Diggin’ Deep on UFC Halifax: Lewis vs. Browne - Preliminary card preview

Seeing as how there was only a single contest taking place on the Fight Pass prelims, I decided it would be more economical to simply combine that contest with the rest of the prelims. Thus, you’re only getting a single edition of the prelims preview this week. Not that many of you will notice…

As it is, my favorite contest on the card is the preliminary headliner between Nordine Taleb and Santiago Ponzinibbio. How can you not love two battle-tested strikers? The other contest that has a bit of intrigue to it involves former strawweight champion Carla Esparza and Randa Markos. How will Esparza look almost two years removed from losing her belt? Will she be able to work her way back into championship form? If she doesn’t start to do so now, it’s likely she never will.

The Fight Pass prelims begin at 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT and the FS1 prelims begin at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT on Sunday, February 19.

Nordine Taleb (12-3) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (23-3), Welterweight

Taleb rides in having won four of his last five while Ponzinibbio has been victorious in five of his last six. Given the reputation for each to stand and trade, this contest stands as the early favorite for FOTN.

Taleb hasn’t been in the cage for almost a year due to injury. Given his age and the mileage he has accrued, it’s kind of a shame. At 35 years old, he could soon begin his physical decline given that he has been in the fighting business for about a decade. He has yet to show any signs that he is near the end and has in fact looked better than ever in recent fights. Absolutely massive for welterweight, Taleb has been able to out-muscle several opponents in the clinch or use his length and technical kickboxing at length with kicks. A jab is the heart of his attack. Taleb is limited athletically, a drawback that was exposed by Warlley Alves about 18 months ago. Then again, he did stop Erick Silva despite Silva’s natural physical advantages.

Ponzinibbio isn’t quite the athletic freak that Alves is, but he’s close, and a far more disciplined striker. That isn’t to say that he doesn’t leave openings, but Ponzinibbio’s tight, straight punches and powerful kicks travel fast with mean intentions. He can be floored with well-timed takedowns when he sets his feet – something Taleb has proven capable of pulling off – but typically is able to stay upright. It’s been a while since he’s submitted an opponent, but Ponzinibbio has proven to be a dangerous scrambler in the past and doesn’t stay on the ground long when taken down.

This has a bit of a crapshoot feel to it. Taleb has shown maturity and guile in his UFC run, indicating he should be able to expose a number of holes in Ponzinibbio’s defense. However, he isn’t going to be able to walk out of this contest without having eaten some punishment of his own. I think the punishment will be too much for Taleb to overcome. It should be a dandy of a fight with the Argentinian likely to come out on top. Ponzinibbio via decision

Carla Esparza (11-3) vs. Randa Markos (6-4), Women’s Strawweight

Something is up with Esparza. Since losing her title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she has only faced currently unranked Juliana Lima in an uneventful decision last year. Now she faces unranked Markos? When is Esparza going to face an opponent who is expected to pose a serious challenge?

Regardless of who Esparza is facing, no one can deny that Esparza is among the best wrestlers in the division. Hell, some would say that she is the best. Her short frame allows her to easily get in underneath her opponent’s hips and drive them down to the canvas. If that doesn’t work, she is relentless in chaining together her attempts until she gets what she wants. Esparza’s ground and pound isn’t overpowering, but she knows how to stay busy enough to keep the referee from standing it up. However, she has seemingly lost all confidence in her boxing after the shellacking Jedrzejczyk put on her. Before that, she was a sound point scorer who used good footwork and angles to overcome her lack of range.

Markos has never lacked for confidence, pulling off a pair of upsets in the TUF house during the tournament that ultimately crowned Esparza champion. An aggressive submission artist, Markos has gotten herself into trouble a fair amount, getting herself submitted at various points due to her nature. She tried a more patient approach for a while, picking up a countering jab and waiting for her opponent to come to her. She has since left Tristar and reverted back to her violent ways, blitzing her opponents with a flurry of punches and wide variety of kicks. Though she has a good wrestling pedigree, it hasn’t translated to much in terms of takedown defense. That doesn’t sound good against Esparza.

Though Markos has the aggressive nature to pull off the upset on the tentative Esparza, the safer bet is Esparza exposing Markos’ poor takedown defense and grinding her into dust. It isn’t entertaining, but it should serve the purpose of continuing to rebuild Esparza’s shattered confidence. Esparza via decision

Aiemann Zahabi (6-0) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (13-4), Bantamweight

If you’re wondering whether or not Zahabi might be of any relation to highly regarded Tristar trainer Firas Zahabi, you’d be correct. The younger brother of GSP’s longtime trainer, Aiemann has taken his time with his MMA career and now prepares to make his debut against TUF Brazil winner Vieira.

