FanPost

My Gambling Solution - UFC Fight Night 84

As I explained last time, I'm only going to break down a single fight on the card (my best bet), instead of all my bets on an entire event. However, unlike last time, I'll make this one shorter (and hopefully sweeter). For UFC Fight Night from London, I'm recommending a play on Krzysztof Jotko. Get at me why I'm wrong in the comments and follow me on Twitter for my other picks/thoughts.

Jotko (-165) v Scott (+145)

In a battle between middling middleweights, Pole Krzysztof Jotko (I'll never not have to google how to spell his first name) takes on London's Brad Scott. Jotko currently sits as a small to moderate favorite, but I favor him considerably to get the win over the home-town Scott, and plan to make a decent wager.

Jotko is a bit of a jack-of-all trades that relies on his pace, transitional fighting between phases, and excellent grappling instincts. He's small for the division, and not one of its better athletes, but is scrappy and fearless in all areas. If there's one area that Jotko really excels, it's the clinch, where he is competent in both grappling and controlling the position, as well as landing knees and elbows. Jotko is a southpaw that will land a straight left from time to time, and can fight on both the lead and the counter. He has decent movement from the outside and above-average pressuring footwork, but once he corners a man, he often loses discipline and opts to throw wide, winging shots with his chin high in the air.

Despite what the UFC commentary team may tell you about Scott's boxing or Muay Thai style, the London fighter really is a meat and potatoes, straight punches into a takedown and ground and pound into submission fighter. Scott can certainly pack a punch in his straight right hand if it lands, but homeboy is slow and plodding. If his opponent allows himself to be cornered, Scott does his best work throwing a couple punches, grinding against the cage and dragging his opponent to the ground with a simple double leg or clinch takedown, where he'll look to land heavy shots from top. Scott carries around a bit of extra weight and tends to fade in fights. He's dangerous with guillotines and front chokes, but hasn't shown much skill off of his back.

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This is where Brad Scott thrives... he just won't be able to get it there.

In this fight, I see Jotko gradually pouring on more and more offense en route to a unanimous decision victory. Scott's A-game is over-powering guys and putting them on their backs, but he lacks the technical or explosive takedown skills to do that at a high level. Jotko, on the other hand, has superb takedown defense and phenomenal hips which allow him to either stay on his feet even with his opponent deep on his hips, or turn the position around to end up on top. Jotko was able to do exactly this against his past two opponents, Tor Troeng and Scott Askham, and expect more of that here.

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Jotko displaying his excellent balance and takedown defense

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Jotko has a knack for landing on top.

On the feet, Jotko is much more active, faster fighter. He lacks some defensive fundamentals, but Scott is both too slow and not powerful enough to capitalize. Additionally, Jotko can and will fight on the offensive as well as counter, whereas Scott almost always needs to lead the striking to be effective. On top of that, Jotko's pace and advantages in the takedown battles will lead to Scott tiring considerably over the course of the fight. In his third UFC fight, we saw Scott lose a lackluster decision after dropping the final round to Claudio Silva, who is, quite frankly, not a very good welterweight, much less a top middleweight.

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Brad Scott with the Ronda Rousey-esque ring cutting. He won't be able to put Jotko where he wants him.

Scott is always a threat with his front chokes, but he tends to catch them in transitions, which is exactly where Jotko excels. Look for Jotko to beat up Scott in all phases of the fight, which will lead to Scott growing more and more tired and desperate as the fight goes on. He lacks the one-hitter-quitter power to pose a threat the entire fight, and Jotko will take away Scott's A-game with his pace and excellent takedown defense.

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I'm expecting Jotko to punish each and ever takedown attempt. Scott gonna gas, cash it.

As I write this, Jotko sits at -165, and I favor him closer to -275. I'm betting him straight up for a moderate to large play at current odds. If the line moves to around -200, I'll look for a parlay to put him in to, but this card isn't very strong for favorites and parlays, so you may have to go outside of MMA to find a proper parlay link (when do the Warriors play?).

Good luck, ya degenerates!

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.