FanPost

A Degenerate's Journal: Gambling On UFC 204

UFC Fight Night: Dodson vs Lineker was a bumpy ride. When there are ups and downs and you play this game like the Shawn Michaels of gambling you're either going to crash or burn by the end.

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Bookies, we got two words for you.....

This time around I burned. Luckily not a 3rd degree Freddy Krueger level burn, more like getting a 7-11 cup of hot coffee and not putting the lid on tight enough and you decide to chug it but because the lid is loose it spills all over your face. Maybe my analogies need some work, but you get it. I let my night ride on John Dodson, and it did not go my way.

Anyways, lets do a quick reflection of those bets which you can see here:

  • Brooks by decision was obviously a disaster. Not much to take from it. I expected a tough fight, but at -105 it was hard to pass on. The only redflag I saw was I thought maybe taking the Pearson fight on short notice played a part in not completely fulfilling his potential in that one, and considering he got married and went on a honeymoon inbetween Pearson and Cowboy fights, this played with that same fire. Luckily I was able to hedge my bet with a livebet on Brazilian Cowboy after round 2

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  • Smolka inside the distance was dumb as well. All of the value was on the under at plus odds.
  • My biggest problem as a gambler was exposed in the Burkman fight. I do a great job live betting fights. But i'm such a damned degenerate, I can't help but take prefight action in some way. I wasn't dumb enough to put Burkman in a main parlay, but I was dumb enough to put him to win by decision and his moneyline in my round robins. That was enough to deter me from hitting Ottow after round 1 at -115. So huge note to self on this one, control yourself better!!! Certainly i've grown from my days of blowing portions of my winnings betting tennis (a sport I had never watched in my life), but its time to take that control to the next level.

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My guy was winning, but I LOSE cause he gets hurt toward the end of the match? Fuck you Tennis

  • When you have action on the o1.5 for a Heavyweight fight, and one of the heavyweights is 20 lbs fatter than last time he fought (i'm looking at you Cody East), hedge out. I was scared after seeing that, and I lost my bet by seconds but its my own fault.

I think thats all I have to say about that card. I knew I was playing with fire for that one, it was a tough card to bet, i'm just lucky enough to come out with a only a few hundred lost. To everyone kind enough to actually read through my gambling habits, just know when I do reflections its always going to be about the mistakes. I'm not here to gloat about any bets i've won, i'm here to identify my mistakes.

Lets move on to UFC 204

THE BETS

Bisping/Mousasi -- $200 to win $171.50

Henderson is too slow and too predictable, Vitor is too clean and too deteriorated. I'm not underestimating the fight changing power their opposition has, especially considering this is Hendo's retirement fight so i'm expecting him to give all he possibly can. With that said, Bisping has become too smart to get caught here by a slower fighter whos one handed with his strikes. I'd also like to note my plans to sprinkle some money on Bisping in round 3, 4, and 5.

OSP vs Manuwa over 1.5 rds - $74.07 to win $100

I like the value here. Unless these guys come out swinging with more volume and aggression than usual, I think there is a good chance they both patiently try to play their games while the other is defensive enough to not allow it lead to a fight ender in under 1.5 rounds.

Struve/Tumenov -- $170 to win $178

Struve is one of my most confident picks. I think people over exaggerate how much of a flake he is, maybe cause expectations were fairly high for him at one point. His win over Nog was uninspiring, but would anyone be surprised if that version of Nog was able to beat Danny O? This is a dude who lost a round to Jarjis Danho. I think the only way he can beat Struve is if Struve stares at him from range trying to figure things out while Danny is at least willing to throw. That would be a frustrating loss, and it is Struve, but I have to believe hes better everywhere.

Tumenov is a scarier pick. The more time goes by, the more worried I am Edwards can fight smart, use his speed, and outpoint Tumenov. I could end up regretting this, but i'll let it ride and hope Tumenov can take the W.

