UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt staff picks and predictions

Bloody Elbow's staff has made its predictions for Sunday's enticing UFC Fight Night 88 card in Las Vegas, Nevada. Only Anton Tabuena is picking Cody Garbrandt to beat Thomas Almeida in the main event. Meanwhile, Jed Meshew and Eddie Mercado have got Jeremy Stephens spoiling Renan Barao's move up to 145 pounds. These pick explanations all pale in comparison to Phil Mackenzie's masterpiece for Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda, which you better read.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt

Anton Tabuena: Am I the only one who thinks Garbrandt has a really good chance here, stylistically? Almeida gets reckless and ignores defense at times, and Garbrandt has the tools to make him pay if he fights disciplined. Almeida is the more potent finisher, and while some might call me crazy for saying this, I think Cody has better hands too. To me this has ‘upset’ written all over it. Cody Garbrandt by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Will Garbrandt go for takedowns? Can he crack the hittable Almeida and straight up stop him? I wouldn’t be surprised if Garbrandt tried to lessen the danger of Almeida’s stand-up by wrestling with Almeida, but that’s easier said than done. Almeida’s multi-layered attack is a treat to watch and I think it’s only a matter of time before Almeida hurts him to the body or lands some amazing strike that puts Cody out. Thomas Almeida via KO, round 2.

Jed Meshew: This fight is hot fire and I hate every minute of it. Both Almeida and Garbrandt are top shelf prospects and shouldn’t be fighting one another. I don’t know why Sean Shelby and Joe Silva insist on making prospects death matches but I’d rather they fight down the road when both have more seasoning. Anyway, Almeida is dope and Garbrandt is on his way to dopeness. Almeida’s has a diverse array of attacks on the feet but is somewhat reckless and hittable. Garbrandt has better defense but is less offensively potent and is vulnerable during protracted exchanges. If Almeida gets hurt early, as he is wont to do, then Garbrandt could easily finish him but I think Almeida’s willingness to attack the body will slow Garbrandt down and open him up for head shots later in the fight. Head shots by Thomas Almeida mean knock outs. Almeida by KO, round 3.

Nick Baldwin: This is going to be a fun one until someone gets slept. That someone will be Cody Garbrandt. Both fighters excel in the standup department, but Almeida has more tools on the feet and should be able to finish Garbrandt early in the fight. Garbrandt could mix it up by taking Almeida down -- and that’s what he should do -- but I doubt he’ll go in that direction. Thomas Almeida via TKO; Round 1.

Eddie Mercado: The power of Garbrandt vs the various tools of Almeida… in a 5 round fight. If Almeida can avoid early trouble and find a way to zap some of the steam from Garbrandt’s punches, then I can see him pouring it on in the later rounds to get the finish. Should be exciting no matter what! Thomas Almeida by TKO; Round 4.

Zane Simon: I just don’t think Garbrandt has the technical depth yet to make Almeida pay regularly for making mistakes. And I think Almeida is growing smarter and better about the chances he takes and the strikes he uses. Garbrandt is almost certainly going to have to land more than one big shot, and hurt Almeida more than once to put him away, and when Almeida gets hurt he tends to turn things up and fight better. And it’s not like Garbrandt hasn’t been hittable against opponents willing and able to throw at him. Thomas Almeida via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Almeida: Jed, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Phil, Eddie, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Garbrandt: Anton

Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens

Anton Tabuena: Stephens is really a live dog here. There’s a lot of question marks on Barao and how he will look after two incredibly bad and long beatings. And now he’s moving up to face someone who is bigger and hits even harder. If Barao fights patiently and just tries to use his speed and technique to pick him apart, he has a very very good chance of winning, but his willingness to trade and stay in the pocket may be his downfall. Barao is the safe pick, but don’t be shocked if Stephens takes him out in an upset. Renan Barao by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Dillashaw took about 15 million strikes to put Barao out in their 2nd fight, so Barao’s chin isn’t the problem. I think the knockout wins he got over Wineland and Faber have mischaracterized him a bit as being more dangerous standing than he is on the ground. Barao’s a very good striker, but I think he’s more talented as a top-control grappler with his Nova Uniao arm-triangle choking abilities. Stephens is not an easy matchup for him in his UFC 145 lbs debut, but for all of Jeremy’s punching power, he really thrives primarily on fights with a lot of chaos in it. This is why Bermudez is a perfect matchup for him and Holloway could pick him apart systematically and stuff his takedowns. If Barao gets into a firefight, that’s bad, but I think he has what it takes to shut down Stephens’ offense to get the decision win. Renan Barao by unanimous decision.

