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Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev staff picks and predictions

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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev.

The Bloody Elbow team is unanimous in picking Canelo Alvarez to win the WBO light heavyweight title from Sergey Kovalev on Saturday night’s Golden Boy on DAZN card. For what it’s worth, the same applies to our friends at Bad Left Hook.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev

Mookie Alexander: I am really tempted to pick Kovalev. Is he past his prime? Sure. But he’s also an actual elite light heavyweight with real power that crushes real light heavyweights. Alvarez is going to be faster, sharper, and his cardio is outstanding. He’s got brutal body shots, which Kovalev has had a hard time dealing with. His chin is insanely good and while he’s not overly powerful in the classical sense, he’s got really good finishing instincts when he has someone on the ropes. Does he have the footwork to get inside and work Kovalev over? What’s his risk level going to be going up 15 lbs against someone who’s way better than Rocky Fielding? I don’t see this as a blowout that others have it as based off of Kovalev’s recent performances. This is winnable for Sergey just on his ramrod jab, size, and power. That said, this is Vegas, and if he doesn’t stop Canelo, he ain’t winning. Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision.

Ram Gilboa : You grow up a red head in Guadalajara, you learn to fight. And, simply growing up in Siberia, Kovalev became an ice cold krusher. While Kovalev is now certainly past his krushing prime, he’s still only 36, and he still flattens people on a jab. Chi-wise - scientifically speaking - these two are brute fighting forces. And while it seems clear that Canelo is the better boxer of the two, and closer to his physical prime – he’s also lighter than Kovalev, and with shorter reach. Can he get past Kovalev’s fearsome long jab? And given he can - the bigger question here, it seems, is how well will the Mexican’s power translate to 175? And against a ring bully like Kovalev? If his punches won’t make Kovalev a bit unsure and tentative at least, the Siberian born Floridan should take control of the ring pretty easily.

But I see the red head hurting the big Russian a bit. It won’t be without challenges but I see Canelo’s top notch upper body movement making Kovalev miss jabs and straights, and I see Canelo beating Kovalev’s big body over and over again after slipping in. I see Kovalev getting frustrated by missing, and by getting hit, and then by getting tired. Fatigue, General George Patton famously said, makes cowards of us all. And then Canelo will take over. Saul Canelo Alvarez by TKO, round 10.

Lucas Bourdon : Kovalev is a much, much stiffer test than Rocky Fielding was the last time Canelo jumped up in weight but he’s also seen better days. He still has a ramrod jab and devastating power but if his size doesn’t prove more of a problem to handle than anticipated for Canelo, we’ve seen Canelo handle a bigger orthodox boxer reliant on his jab very well before against Jacobs (that was a close fight but Jacobs found most of his success once he switched to southpaw or on the inside, two dimensions that Kovalev hasn’t really shown before and that he’s unlikely to develop this late in his career). Coupled with the vulnerability to body shots the Russian has shown lately, that makes me lean towards a Canelo decision with the potential for a late KO if his power carries up to light heavyweight better than I anticipated.

Staff picking Canelo: Nick, Ed, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Lucas
Staff picking Kovalev:


Who wins?

This poll is closed

  • 46%
    Canelo Alvarez
    (188 votes)
  • 49%
    Sergey Kovalev
    (200 votes)
  • 3%
    (14 votes)
402 votes total Vote Now