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UFC 235: Jon Jones vs. Anthony Smith win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 235 tonight in Las Vegas.

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The win probabilities for UFC 235’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Jones-Smith and Woodley-Usman, see Wednesday’s piece.

Jon Jones (71.6%) over Anthony Smith

Kamaru Usman (61.5%) over Tyron Woodley

Cody Garbrandt (58.2%) over Pedro Munhoz

Zabit Magomedsharipov (62.3%) over Jeremy Stephens

Cody Stamann (58.0%) over Alejandro Perez

Mickey Gall (53.1%) over Diego Sanchez

Current Bankroll: $9,758.40

No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,155.77

Often times, upset picks will at least have a reasonable story based on some potential statistical advantage that can possibly be exploited. It’s harder to find such edges for Usman and I’m not sure how the fight computer picked him, but at the end of the day I do what it says. The fight computer has one bet with $97.58 on Usman at +140 as of this writing (12:45pm ET).

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.

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