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UFC 244: Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 244 tonight in New York City.

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The win probabilities for UFC 244’s five qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the inaugural BMF belt matchup, see Tuesday’s piece.

Kelvin Gastelum (57.8%) over Darren Till
Vicente Luque (52.6%) over Stephen Thompson
Gregor Gillespie (57.9%) over Kevin Lee
Makwan Amirkhani (55.4%) over Shane Burgos
Julio Arce (57.7%) over Hakeem Dawodu

An official prediction can’t be made for Masvidal-Diaz since complete data for Masvidal’s most recent destruction of Ben Askren is unavailable, even though it was only five seconds. And it might’ve made a difference since - just for fun - the model would’ve edged to Diaz at 58.8% in a world where Masvidal’s last fight didn’t exist.

Current Bankroll: $9,535.25
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $9,932.62

The fight computer had a bad week at UFC Tampa, but that happens. As of this writing (10:25am PT), it has one bet of $190.70 on Amirkhani at +195.

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.