Jed Meshew: I think people are sleeping on how fun of a fight this is. This will be our first look at Barao as a featherweight in the UFC and I’m interested to see how the change suits him. His speed should be a nice advantage at 145 it’s just a matter of if his power translate upwards. Neither man should be able to take the other down so we are looking at a kickboxing match. Barao throws more volume but Stephens is more accurate and has that world ender power. Barao would be best served staying on the outside and feeding Stephens a steady diet of leg kicks instead of getting drawn into a firefight with a guy in possession of much heavier artillery and a full class bigger than Barao is used to. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that for 15 minutes; Barao throws at a good rate which means he gets hit at a decent rate and Stephens is not the guy you wanna get hit by. Dillashaw jawed Barao twice. Stephens will put him in a box. Stephens by KO, round 2.

Nick Baldwin: Renan Barao hasn’t been the same since his first loss to T.J. Dillashaw and that’s not changing anytime soon. I can’t rely on Barao’s confidence and him being mentally strong anymore. Physically, he’s also different. I think his timing and speed is worse. He’s perhaps not as accurate. That said, I don’t think Jeremy Stephens is good enough to beat a fighter like Barao. Barao is smart, despite his recent setbacks, and picks Stephens apart on the feet en route to a decision. Renan Barao via Unanimous Decision.

Eddie Mercado: The odds on this match are a little long for my liking. Sure, Barao is a former champion but I’m not sure if Barao will have the power to hurt Stephens on the feet. I am also uncertain of Barao’s ability to achieve a takedown in this fight. I can see Barao starting with a lot of volume but becoming a bit gunshy as he tastes the power of Stephens. Jeremy Stephens via TKO; Round 2.

Zane Simon: Jeremy Stephens gets all the credit in the world for being a monstrous power striker, but if we’re being real, other than KOing a green Rafael aos Anjos, he rarely puts away elite competition. Mostly it’s because he hasn’t been able to pull the trigger often enough to do more than hurt an opponent. The Dennis Bermudez fight is probably his best showing in that regard and it saw him hurt and hit a lot and his success owed a lot to Bermudez’s "defense last" style of striking. Barao is not that dude. He tends to draw opponents into charging him and then returns fire fast and hard. And Stephens, for all his power, has rarely been a great returning strikes while getting hit. I think Stephens spends too much time at range getting picked off by kicks, and if it hits the mat he’ll get overwhelmed. Renan Barao via decision.

Staff picking Barao: Mookie, Nick, Tim, Anton, Phil, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Stephens: Jed, Eddie

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story

Anton Tabuena: If that cut on his knee doesn’t affect him, which I doubt it will, this is Tarec’s fight to lose. Story may be able to grind him up and make things ugly, but Saffiedine should have a significant advantage on the feet. Tarec Saffiedine by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Probably would pick Saffiedine had we not known about the cut Saffiedine suffered on his knee a few days ago, which nearly resulted in his removal from the event. Story hasn’t fought in over a year, which gives me concern over potential cage rust on his side of the table. Saffiedine can probably leg kick and takedown stuff his way to a victory here, but he also isn’t nearly powerful enough to end a fight at any given moment. It’s a bit of a gamble, but Saffiedine knowingly not coming into this fight at 100% has chased me away from picking him. Story will get the win with his wrestling and doing just enough on the feet, even against a better striker. Rick Story by unanimous decision.

