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UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 245 tonight in Las Vegas.

The win probabilities for UFC 245’s eight qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the inaugural BMF belt matchup, see Wednesday’s piece.

Kamaru Usman (59.7%) over Colby Covington
Max Holloway (61.3%) over Alex Volkanovski
Amanda Nunes (73.0%) over Germaine De Randamie
Jose Aldo (53.0%) over Marlon Moraes
Petr Yan (56.8%) over Urijah Faber
Geoff Neal (53.3%) over Mike Perry
Ketlen Vieira (59.7%) over Irene Aldana
Matt Brown (61.9%) over Ben Saunders

Current Bankroll: $9,087.57
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $9,484.94

The computer has one bet as of this writing (11:15am PT) of $45.44 on Jose Aldo at +165.

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.