I've noticed MMA gambling is hot in the community right now. Connor Ruebusch is giving his value picks on Vivisection, Jed Meshew is publishing articles with statistical comparisons and thorough breakdowns. Well, i'm here to help you be a fucking degenerate. Fuck all that shit. You wanna be a bigshot? You want to fill your bathtub with hundreds and bathe with hookers in your money bath? Then you've come to the right place.
For the past year, i've taken gambling on MMA and turned it into an obsessive hobby. The days of casual bets to have fun were cool, but I realized how much I liked doing this and began to take it seriously. I've taken a hundred dollar deposit and turned it into a $5100 dollar bankroll in the span of 13 months. Formerly $6300, thanks a lot Brazil. I also like writing, so i've decided to share my musings in hopes to better myself as a gambler, and give whatever insight I can to fellow gambling fanatics who soak in all of the information and opinions they can.
No, i'm not about to tell you this is for entertainment purposes or give you a gambling hotline. 50 Cent once said get rich or die tryin, and those were wise words. So just remember, if you go broke, you can always apply for credit cards and loans to keep the game going.
But anyways, my disclaimer is that this is a funny time for me to start writing. Brazil crushed my soul with my biggest losing night ever, I haven't watch as much tape as I should for this card, and its a lower level confidence event. Maybe I should've saved this for next week since I have higher hopes for that one, but fuck it.
Will Brooks by decision -- $105 to win $100
So right off the bat the part of that disclaimer about not getting to watch footage comes into play. This is why this is a degenerate's journal though. And its a scary pick, but i'm not sold at all Oliveira can stop the takedowns. I envision this playing out with a tough and close striking battle, where eventually Brooks clinches on the cage and scores takedowns. Once he realizes how easy that is, he'll keep it going the rest of the fight. A lot of people feel Oliveira is a tough clinch fighter, but I don't see it being at a level thats going to bother Brooks. Correct me if i'm remembering wrong on this one, but Moontasri was making it a grind for Oliveira in that spot. And Moontasri is many levels below Brooks in clinchwork.
Louis Smolka inside the distance + Andre Fili vs Hacran Dias o2.5 rounds -- $130 to win $105
I like Brandon Moreno a lot. That fight with Pantoja was 4th of July level fireworks. Unfortunately, he has to get crushed by Smolka on short notice in his debut. The kid is a high level prospect who maybe can slide in and out of the pocket and hit Smolka with good shots, but the percentage is very low. This is short notice against one of the best guys in the division. Its going to look like the Nguyen fight, but much worse.
Dias is likely going to hold Fili on the mat for 3 rounds. Fili has failed to defend takedowns against much lesser wrestlers. Dias is also tough enough and defensively technical enough to not get knocked out. If Fili can snatch a victory, as scared as I am of a high kick catching Dias, I have to imagine that also favors two and a half rounds. Its going to take some savvy scrambling, using his footwork and reach, and not getting wildly aggressive but rather picking his shots. Maybe even a more boxing centric approach on the feet where Fili doesn't have the pop that he does behind his kicks.
Shamil Abdurahimov vs Walt Harris o1.5 rounds -- $72 to win $60
Shamil hasn't knocked anyone out in quite awhile, and thats for a reason. Hes very measured in his approach. Hes also your stereotypical tough Russian. I like this line, I might end up adding to it.
Nate Marquardt $57 to win $100
I know Josh Samman is a regular around here, but I can't be dishonest. I lost a lot of hype I had for him and McCrory both when they fought. It just wasn't that impressive to me. Lots of space being given on the ground, no spacial awareness on the feet seemingly from either end. It paid off as I bet both Jotko and Boetsch as dogs recently, and i'm going to keep that going and bet Marquardt. Hes obviously not even close to the same fighter he once was. With that said, he holds all of the value. If he shoots on Tamdan when Tamdan swarms, it will be a big confidence increase as I imagine he can score the takedowns if he goes for them in retaliation.
Cody East vs Curtis Blaydes o1.5 $66 to win $60
Cody East fights ridiculous. He comes out throwing wild shit. He'll randomly just say to himself "OK now we throwdown til one dies" like in the Harris fight which he was probably winning. My hope here is that Blaydes is both durable enough to withstand that, and smart enough to go for takedowns rather than counter that with a brawl. If so, this is a confident bet which I might add to.
Ion Cutelaba + Fasholz/Brazilian girl o2.5 -- $110 to win $160
Probably my least favorite play. Being the degenerate I am, I rewatched Wilson vs Brazilian AFTER I made this. Cutelaba has the head movement, the foot movement, but what he might not have is the offensive diversity, awareness, and technique of Wilson. Cutelaba sure does love to wing bombs, and Wilson's boxing was pretty damn impressive vs Brazilian. Hell, he was pretty damn impressive period. It was a bit of a confidence killer, but I still have faith in Cutelaba. Hopefully its easier to lure Wilson into comfortable exchanges than it was Cirkunov, and its very possible the pace wears Wilson out much faster than it does Ion.
Round robin parlays are the shit. Since incorporating them into my bet style back in May, my biggest nights have come off a strong round robin behind it. I do these every event, I highly recommend at the very least experimenting with them if you feel you have solid reads on plus odd props, or dogs in general. Or hell, just fuck with them period. I always am. They're fun, fuck it.
Josh Burkman, Shamil/Walt o1.5, Cutelaba, Blaydes/East o1.5, Brooks by dec, Smolka in the distance in 2s and 3s at $7 a piece.
Dodson/Lineker o2.5, Moreno/Smolka u1.5, Marquardt, Burkman by dec, Christensen by dec, Dias by dec, Shamil by dec, Zaleski by dec, Blaydes by dec, Fasholz by dec in 2s and 3s at $0.80 a piece. The potential return on this one is pretty absurd, about $4000. For the value, we go for it.
Unload your bank account into online bookies and chase the dream. Hopefully I can continue to make time to experiment with a reflective journal in an attempt to further my improvement, and I can give even just the littlest bit of insight or thought to anyone who might read it.
Best of luck, lets make this mothafuckin money.