Jed: Both of these guys are sneaky good welterweights. Saffiedine is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC and I’m of the opinion that Rick Story should undefeated since his loss to Demian Maia in 2012 and as we’ve seen there is absolutely no shame in losing to Demian Maia. Story has also fought better competition than Saffiedine and has just looked sharper. Add in the fact that Saffiedine almost withdrew from this bout a week ago and I’m definitely feeling another upset here. If Saffiedine keeps it standing and kicks Story’s leg off, don’t be surprised but seems more likely that Story can hold his own on the feet and score some takedowns to win rounds. Story by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Big fan of both guys, will be a shame to see one of them lose. We don’t know how Story will look, but I think that injuries have really ravaged Tarec Saffiedine, and that his prime slipped past us just after he won the Strikeforce strap. Since hitting the UFC one of the things which has really struck me is how fragile he’s been. Hyun Gyu Lim dropped him (no shame there) but Rory knocked him cold, and Ellenberger knocked him down with a grazing shot. Story is an excellent pressure fighter- ultra durable, very strong cardio, happy to take shots to deal attritional damage. He was able to bully prime Thiago Alves, and Alves was much stronger, tougher and more dangerous than Tarec looks nowadays. Rick Story by TKO, round 2.

Eddie Mercado: Both guys have been at war with injuries which sucks because both guys are pretty darn good. Story has not fought inside the octagon since 2014 where Saffiedine had a lone fight this past January. Man, i’m just hoping that both guys are healthy. So many unknowns in this fight but i’m going to lean towards Story. I think he will be able to mix it up better than Saffiedine and possibly get a late finish. Rick Story by TKO; Round 3.

Zane Simon: I can’t honestly imagine picking Rick Story off this layoff. I realize he’s got the style to beat Saffiedine and I realize that Saffiedine may be injured in a way that hampers him, but it’s been years (multiple) since Story last fought. Maybe he’s back and in amazing form, but I’m not taking that feeling to the bank. Tarec Saffiedine via SD.

Staff picking Saffiedine: Anton, Zane
Staff picking Story: Jed, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Phil, Eddie, Stephie

Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda

Mookie Alexander: Just read Phil’s stuff. Chris Camozzi by unanimous decision.

Jed: Miranda is a decent kickboxer with good power and sharp leg kicks but he is also pretty hittable on the feet and not real good at stopping takedowns. On the other hand Camozzi is about the middling-est middleweight that ever middled a weight. That being said, he is nothing if not durable and should be able to eat the power strikes of Miranda. Camozzi’s not a killer on the feet but he has a serviceable arsenal of attacks and he keeps a higher work rate than Miranda. Camozzi is also almost a decade younger than Miranda and has shown real improvement lately, especially in the wrestling game. Either my read is way off or the public’s is because Camozzi at +200 seems very wrong to me. I think on the feet Camozzi’s volume will score points and takedowns should seal the rounds for him. Camozzi by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: The outskirts of the destroyed town still smoldered, where the buildings had been built of young, sap-rich pine, but towards the center the older houses were old and dry, and had burned like torches. They were still as the old man guided Duke Camozzi towards the town square. "Those men laid waste to everything" he said. "Four of them. Terrible they were. They kept shouting ‘A new power arises! Lord Bisping cannot protect you!’" The only thing left behind was a standard embedded in the ground in the center of the square, jutting out of the blackened earth. The tapestry at the top depicted a tiger mid-way through a wheel kick in front of an audience of watching faces.

"Why do you think some of those watching are rolling their eyes?" asked the old man, fearful. "Because wheel kicks are stupid," said Camozzi absently. The insignia was naggingly familiar. "... but why did they leave this standard? And you alive to explain? Is it a message? Or is it..."The old man went white and backed away. Camozzi heard footsteps and the creaking of leather. Soldiers began to stream out of the charred houses around the square, and Camozzi saw the tiger insignia on their uniforms. The old man ran away through the soldiers, as a man with a bladed nose strode out through their ranks.

"Duke Camozzi!" He shouted. "My name is Luthor. I am here to kill you."

Camozzi glanced around, frowned. "Are you sure you have enough soldiers?"

"They’re not here to fight," said Luthor. "Just to witness the beginning of a new age. A more exciting age. This endless, turgid cycle of Scrapper, BJJ Guy and Volume Puncher? We are here to break it."

