The win probabilities for UFC 238’s nine qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Cejudo-Moraes, Shevchenko-Eye, Ferguson-Cerrone, and Suarez-Ansaroff, see Tuesday’s piece.

Henry Cejudo (58.7%) over Marlon Moraes
Valentina Shevchenko (81.9%) over Jessica Eye
Tony Ferguson (57.0%) over Donald Cerrone
Petr Yan (54.2%) over Jimmie Rivera
Tatiana Suarez (57.3%) over Nina Ansaroff
Aljamain Sterling (56.1%) over Pedro Munhoz
Alexa Grasso (64.7%) over Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Ricardo Lamas (56.5%) over Calvin Kattar
Katlyn Chookagian (53.6%) over Joanne Calderwood

Current Bankroll: $10,152.02
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,549.39

The fight computer has one bet with $50.76 on Cejudo at +135 as of this writing (11:00am PT). Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.

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