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On Wednesday, Dana White confirmed that Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman would have an immediate rematch at UFC 199 in June, much to the annoyance of those who are against immediate rematches of fights that otherwise ended in decisive fashion. The initial plan was to set up Rockhold against Yoel Romero, who narrowly defeated Ronaldo Souza in a fight immediately preceding Weidman vs. Rockhold I at UFC 194.
I can understand where people are coming from with regards to Rockhold vs. Weidman II. If Romero hadn't had his "potential failure", then Rockhold vs. Romero should've been the fight to make right away, with Weidman facing Jacare in the interim. With that said, looking at the landscape of middleweight as it stands right now, for my money, the immediate rematch is best possible fight to make in the division. Their first fight was very competitive and quite close (at least to me) before Weidman's spinning kick missed and Rockhold slaughtered him from top position in rounds 3 and 4.
What the presumptive loss of Romero -- provided his B sample doesn't contradict his initial positive test -- does underscore is just how badly middleweight is lacking in contender depth, which is astonishing considering how wide open the division looked just two years ago.
If you subtract Rockhold and Weidman, take a look at the rest of the top 15:
Coming off a loss/NC
#2 - Jacare Souza (even with Romero's test failure, it still stands on his record as a loss)
#4 - Lyoto Machida (2 fight losing streak)
#5 - Tim Kennedy (hasn't fought since September 2014)
#8 - Gegard Mousasi
#9 - Thales Leites
#10 - Anderson Silva (NC vs. Diaz, technically hasn't won at middleweight since July 2012)
#11 - Uriah Hall
#14 - Dan Henderson
Analysis and notes: Jacare's fight with Romero wasn't particularly impressive even if you argued that he should've gotten the judge's decision, at which point his last big win is vs. Mousasi in September 2014. Machida has a loss to Weidman and was destroyed by Rockhold and Romero back-to-back, which is why he's fighting Dan Henderson again and nowhere near a title shot. Kennedy is virtually inactive thus really has no case for being in the title picture right now. Mousasi has losses to Jacare and Machida, not to mention the fact that his wins at 185 are against Philippou (retired), Munoz (retired), and Henderson (seemingly won't ever retire). Leites is fighting Mousasi at the end of this month, but generally losing to Bisping isn't a positive sign for title shot aspirations. Anderson may get a title shot if he beats Bisping impressively, if not entirely because he's become a PPV draw and is the greatest middleweight of all-time. Uriah Hall doesn't have a fight booked and despite the upset win over Mousasi, has shown zero consistency to suggest that he's ever going to break through to the upper tier of 185. Dan Henderson arguably shouldn't be ranked anymore.
Coming off a win
#3 - Vitor Belfort
#6 - Michael Bisping
#7 - Robert Whittaker
#12 - Derek Brunson
#13 - Rafael Natal
#15 - Roan Carneiro
Analysis and notes: Vitor Belfort's two wins since KOing Luke Rockhold in May 2013 are both against Dan Henderson. The only argument you can make for what would be Belfort's 4th title shot in 5 years is his previous win over Rockhold. Belfort is facing Jacare, Brunson is fighting Carneiro, Natal just fought last week, Bisping is fighting Silva, which leaves Whittaker without an opponent. Only Bisping has a win over a current top 10 opponent within the last 2 years. Whittaker did beat Uriah Hall when he was ranked #10 at UFC 193, but now he's #11.
Fighters Rockhold has beaten
#2 - Jacare Souza
#4 - Lyoto Machida
#5 - Tim Kennedy
#6 - Michael Bisping
Analysis and notes: The Jacare and Kennedy wins were in Strikeforce and both ended in decisions. Rockhold submitted both Machida and Bisping in the 2nd round of largely one-sided main events. Neither one of those two has a solid case for a rematch any time soon, if ever.
As you can see, viable title challengers are incredibly sparse at the moment. It's Weidman, Jacare, Belfort, and that's pretty much it. The Strikeforce influx may have provided much-needed immediate depth, including the current champion, but it's not panning out as a long-term solution.
Another not-so-hidden secret about middleweight? It's an old division. As much as heavyweight is mocked for being the land of the geezers, middleweight's top 16 (champ + top 15) is only slightly younger than heavyweight's, and that is almost entirely because of Robert Whittaker.
Middleweight (Average age: 34.5, Median age: 35)
Rank |
Fighter |
Age |
C |
Rockhold |
31 |
#1 |
Weidman |
31 |
#2 |
Jacare |
36 |
#3 |
Belfort |
38 |
#4 |
Machida |
37 |
#5 |
Kennedy |
36 |
#6 |
Bisping |
36 |
#7 |
Whittaker |
25 |
#8 |
Mousasi |
30 |
#9 |
Leites |
34 |
#10 |
Silva |
40 |
#11 |
Hall |
31 |
#12 |
Brunson |
32 |
#13 |
Natal |
33 |
#14 |
Henderson |
45 |
#15 |
Carneiro |
37 |
Heavyweight (Average age: 35.56, Median age: 36)
Rank |
Fighter |
Age |
C |
Werdum |
38 |
#1 |
Velasquez |
33 |
#2 |
Miocic |
33 |
#3 |
Overeem |
35 |
#4 |
Arlovski |
37 |
#5 |
Rothwell |
34 |
#6 |
dos Santos |
32 |
#7 |
Browne |
33 |
#8 |
Hunt |
41 |
#9 |
Barnett |
38 |
#10 |
Mir |
36 |
#11 |
Nelson |
39 |
#12 |
Rosholt |
29 |
#13 |
Bigfoot Silva |
36 |
#14 |
Mitrione |
37 |
#15 |
Oliynyk |
38 |
There's an urgent need for new (and preferably young) faces at 185 lbs. Robert Whittaker is already there, which is a very encouraging sign, but they need more Whittaker types or else the division is liable to completely fall apart and look as depth-deprived as light heavyweight. The next few years should be heavily focused on the respective developments of Elias Theodorou, Josh Samman, Tamdan McCrory, and Antonio Carlos Junior, all of whom are under 30. Messrs Belfort, Jacare, Machida, and others do not figure to have much more time left at the highest level of the sport, so it's of paramount importance that there are fighters ready to replace them. Given the state of 185 right now, it has to happen sooner rather than later.