"And this is how you break cycles? Killing innocents? Burning towns?" Luthor smiled.

"My King is... gentle. It took me time to convince him of the necessity of uniting with his defeated foes, still longer for him to believe that destroying this town was necessary to draw out Bisping’s Dog." As Luthor spoke, Camozzi’s nagging sense of familiarity became a certainty. "We are the new power in this land," continued Luthor. "We are…"

"...The Flashy but Periodically Disappointing Kickboxers." said Camozzi.

Luthor’s expression darkened. "I dislike that name."

"It remains yours, regardless. Yours and those with you. I know of all four of you, including your supposed king."

"Then know you are outmatched, Duke Camozzi. You are one of the symptoms of the plague of mediocrity on this land… but we will bring glory to back to the great and generic land of Middleweight. We will ride to the top of this division on a wave of Scrapper blood, over the broken bones of Volume Punchers and BJJ Guys…"

Camozzi tugged slightly at his gloves, testing them. "... until you fall apart, of course. As you always do."

Luthor stepped forward. Chris Camozzi by unanimous decision.

Nick Baldwin: Uhh, I think Miranda knocks out Camozzi. But the real question is, why are you reading my breakdown and not Phil’s for the 67th time? Vitor Miranda via TKO; Round 1

Eddie Mercado: Yea, what Phil said. Chris Camozzi by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Phil’s got this, but I think there’s a chance that when Miranda falls apart Camozzi TKOs him. Chris Camozzi via TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Camozzi: Jed, Mookie, Phil, Tim, Anton, Eddie, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Miranda: Nick

Lorenz Larkin vs. Jorge Masvidal

Mookie Alexander: Great fight. Masvidal is more well-rounded and is the better fighter on paper. Very good striking, solid takedown defense, good grappling from the top, and to be cliched, pure veteran savvy and toughness. Larkin’s gotten a lot better since dropping to 170, as his power translates better and his kicking game gave Albert Tumenov serious issues. We could see fireworks in this bout, but I believe that Masvidal is the craftier fighter and will score some big strikes and even resort to takedowns if he needs to. Who knows? Maybe they’ll duke it out for 15 minutes and this is our FOTN. I hope it is. Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision.

Jed: I’m starting to think I’m crazy because this is the 4th fight in a row where the odds seem off to me. Larkin has looked good since dropping to welterweight but I’m all in on the Masvidal bandwagon. Dude should be undefeated since losing to Gilbert Melendez in 2011. He’s keeps a high pace, works well on top, and is crafty as all get out. This man tapped Michael Chiesa which is no joke. Larkin is definitely talented but I think he’s a little behind in the areas that are likely to manifest themselves in this fight. Masvidal by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Two things push me towards Larkin here: firstly is the way that Masvidal gets dropped so often in fights. Secondly and more significantly is the way that everyone who has had success against Larkin recently has had to wade through fire to do it. The Ponz and Tumenov both had to put serious, consistent pressure on Larkin whilst taking hits for their trouble- it worked for Albert, didn’t work for The Ponz. If Masvidal is in a situation where he’s landing 2 or 3 jabs but Larkin keeps chewing his leg up, does Jorge grit his teeth and keep on top of Larkin, forcing his game through... or does he slip back into "Masvidal Competing Mode"? Historically I think he does the latter. Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: I’m a big fan of both guys. Masvidal has become such the professional since his days of street fighting on the same platform as Kimbo Slice. Larkin plays no games and is looking to finish to add to his 10 ko victories. Although Masvidal seems to be the more rounded of the two fighters, his knack for a slow start might get him into some hot water here. Lorenz Larkin by KO; Round 1.

