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Breakdown: Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin fight preview and prediction

Get a full fight breakdown here for Canelo vs. GGG this Saturday live on PPV.

Gennady Golovkin v Canelo Alvarez - News Conference Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Saturday night, it’s the boxing mega-fight the hardcore fans have been craving: Canelo Alvarez (51-1-1; 34 KO) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0; 33 KO). Winner establishes his dominance as the undisputed king of the 160 pound Middleweight division, and it will be hard pressed to keep him out of one of the very topmost spots in pound for pound rankings. The fight will air live on PPV this Saturday, September 16 with a fight time of 8:00 p.m. ET. for the PPV card. Canelo vs. GGG headlines a four fight PPV card that also includes Joseph Diaz, Jr. among others.

How do these two stack up?
Canelo: 27 years old | 5’9” | 70.5" reach | orthodox stance
Golovkin: 35 years old | 5’10" | 70" reach | orthodox stance

What have these two done recently?
Canelo: W - Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (UD) | W - Liam Smith (KO) | W - Amir Khan (KO)
Golovkin: W - Daniel Jacobs (UD) | W - Kell Brook (TKO) | W - Dominic Wade (KO)

How did these two get here?

Canelo Alvarez has been hyped as the next big thing for Mexican boxing, and he has proven that he deserves that hype. He started to really break out in the US in 2012, earning himself a shot at Floyd Mayweather in 2013. He’s undefeated since, with a number of impressive KO’s on his recent resume. He won the true Middleweight title in 2015 from Miguel Cotto, but his reign has cost him many fans, as it’s been marked largely by him fighting at strange catchweights and refusing to fight Golovkin. He comes in off an absolutely dreadful fight against Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. Canelo remains a big fan favorite for his Mexican fans, but he has some work to do here to regain his position as one of boxing’s brightest stars.

Gennady Golovkin is an insanely powerful puncher - undefeated, and with only 4 of his 37 opponents ever making the final bell. He has been riding an amazing 9 year streak of KOs, but Daniel Jacobs snapped that streak earlier this year. Golovkin has been so impressive throughout his HBO run, but he’s looked a bit less impressive in his last two fights. Jacobs in particular really took Golovkin close to defeat, falling by just a round or two. He hasn’t been fighting in the US for all that long, but it has to be remembered that Golovkin is already 35 years old - he may not be out of his prime just yet, but it certainly seems he’s more on the downward slump.

What can fans expect?

Golovkin’s power is always the deciding factor in his fights - always. He’s the kind of puncher that can change things instantly. Canelo has that power too as he showed against Amir Khan, but it seems unlikely he carries it into this fight against the larger, stronger GGG. But what always made Golovkin’s power so impressive was the way he used technique to set it up. And that combination is what’s been missing lately. Against Brook, he went full headhunter, throwing the technique out the window. It worked, but it was not his best. Against Jacobs, it was Jacobs who used his own technical skills and power to shut down Golovkin’s own power game. GGG still outboxed him though. So on the one hand, we’ve seen some slips lately from Golovkin. On the other hand, he’s still won those fights. Based on that, this is likely to be a boxing match, not a dogfight. And in a boxing match at this stage, look for Canelo to keep it a close tit-for-tat battle, but use his superb body work to tire Golovkin. This could end suddenly, but I see it being a close match-up that ultimately favors Canelo.
Prediction: Canelo Alvarez, UD

Who should watch?

You. This is a huge fight - the exact kind of fight we crave in combat sports. Watch it.

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