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Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs staff picks and predictions

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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s big middleweight title unification between Canelo Alvarez and Daniel Jacobs.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

The picks are in for Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs, and only Stephie Haynes is going for the “Miracle Man” to fulfill his improbable journey and become a unified middleweight champion. Everyone else is picking Canelo, and in the interest of fleshing this out, we are sharing a couple of pick explanations from our friends over at Bad Left Hook.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs

Mookie Alexander: I’d love for Jacobs to win this. How can you not root for him? His life, never mind his career, could’ve been cut short after being diagnosed with bone cancer several years ago. Not only has he comeback, he’s legitimated himself as one of the elite middleweights in the world. Despite what the odds suggest, this is a competitive fight. Jacobs is the bigger man (and unlike Rocky FIelding, way more skilled), has very good power, and his movement is more varied than Gennady Golovkin. Where I feel the fight will be won is downstairs; the body shots of Canelo are among the best in all of boxing, and if there’s going to be a way to slow down Jacobs (as Connor Ruebusch referenced in his judo chop), it’ll be those persistent jabs and hooks to the body. There is admittedly a chance this fight could actually not be all that great, as Jacobs is very much prone to prolonged stretches of not doing enough offensively, and Alvarez is more boxer-puncher than he is some classic come-forward, throw-a-bunch fighter. And yeah, the judging is probably going to be an uphill battle for Jacobs that he can only combat with a knockout. I am looking forward to this one, at worst it’s a high-level chess match, at best we get something that exceeds expectations for a fight of this magnitude. Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: For years now (basically every since he started to get big), there has been a very vocal base talking about how Canelo is overrated - how he has problems in his fundamentals and just isn’t as good as people want him to be. And as that group has grown louder while Canelo has grown better, I’m actually of the mind that the opposite is true: Canelo’s detractors (who have some fair reason for being detractors) have convinced people that he’s worse than he actually is, and at this point, he’s underrated. Example: the Golovkin fights, where Canelo showed that he is at GGG’s level. No, he shouldn’t have gotten the draw first time out, but he clearly wasn’t blown out as some would have you believe. All that said, Jacobs is also a very good fighter, making this a tough match. Canelo should have the advantage in body work (as he always does) which I anticipate slowing Jacobs down and allowing Canelo to have more success in the later rounds, while Jacobs should have the early advantage. That makes for a close fight. The X Factor is, of course, the judging. For Jacobs to win, he’ll need to either close the show or win, like, ALL the rounds. Neither seems likely. Canelo Alvarez via unanimous decision that angers many viewers

From Bad Left Hook (read full predictions here)

Scott Christ: One of the things being used to help sell this fight — and subscriptions to to see this fight — is the fact that in 2017, Daniel Jacobs gave Gennady Golovkin a lot of grief, losing a narrow decision in New York. And we all know that Golovkin gave Canelo all (or more, depending on whom you ask) he could handle in 2017 and 2018.

So as far as a competitive matchup on paper goes, Jacobs is good for Alvarez. They’re two of the top three at 160 with Golovkin, But I don’t think it’s going to be a great fight, either, and I don’t think Jacobs can beat Alvarez. Jacobs does a lot of things well, and he believes his movement can trouble Alvarez. I’m not sold on that being a difference-maker. And I don’t think Jacobs can knock Canelo and his tree-trunk neck out, so he’d have to really punish the body, which Canelo generally protects well, and I don’t think Jacobs can seriously outbox Canelo over 12 rounds. Jacobs is really, really good, but I don’t think he has the advantages needed to convincingly beat Alvarez, and if it’s not convincing, he’s not getting the scores. Canelo UD-12

Wil Esco: Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs represents two of the three best middleweights in the world going head-to-head. Strictly speaking, the sport needs much more of these kind of competitive fights so I should be more excited for this than I actually am. But, unfortunately, the best fighting the best doesn’t always make for the best fights, and I believe this is one of those cases.

The styles of Canelo and Jacobs don’t mesh all that well together since neither fighter is particularly comfortable playing the role of aggressor for any length of time. Because of this I see a fight that doesn’t have a ton of sustained action, and one in which neither fighter gets dropped or stopped. Ultimately, though, I think Canelo’s head movement is good enough to keep from getting picked off by the taller Jacobs at distance, with his flashier combinations on the inside likely to get the attention from judges. When it’s all said and done I see Canelo taking a majority decision in a fight that ends up looking better on paper than it does in the ring. Canelo MD-12

Staff picking Canelo: Dayne, Mookie, Fraser, Scott (from BLH), Wil (from BLH)
Staff picking Jacobs: Stephie
Staff picking draw:

Poll

Who wins?

This poll is closed

  • 14%
    Canelo by KO/TKO
    (93 votes)
  • 17%
    Jacobs by KO/TKO
    (110 votes)
  • 39%
    Canelo by decision
    (252 votes)
  • 15%
    Jacobs by decision
    (96 votes)
  • 1%
    Draw/NC/DQ
    (10 votes)
  • 12%
    Did you seriously provide "Jacobs by decision" as an answer?
    (78 votes)
639 votes total Vote Now