Zane Simon: Is Andrey Koreshkov really the next great thing at welterweight? Or are fighters like Benson Henderson and (by extension) Jorge Masvidal kidding themselves when they think that they can be top flight 170lb fighters? The truth may be somewhere in the middle, but I have the feeling that this is where Masvidal leans into that latter category. Normally, in a style matchup like this I’d pick the rock tough and much more diverse game of Masvidal to take a win over a slightly one-dimensional and beatable Larkin... But at 170 lbs, where Larkin’s not giving up any speed but has a bunch of size on Masvidal? I just don’t trust the shorter fighter to be able to close distance and keep from getting picked apart at range, especially given Masvidal’s tendency to get complacent in a fight he’s losing. Larkin has been tightening up his problem spots, and has become much better at finding his game. I think he takes this. Lorenz Larkin via decision.

Staff picking Larkin: Tim, Phil, Eddie, Zane
Staff picking Masvidal: Jed, Mookie, Nick, Anton, Stephie

Josh Burkman vs. Paul Felder

Mookie Alexander: Think I’ve seen enough of Burkman in the UFC to suggest whatever run of wins he had in WSOF is in no way indicative of his sustaining another run inside the Octagon. Felder smokes him. Paul Felder by TKO, round 2.

Jed: Yet another fun, well made scrap. Burkman should have a small size advantage as well as the edge in power but Felder is the cleaner, more technical striker and throws more on the feet. On top of that I feel like Felder has more room for growth and Burkman is on the downslope of his career. Burkman will likely mix it up with the occasional takedown which may make the fight closer than it otherwise would be but I still expect Felder to win fun decision. Felder by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: This fight should be great but could be terrible. Burkman can suck people into weird fights, and Felder hasn’t exactly been impossible to derail. A fight where they both pot-shot with odd strikes and Felder glares at Burkman like he’s trying to explode his head with the sheer power of fury is a possibility. A more action-packed affair would be nice though. Felder should win either way: more technical on the feet, more durable, and very hard to take down. Paul Felder by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: I hope this lives up to its potential of being a good ol’ fashioned slobber knocker! Paul felder is a hard hitting striker looking to come straight forward. Josh Burkman is a seasoned veteran who isn’t shy about biting down on his mouthpiece and trading in the pocket. I like Burkman but it’s hard for me to see a clear avenue to victory for him. Paul Felder by TKO; Round 2.

Zane Simon: Burkman doesn’t seem like he knows when to pull the trigger anymore and he’s becoming more hurtable when he does decide to. Felder isn’t the most nuanced striker, but he’s big enough and powerful enough to scare Burkman off and consistent enough to win rounds while Burkman waits and watches. Paul Felder via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Burkman:
Staff picking Felder: Jed, Mookie, Phil, Nick, Tim, Anton, Eddie, Stephie, Zane

Jessica Eye vs. Sara McMann

Mookie Alexander: I’ve really hoped for Sara McMann to be better than she has been in the UFC, but it’s not panned out. Something is not right with the way she’s developed as an MMA fighter, and the Nunes fight was a telltale sign that she’s well off the contender path. Mind you, Jessica Eye only has 1 official UFC win, and her tendency to just … not fight smart, has cost her way too often. Coinflip fight, picking Eye. Jessica Eye by split decision.

Jed: I know Jessica Eye is getting a lot of love in this fight but I don’t really get it. McMann has performed below expectations but it’s not like Eye has been lighting the world on fire either. McMann isn’t a great striker but she has natural power and is different level of athlete than Eye. Eye’s a striker but she’s hittable on the feet, not a great wrestler, and she’s not good at standing back up. Eye may be able to fend of the takedown early but by the third round she is definitely not going to be able to keep it standing so McMann just needs to be able to win one of the first 2 rounds. I fully expect her to do that. McMann by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: These two have just been plain disappointing in the UFC. They just haven’t developed from what they once were: a decent striker and a strong wrestler, respectively. Both are at the point where they should actually be peaking in their careers, however, so there’s one last chance that they show us something different / better. McMann is the superior athlete but doesn’t seem to enjoy MMA all that much. I’ll take Eye for being at a better camp and looking more like she wants to be there. Jessica Eye by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: With both competitors coming off of back to back losses, I hope each fighter is out to prove that they want it more than the other. McMann is the better wrestler and the more athletic of the two but Eye seems to be more of a pure fighter. It’s 50/50. Sara McMann by Split Decision.

