The win probabilities for UFC 225’s seven qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Whittaker-Romero, dos Anjos-Covington, and yes, Punk-Jackson, see Friday’s piece.
Current Bankroll: $9,900.26
While the model gives the edge to Covington, I’ll be thrilled to lose that pick and see RDA crowned the new UFC interim welterweight champion. Rashad Evans’ actual win probability is 50.05997%, rounded up to 50.1% for presentation purposes. While I’d personally pick Smith, I’m guessing the model sees his terrible clinch takedown defense (20% in alternative stats) and 28% below average standup ability and gives Evans a decent chance to dirty up the fight on the cage or ground for at least two rounds. While I’d go the other way, I just do what it says for this experiment.
The model has $49.50 on Evans at +195 as of this writing (11:13am PT).
Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.