Bektic inside the distance -- $76.32 to win $100

This is a shame for Russell Doane. Dude looked good vs Munhoz before the choke. This strikes me as a bad matchup and its very short notice. I'm not on board the "Bektic is the GOAT prospect" train at all (not yet at least), but I still have to believe with a full camp and healthy he can beastmode through Doane and eventually give him too much ground and pound forcing a stoppage.

Alcantara vs Pickett over 2.5 rds & Martins vs Santos over 1.5 rds -- $130 to win $188

Possibly my favorite parlay. Both Alcantara and Pickett are decision machines. I strongly favor Alcantara, but why risk the home cooking judging when this is just as likely to go the distance and that has the same price?

I'm also confused on the generous price on the o1.5 rounds for Santos vs Martins. Santos has solid boxing defense, especially early, we know hes going to look to clinch and grapple, and we know he'll set up his entry to do so rather than recklessly. Martins is a pure counter striker, and is willing to sit back and wait on opportunities. I would also like to note, I favor a play on Santos or Santos decision here as well. Martins is way too juiced. Santos has grappled bigger guys successfully (Thiago Santos, Ponzinibbio), he looks to be improving fight to fight, and if the standup is competitive at all Martins is not going to out throw Santos and his defense is not very good so he will get tagged.

Font vs Entwistle doesn't start round 2 -- $70 to win $46.36

Simple, i'm playing Entwistle continuing to Entwistle and go for broke in round 1 with a leglock or get smashed.

Davey Grant + Horiguchi/Ali over 2.5 rds (cancelled) -- $150 to win I think around $90?

I will be adding to Davey Grant. His 'in the distance' line will be in my main round robin, and I will play his -3.5 points line*. Shame I waited so long to watch tape on these guys, but what in the actual fuck is Damian Stasiak? Seriously. This dude seemingly does nothing good but transitions from top control. The Meza fight was a mess. Grant isn't going to set the world on fire at 135, but his instincts are good, he has a nice sprawl, and he'll counter Stasiak's horrible entries with good clinch striking. Grant is possibly my most confident pick on the card, so I will be heavier on him than I am at time of posting.

*-3.5 is a line you can bet on 5dimes. It subtracts -3.5 points from judges scorecards. So if I bet Grabt -3.5, I need him to finish the fight or have scorecards of 29-28x2 30-27x1 or better.

Perry vs Roberts under 1.5 rounds -- $84 to win $60

Eh. At -140 i'm not sure this was my most confident play. I just haven't seen enough of either guy. This is straight degenerate, and i'm regretting not just hitting Roberts money line (I probably will anyways). That seems like a better bet to me, especially if you couple it with a hedge bet on Perry round 1. I might flip to that play, but I don't know yet. Degenerate in me is compelled to let it ride.

Diakiese by KO -- $28.50 to win $80

This is a play from my heart. I love Diakiese, one of my favorite prospects. I'm interested what happens if Sajewski can got inside on him, but if Diakiese controls this fight and lives up to his potential I think the value of +280 is worth playing.

ROUND ROBINS

OK so quick note this main one is not made yet, cause I want to add WSOF props, but I will post what it will be

Bisping inside the distance, Gegard inside the distance, Manuwa/OSP goes the distance, Struve by decision, Alcantara by decision, Font/Entwistle doesn't start round 2, Grant -3.5, Tumenov by decision, Roberts, Santos by decision, Diakiese by KO, and if the price is right on these WSOF props High by decision, Gaethje inside the distance, Branch by decision, and Nurmagamedov by decision in 2s and 3s.

Manuwa by decision, Struve in round 3, Bektic in round 3, Entwistle in round 1, Grant in round 3, Roberts in round 2 in 2s and 3s risking $17.50 to win up to $8,061.

CONFIDENCE GRADE

A-

I'm interested to see where my results fall compared to my measures of confidence. I feel good about this event. Very few of my plays do I feel like i'm forcing, and my the ones i've put the most bank behind i'm pretty damned confident in.

Best of luck ya'll. May us degenerates forever prosper.

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