It’s fight day! A super-stacked UFC 244 card is about to kick off from Madison Square Garden in New York City. Bloody Elbow is front and center with the betting lines.
The top of the billing enjoys the highly anticipated BMF title bout between Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz. The oddsmakers project that Masvidal will be the one walking out of the arena with the BMF belt, assigning him a moneyline of -165. As for Diaz, he is on the table with an underdog value of +155.
The over/under for this banger has been set at 4.5 rounds. The ‘Over’ has been labeled as the more likely outcome, owning a line of -137. The ‘Under,’ at +122, has been pegged as the dog in this prop. The bookies believe that this five-round affair will need all 25-minutes to determine an outcome. The exotic bet ‘Fight goes to decision’ is on deck at -150, with a +110 comeback on ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision.’
Is this clash of killers really going to the judges’ scorecards? Five of Masvidal’s last six wins came by knockout, including his record setting flying knee on Ben Askren in his last outing. It’s safe to say that Jorge is quite lethal on the feet. Despite these spectacular knockouts, Masvidal has actually won more fights by decision than anything else. He’s won 15 by KO(TKO), two by submission, and then 17 by decision. That’s 17 finishes and 17 decisions, giving him a finishing rate of 50%.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jorge is not someone who is accustomed to getting finished. He’s only been stopped three times in his career, with the last one occurring way back in 2009. Masvidal is known for losing close decisions. Ten times he has fallen short on the scorecards, with five of them being splits. Masvidal has been stopped in 23% of his 13 losses. All in all, that’s 20 times his bouts ended early, and 27 times it went the distance — giving his fights an overall finishing rate of about 42%, with just over 57% going the distance.
As for Diaz, he typically strikes with his opponents until they shoot in on him, and then he finds the sub. Eleven of his 20 wins involved a tap, with five of those being knockouts. That’s an impressive finishing rate of 80%. Nate has only won four decisions in his career. Going back the other way, Diaz was only knocked out once and submitted once throughout his MMA journey. The KO happened in 2013 with the sub transpiring way back in 2006. His other nine losses came by decision. Out of his 11 losses, he was finished twice, meaning he has a super-low ‘getting finished rate’ of 18%. In total, Nate’s fights have ended early 18 times, and hit the scorecards in 13 instances. That’s 58% of his outings ending early, with the judges being needed in almost 42% of them.
Both Masvidal and Diaz are capable closers, out of 54 wins between them, 33 of them happened inside the distance. That’s a combined finishing rate of 61%. That metric might make it seem like the UFC 244 main event will not need all five-rounds to find a winner, but the frequency of these fighters getting finished is severely low. With 24 losses between them, only five of those were sans scorecards. That’s a combined ‘getting finished rate’ of only about 20%. Based off of that metric, it’s clear to see why the bookies project this one going the distance.
Bloody Elbow’s midweek betting odds post included several crazy and unique exotic bets, courtesy of SportsBetting.ag. Such props include will a Stockton slap land, the number of F-words uttered, and whether or not U.S. president, Donald Trump, will get booed by the crowd.
Check out the UFC 244 betting odds, courtesy of OddsShark.com:
For an in-depth breakdown of each UFC 244 fight, check out The MMA Vivisection with Bloody Elbow’s own Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch. Be sure to subscribe to our secondary YouTube channel to stay up to date with all of our live video content. Stay glued to Bloody Elbow for all of your event coverage including play-by-play, results, highlights, and more! Happy hunting!