Zane Simon: I don’t trust either of these fighters worth a damn. Eye has a habit of putting her chin up on a tee to be hit when she throws and a worse habit of making terrible fight decisions as to when to clinch and wrestle. But, McMann just seems like she doesn’t really have a complete MMA game geared around winning rounds clearly or finishing opponents. I could easily see McMann getting takedowns and then getting outworked from top control. That could lead to an ugly split, but either way, I’m leaning toward Eye to work harder and do more. Jessica Eye via decision.

Staff picking Eye: Mookie, Nick, Anton, Phil, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking McMann: Jed, Tim, Eddie

Jordan Rinaldi vs. Abel Trujillo

Jed: Rinaldi is well-rounded but he’s coming in on short notice and facing a bad style matchup. Trujillo is the better wrestler and Rinaldi isn’t going to be Abel to withstand Trujillo’s power. Trujillo by KO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Trujillo has good takedown defense for about a round or two; how well it holds up is dependent on how much pushback he gets. He’s not a great technician on the feet but is very quick and hits dumb hard. Rinaldi’s probing but not particularly safe style seems poorly made to beat him. If it goes deep I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trujillo get choked, but Abel Trujillo by TKO, round 1

Eddie Mercado: A fighter’s UFC debut often adds a certain degree of difficulty... especially on short notice… especially against the heavy hitting and hyper athletic Abel Trujillo. Abel Trujillo by KO; Round 1.

Zane Simon: This feels like a stylistic layup for Turjillo, who has a habit of falling apart at random times. Turjillo is the easy pick and I expect him to win, but I don’t know how much I trust him. Abel Trujillo via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Rinaldi:
Staff picking Trujillo: Jed, Phil, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Anton, Eddie, Stephie, Zane

Jake Collier vs. Alberto Uda

Jed: Uda has amassed an undefeated record on the small circuit whereas Collier has been fairly disappointing in the UFC losing 2 of 3. Collier can do a bit of everything and keeps a good pace whereas Uda is a good grappler but not a great wrestler. On top of that, Collier is fighting to stave off a pink slip and I’m wary of picking Brazilian prospects making their debuts. I think Collier will be able to keep it on the feet and win rounds with volume. Collier by narrow decision.

Phil Mackenzie: You might think that Uda is a BJJ Guy With A Suspect Gas Tank, but he’s actually a consistent Scrapper archetype- closest to being a Brazilian Scott Askham, albeit even more specialized around clinch striking. Thus, extremely clunky but really freakishly super strong and dangerous in the plumm. Collier should be able to work from range, the question is whether he gets tied up too much and essentially, whether his style has the durability necessary to function in the UFC. In general if I had more confidence in his offensive wrestling I might pick Collier, but I think his aggression puts him into the clinch too many times. Alberto Uda by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Collier has never shown the ability to keep a fight in the area that he’s winning, or even necessarily consistently win from minute to minute in the area that he’s technically better. His game is a mile wide and an inch deep and it allows him to compete everywhere without necessarily ever being safe anywhere. If Collier gives Uda the clinch, or dives into Uda’s guard (and I feel certain he will) I think he’ll be in big trouble. Alberto Uda via TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Collier: Jed, Nick, Tim, Anton, Eddie
Staff picking Uda: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Zane

Shane Campbell vs. Erik Koch

Anton Tabuena: I’m not picking a guy who is coming off a 2 year layoff, and losses on 3 of his last 4 before that. Shane Campbell by Decision.

Jed: Man this card really is very fun all the way down. Campbell is more skilled on the feet and throws more but Koch probably has more power. Campbell is also more likely to mix things up with a takedown. Koch was once a top prospect but it’s been 2 years since he last fought and that is too long a layoff to feel comfortable picking him here. Campbell by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: As with Story above, a giant X-factor is how the hell Koch is going to look after a very long time away. He’s approximately a less turbo-powered version of gymmate Anthony Pettis, with a slightly low-pace but dynamic kickboxing game backed up with an aggressive guard. Similar problems with transition games and how they further drop his volume. Campbell is a lesser athlete and probably a weaker grappler should it go there, but he’s also a very consistent volume threat. Think most likely outcomes are Koch finishing Campbell early or losing a decision on numbers. Shane Campbell by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: How do you pick someone coming off of a two year layoff? Campbell has fought five times since Koch has last fought and there is something to be said for consistency. So many unknowns with Koch but from what i've seen, he only loses to a certain caliber of fighter and i’m not convinced that Campbell is that. Erik Koch by Submission; Round 3.

