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UFC 231: Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 231 tonight in Toronto.

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The win probabilities for UFC 231’s nine qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Holloway-Ortega and Joanna-Shevchenko, see Tuesday’s piece.

Max Holloway (69.1%) over Brian Ortega

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (51.9%) over Valentina Shevchenko

Alex Oliveira (63.1%) over Gunnar Nelson

Thiago Santos (71.2%) over Jimi Manuwa

Claudia Gadelha (58.1%) over Nina Ansaroff

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (71.7%) over Gilbert Burns

Katlyn Chookagian (65.3%) over Jessica Eye

Elias Theodorou (65.1%) over Eryk Anders

Chad Laprise (78.5%) over Dhiego Lima

Current Bankroll: $10,113.58

No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,510.95

Four bets in one PPV show might be the most the fight computer has ever had. Overall, it’s back in the black on actual bets and it would be doing even better if I hadn’t been an idiot for one event. The model has $101.14 on Holloway at -110, $227.56 on Joanna at +270, $101.14 on Oliveira at +125, and $50.57 on Aubin-Mercier at -130 as of this writing (12:15am PT).

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.