Breakdown: Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence Jr. fight preview and prediction

This Saturday Showtime presents another international event between two world class talents when Kell Brook (36-1; 25 KO) takes on Errol Spence, Jr. (21-0; 18 KO) The fight is for Brook’s IBF Welterweight (147 pound) title. Ring Magazine has the champ at #2 in the division behind only Keith Thurman, with Spence at #7. The fight will air live on Showtime this Saturday, May 27 with a fight time of 5:15 p.m. ET. This is the only fight from the UK card airing on Showtime, though they will also be streaming the George Groves vs. Fedor Chudinov fight (we will have a stream here).

How do these two stack up?
Brook: 31 years old | 5’9” | 69" reach | orthodox stance
Spence: 27 years old | 5’9" | 72" reach | southpaw stance

What have these two done recently?
Brook: L - Gennady Golovkin (TKO) | W - Kevin Bizier (TKO) | W - Frankie Gavin (TKO)
Spence: W - Leonard Bundu (KO) | W - Chris Algieri (TKO) | W - Alejandro Barrera (TKO)

How did these two get here?

England’s Kell Brook has been among the elite in one of boxing’s richest divisions for a number of years now - of the current Ring Magazine top 10 Welterweights, no one has been in the rankings as long as Brook. The 13 year veteran has spent most of his career building up his resume and fan following in England, although his biggest career win came in the US - his 2014 victory over Shawn Porter that earned him the IBF title he defends here. Much like Spence tonight, Porter at the time was an undefeated rising fighter - Brook effectively shut him down in a mild upset. Since then, he’s fought exclusively in the UK mainly against opponents a notch below and comes in off his 2016 loss to Middleweight kingpin Gennady Golovkin. Brook gave GGG a good run in that fight until Golovkin injured him with his power. One of the questions here is how Brook is recovered, and how he will do back at Welterweight after moving up for that fight.

Errol Spence, Jr. was a member of the 2012 US Olympic team, and has long been seen as the member of that team most likely to be a dominant force in the pro ranks. And so far, he’s lived up to that hype. He’s had a steady rise up the ranks, facing increasingly tough competition. But he’s yet to find the level that really challenges him, making solid opponents look like easy to beat cans. That said, he’s taking a big step up here, as he has never fought anyone like Brook. Spence is a superb technical boxer who seemingly does everything well which is why he is favored here despite being the challenger.

What can fans expect?

A southpaw fighter, Spence does his best when he is working behind the jab. He is incredibly accurate, timing shots perfectly, finding openings, and flowing his shots together into combos. He’s also excellent at mixing things up, using a wide range of punches both to the head and the body (his body attack is one of the best in the game right now). Spence has a high KO ratio, and it comes from that ability to lock into a groove and just land punch after punch. For Brook to win, he will need to disrupt that rhythm. And as a smart veteran, he absolutely can, much as he did against Porter, another fighter who wins by imposing his will. Brook won that fight by forcing Porter into his own fight, and that should be his strategy here. The concern though is that, unlike Porter, Spence’s game is not entirely dissimilar to Brook’s, so it will be harder for Brook to through him off. I see Brook making Spence work hard - this is not a fighter who’s going to be steamrolled - but Spence ultimately being able to land more and outpoint his way to the win of his career.

Prediction: Errol Spence, UD

Who should watch?

I’ve been saying this a lot this year but this is another must watch fight. Tremendously well-matched, high potential for a great fight, and the possible coming out party of the future of the division. You need to see it.