Don’t let the lack of fights on Zahabi’s record fool you - he’s got plenty of experience under his belt as he’s been a long-time member of the Tristar gym working with the best that the team has to offer. It is a bit disconcerting that he hasn’t faced any particularly difficult opponents, but he has disposed of every one of his opponents in the first round, dominating them in a way that a vaunted prospect is supposed to do. Like most Tristar products, he tends to lead with a potent jab and often follows up with a kick to the body. He has sneaky power and a good array of trips and throws to compliment his excellent control based grappling where he waits for an opponent to make a mistake before capitalizing.

Vieira’s wheelhouse has long been his grappling, though that reputation took a hit when he was subbed by Marco Beltran this past summer. Without a single stoppage by strikes in his career, his looping hooks have more often than not served to cover the distance as he looks to clinch up for a takedown. It’s a strategy that has often left him wide open to be countered, particularly by disciplined opponents. Even though he was submitted by Beltran, Vieira does have an extremely aggressive submission game, with guillotines and armbars being his preferred method of finish.

Even after winning TUF Brazil 4, pundits knew that Vieira’s ceiling was limited. He’s already 34, has never been anything more than an average athlete at best, and has never been able to strike fear into the heart of his opponent on the feet. Given his troubles to get the fight to the ground, I see Zahabi maintaining a disciplined approach to pick apart the Brazilian. It may not be the most exciting contest, but you better believe it will be a technical clinic.

Jack Marshman (21-5) vs. Thiago Santos (13-5), Middleweight

You’d think the UFC would give Santos an opponent coming off of a loss given that he is riding a two-fight losing streak himself. Instead the UFC opted to give him Marshman, who dispatched of the normally durable Magnus Cedenblad in impressive fashion in his UFC debut. Regardless of who wins, don’t expect this to go to a decision.

Though both have reputations as finishers, Marshman and Santos have very different styles. Marshman thrives in a brawl, standing in the pocket and exchanging punches. There is more technique to his style than you’d think at first glance, putting together punching combinations and mixing them to the head and body. Though his chin isn’t granite, the Welshman has been able to hold up well in a chaotic environment with most comers. His ground game is competent as he can nail the occasional takedown and snag a sub when it’s there for the taking, but it’s nothing special.

Santos will have a huge advantage in terms of pure striking technique, throwing his kicks and punches with snap and power. Opponents have tried to take away his kicks by crowding him only for Santos to display a clinch game equally as dangerous, wracking their body with knees. His Achilles heel has always been his grappling, though he has traditionally shown sound takedown defense. Santos did get taken down and submitted by Eric Spicely in his last contest, though it has been reported that Santos suffered an injury early in the contest which compromised his defense.

Though this is an atypical match in that it’s matching a winner vs. loser, I like the contest. Marshman surprised many when he was able to not just pull out a victory over Cedenblad, but put a hell of a beating on the Swede. Santos has beaten better competition than Cedenblad, but also was the victim in one of the biggest upsets of the year when he lost to Spicely. Was it a fluke due to injury or is Santos career trajectory trending downwards? We’ll have our answer, but I’m guessing it was a fluke. Santos via KO, RD2

Gerald Meerschaert (25-8) vs. Ryan Janes (9-1), Middleweight

Few pegged Meerschaert or Janes as UFC material before getting their call to the big show. Having won their debuts, the vets now square off looking to continue a run that is already seen as improbable by many.

Even though he has over three times the amount of professional fights under his belt than Janes, Meerschaert is the younger of the two by nearly six years. An aggressive submission artist with limited athleticism, Meerschaert has gotten by on guile and savvy that he has accumulated over his many years in the fight game. Though not overpowering or very technical, he chains his takedown attempts aggressively to get the fight to the ground. His submissions attempts, like his takedown attempts, are chained together aggressively in a fluid manner that can only be done with years of experience.

Janes isn’t a particularly strong athlete either, but does a good job of utilizing the tools that he does have. He isn’t a powerful striker, but he pours on the volume heavy behind a stiff jab exacerbated by his 76" reach. The pace at which he works is difficult to match, but Janes desperately needs to work on his head movement and pulling himself out of range as his defense is not good. His takedown defense has been spotty, but he’ll need to rely heavily on it if he hopes to be able to survive Meerschaert’s onslaught.

Despite the lack of enthusiasm around the contest, this is a well-matched fight that stands a good chance of being highly entertaining given the aggressive styles of both competitors. Meerschaert’s experience and opportunistic nature should give him the edge to find a way to finish off the Canadian. Meerschaert via submission, RD2