UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum goes down Saturday night, live from Fortaleza, Brazil. Every single match-up on the card features a Brazilian, but according to the oddsmakers it might be a mixed night for the hometown crowd. The bookies are also confident that in the main event Brazil will weep for Vitor Belfort (+353), who takes on Kelvin Gastelum (-425), as the biggest underdog on the card. The co-main might prove more palatable to Brazilians with Mauricio Rua a decent favorite (-135) over Gian Villante (+124).
See all the odds below via BestFightOdds (check there often to catch all the latest line movements):
Since the odds opened on February 6th, Belfort - a former UFC light heavyweight champion and a future ‘Hall of Famer’ - has been saddled with the underdog tag. The initial odds posted for him were around +235, but as money has come in on Kelvin Gastelum - who looked phenomenal himself versus Tim Kennedy at UFC 206 - Belfort’s odds have steadily grown to over +300. It might rise even higher as we get closer to Saturday’s main event.
The odds have widened since this fight was announced. Initially Vegas had it as a very close affair between Massaranduba (-130) and the MoTown Phenom (-110). Trinaldo, a TUF Brazil veteran has one of the longest win streaks in topflight MMA currently (7 wins since September, 2014), is coming off an eye-opening victory over Paul Felder last September. Lee looked fantastic last time out when he choked out Magomed Mustafaev at UFC Belfast in November. It would seem the public are more thrilled with Lee’s stoppage than Trinaldo’s streak, as their money has pushed the American to a -175 favorite.
Means seemed to have the beating of Oliveira when they faced off in December. The Dirty Bird was landing stiff combos and out muscling the Brazilian Cowboy against the cage before a pair of illegal knees ended the fight in controversy. Means told Bloody Elbow he felt stronger than Oliveira in the clinch. He also said he had a deep dislike for his opponent. Oliveira did knock Means down in their first fight, with a nifty spinning back kick, but if things play out like we’ve already seen you can expect to see the American get his hand raised at the end of this one. You can get Means to win at -211 with some outfits.
The South African McLellan is the second biggest underdog on the card, with some bookies listing him at +257. This is all despite him having something his opponent does not: a win in the UFC. Costa is coming out of Jungle Fight at 8-0 (all stoppages), but we don’t know how he’ll react to the bright lights of the UFC. McLellan’s only UFC win (he’s lost his other two) came against Bubba Bush at UFC Fight Night 76. He was the second biggest underdog on that card too (+290). With the odds stacked so high in favor of an unproven fighter, it might be worth putting a little sprinkle on Soldier Boy.
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