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UFC 221: Yoel Romero vs. Luke Rockhold win probabilities and betting picks

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 221 tonight in Perth.

UFC 221 Weigh-ins Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The win probabilities for UFC 221’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For number overload on the alternative stats behind tonight’s key matchups, see Tuesday’s piece.

Luke Rockhold (53.5%) over Yoel Romero (46.5%)

Jingliang Li (58.9%) over Jake Matthews (41.1%)

Damien Brown (50.6%) over Dong Hyun Kim (49.4%)

Ben Nguyen (67.2%) over Jussier Formiga (32.8%)

Mizuto Hirota (50.5%) over Ross Pearson (49.5%)

Jose Quinonez (68.5%) over Teruto Ishihara (31.5%)

Current Bankroll: $10,187.96

After a rough betting start, the model is back in the black. It should be around $10,585.33, if not for two erroneous bets on David Branch and Sergio Moraes on Sept. 16 for $397.37. That sucked, but made me even more careful with the real life aspect of this experiment than I thought I already was.

There are two virtual coin flips on the night, Brown-Kim and Hirota-Pearson. I’m just hoping to hit one of those. The two biggest favorites according to the model are Jose Quinonez and Ben Nguyen, but only Nguyen’s line looks nice enough.

The model has $50.94 on Ben Nguyen at -105 as of this writing (2:29pm PT).

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.