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UFC 217: Michael Bisping vs. Georges St-Pierre win probabilities and betting picks

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 217 in New York City.

The win probabilities for UFC 217’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where the two fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For more on the alternative stats for tonight’s key matchups, see Friday’s piece.

Georges St-Pierre (72%) over Michael Bisping (28%)

Cody Garbrandt (56.5%) over T.J. Dillashaw (43.5%)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (64.5%) over Rose Namajunas (35.5%)

Jorge Masvidal (56.6%) over Stephen Thompson (43.4%)

Joseph Duffy (51.3%) over James Vick (48.7%)

Ovince St. Preux (55.2%) over Corey Anderson (44.8%)

Current Bankroll: $9,274.60

Seven bets in and it hasn’t been a great start. The statistician in me will start caring more about the bankroll number when at least 1-1½ years go by thanks to MMA’s small number of monthly observations and even fewer bets.

In terms of accuracy, the model’s at 62.5% after 32 picks, just under the 65.5% over three-and-a-half years of testing where readers were warned “don’t expect that to continue” (money line favorites won 65.4% of the time). Favorites have outperformed so far, winning 71.9% of the time.

The model has $69.56 on GSP at -110 and $69.56 on Masvidal at +158 (as of this writing).

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You've been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.