UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs. Thompson - Idiot's Guide to Ovince St. Preux vs Rafael Cavalcante

A high octane, low-ish stakes light heavyweight bout between Strikeforce ex-prospects stirs the violence this February 6, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Match Up

Light Heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux 18-7 vs. Rafael Cavalcante 12-6-1 NC

The Odds

Light Heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux -440 vs. Rafael Cavalcante +350

3 Things You Should Know

1. OSP is still the athletic and explosive athlete your lazy stereotype using broadcaster excited you about.

OSP is coming off a rough and tumble loss to Glover Teixeria. For some reason I thought OSP had a real shot to upset Glover in that fight, but Glover fought as tactical a bout as he could, and made it all look effortless. It's hard to predict OSP's career trajectory because his performances fluctuate so much. That's the sign of a fighter who is technically raw, and therefore has trouble figuring out the individual differences in each opponent. Theoretically, this is his "lay up", so we'll see how he handles Feijao.

2. Cavalcante is on his last legs. But just like a legless zombie from Call of Duty, underestimate his handicap at your own peril.

Cavalcante really seemed poised to make some noise at LHW. But nothing has gone right for him ever since he got popped for stanozolol. Losing to Patrick Cummins has been the career nail in his trajectory coffin.

3. Closer fight than the odds indicate, but the finish will be dramatically in OSP's favor.

This fight feels spiritually fitting. OSP isn't the craftiest technician, but he battles hard to win fights. Cavalcante is one of the more craftier technicians, and yet he battles lazily to lose them. If I'm overstepping my boundaries, I apologize in advance, but he's looked awful at times for a fighter with such refined technique in all facets of the game.

His best asset is his striking though. He's a big guy that's hard to take down and has grappling skills, but he packs a punch inside a a red shell; able to swiftly land strikes in and out of traffic.

As much as I favor OSP, there's no doubt he shouldn't be such a heavy favorite. He's good at threading the boxing needle, finding opportunities with his speed regardless of the pressure being faced. His problems come from picking his sports defensively, and knowing when to let up. Luckily he's a savvy transition fighter, which is more critical than usual at light heavyweight .

Prediction

OSP should be able to get his left hand through enough. His general movement, and quickness will break Rafael's rhythm as the fight wears on. I'm not terribly confident, as I said. Feijao may look like he's wounded, and he is, but there are definitely some spiritual as well as technical similarities to the Feijao versus Yoel Romero bout. Then again Feijao would get smoked nowadays. But still, Feijao's ability to handle athletes with physical advantages that are rough around the edges is well documented. Gotta go with my gut on this one though. Ovince Saint Preux by TKO, round 3.