Zane Simon: Shane Campbell is pretty unathletic. But he makes up for it with smooth, technical striking and a toughness and indomitable will that few fighters can match. If you don’t kill Campbell, he’s the kind of fighter that will claw every inch he can get out of a fight. That toughness and technique along with Koch’s durability issues and layoff (and concussion problems) make Campbell feel like a good pick. Shane Campbell via TKO, Round 3.

Staff picking Campbell: Jed, Mookie, Phil, Nick, Anton, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Koch: Tim, Eddie

Bryan Caraway vs. Aljamain Sterling

Mookie Alexander: Don’t expect Sterling to get the finish here, but I do expect him to get the win. Caraway is a really tough out for most in this division, so if Sterling runs through him then that’ll be excellent. Sterling doesn’t use his hands too often due to his admitted issues with his hands breaking, so he’s heavily reliant on his kicking game. In which case, Caraway will have to contend with primarily one form of distance striking. On the ground, Sterling has the wrestling chops to keep Caraway on his back and from there, it’ll be all about how well Sterling can control Caraway and whether or not he’ll have to defend submissions. I think Sterling takes the decision. Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision.

Jed: This fight is closer than the odds indicate. Having said that, I still expect Sterling to win clearly. Sterling is still developing and Caraway has the skills to make him work for it but Sterling’s coming into this with way more offensive potency and athleticism. Sterling by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: I can very much see the ways that this could go wrong for Sterling. Caraway is the better boxer, and an extraordinarily crafty grappler. However, the main thing is that I have to see that if it hits the ground here, it’ll be on Sterling’s terms. The other big thing is that while Caraway has much improved striking, I also remember him getting slightly stranded by Perez’s kicking game- does he have the footspeed to get in past Sterling’s outer layer? I don’t quite think so. This may be more of a dull kickboxing affair than people perhaps expect, but Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision.

Nick Baldwin: Just haven’t been impressed with Caraway. At all. I don’t think he can make this close. Sterling is on another level, in my opinion. He controls Caraway on the ground and gets the finish. Aljamain Sterling via Submission; Round 1.

Eddie Mercado: This boils down to a FiQ (Fight IQ) test for Sterling. Can he remain smart against a guy with 20 wins, 17 of which were by submission? Sterling has every bit of youth and strength on his side here but… Bryan Caraway by Submission; Round 1.

Zane Simon: This could end up be a stupid tough fight for Sterling if he can’t get control of the ground battle. His ability to time his shots and chain wrestle make me think that he’ll end up on top where he’ll be able to shut down Caraway’s grappling over the long haul. But, if his shot entries fail him and he can’t get takedowns easily, he could end up in an ugly ass fight that will be totally up for grabs. Sterling by decision.

Staff picking Caraway: Eddie
Staff picking Sterling: Jed, Phil, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Zane

Chris De La Rocha vs. Adam Milstead

Jed: Not expecting too much out of either guy here. Milstead is riding a nice winning streak and appears to be the better athlete. I’ll go with him. Milstead by KO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: This is the bottom end of the UFC’s recent "throw tons of stuff at a wall and see what sticks" strategy for heavyweight. Milstead is a better athlete and a harder hitter. Adam Milstead by KO, round 1.

Zane Simon: Milstead is very willing to stand in the pocket and throw bombs, which makes him super dangerous at the low end of heavyweight (and super open at the higher ends). CdlR is at the lower end, so I think Milstead gets by him. But with two tough 6’ 3" dudes who will probably get into a firefight, it’s really hard to be confident in anything. Adam Milstead via KO, Round 1.

Staff picking De La Rocha:
Staff picking Milstead: Jed, Phil, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Eddie, Stephie, Zane