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UFC 219: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm win probabilities and betting picks

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 219 tonight in Las Vegas.

MMA: UFC 214-Cyborg vs Evinger Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The win probabilities for UFC 219’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where the two fighters have at least four fully-documented prior bouts and aren’t heavyweights. For number overload on the alternative stats behind tonight’s key matchups, see Friday’s piece.

Cris Cyborg (78.4%) over Holly Holm (21.6%)

Khabib Nurmagomedov (58.6%) over Edson Barboza (41.4%)

Marc Diakiese (55.8%) over Daniel Hooker (44.2%)

Neil Magny (58.4%) over Carlos Condit (41.6%)

Current Bankroll: $9,717.31

I’ve definitely learned a lot the last few months about the differences between making weekly live picks and pretending to run something live in a statistical program. Two bets for almost $400 back in September shouldn’t have been made and I didn’t notice at the time. Hence the warning below. The model would be in the positive range around +$115 if I hadn’t been such a donk, but over the long run it hopefully won’t matter.

The model has $24.29 on Magny at +130 as of this writing.

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You've been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.