First fan post. There. That's out of the way.
For those of you unfamiliar with the Dwyer Score, Reddit user /u/NickDwyer started compiling the statistics of fighters' recent win/loss streaks under the Zuffa banner to determine the amount of "momentum" a card has. A win is +1 and a loss is -1. Only streaks count toward the score, so a fighter being 3-2-0 in their last 5 does not matter, what matters is the recent win/loss streak they are on.
As of right now UFC 205 has a Dwyer Score of 45. That's huge, in fact it's the highest score of 2016. (UFC 195: +16, UFC 196: +24, UFC 197: +39, UFC 198: +43, UFC 199: +30, UFC 200: +19, UFC 201: +12, UFC 202: +23, UFC 203: -1, UFC 204: +19). I apologize in advance for possibly jinxing the event.
I took the Dwyer Score and added a little more information for people to be able to make observations and connections. Below you will also see fighters' plus/minus overall, last win, last loss and overall record.
|Fight Name||Record (W-L-D)||+/- (Zuffa)||+/- (Overall)||Last Win (For Hype)||Last Loss (For Science)|
|Eddie Alvarez ©||(28-4-0)||3||3||Rafael dos Anjos||Donald Cerrone|
|Conor McGregor||(20-3-0)||1||1||Nate Diaz||Nate Diaz|
|Tyron Woodley ©||(16-3-0)||3||3||Robbie Lawler||Rory MacDonald|
|Stephen Thompson||(13-1-1)||7||7||Rory MacDonald||Matt Brown|
|Joanna Jedrzejczyk ©||(12-0-0)||6||12||Claudia Gadelha||Undefeated|
|Karolina Kowalkiewicz||(10-0-0)||3||10||Rose Numajunas||Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Amateur loss)|
|Chris Weidman||(13-1-0)||-1||-1||Vitor Belfort||Luke Rockhold|
|Yoel Romero||(11-1-0)||7||7||Ronaldo Souza||Rafael Cavalcante|
|Khabib Nurmagomedov||(23-0-0)||7||23||Darrell Horcher||Undefeated|
|Michael Johnson||(17-10-0)||1||1||Dustin Poirier||Nate Diaz|
|Frankie Edgar||(20-5-1)||-1||-1||Chad Mendes||Jose Aldo|
|Jeremy Stephens||(25-12-0)||1||1||Renan Barao||Max Holloway|
|Kelvin Gastelum||(12-2-0)||1||1||Johnny Hendricks||Neil Magny|
|Donal Cerrone||(31-7-0)||3||3||Rick Story||Rafael dos Anjos|
|Rashad Evans||(19-5-1)||-2||-2||Chael Sonnen||Glover Teixeira|
|Tim Kennedy||(18-5-0)||-1||-1||Michael Bisping||Yoel Romero|
|Miesha Tate||(18-6-0)||-1||-1||Holly Holm||Amanda Nunes|
|Raquel Pennington||(8-5-0)||3||3||Elizabeth Phillips||Holly Holm|
|Thiago Alves||(21-10-0)||-1||-1||Jordan Mein||Carlos Condit|
|Jim Miller||(27-8-0)||2||2||Joe Lauzon||Diego Sanchez|
|Rafael Natal||(21-10-0)||-1||-1||Kevin Casey||Robert Wittaker|
|Tim Boetsch||(19-10-0)||1||1||Josh Samman||Ed Herman|
|Liz Carmouche||(10-5-0)||1||1||Lauren Murphy||Miesha Tate|
|Katlyn Chookagian||(8-0-0)||1||8||Lauren Murphy||Undefeated|
|Belal Muhammad||(10-1-0)||1||1||Augusto Montano||Alan Jouban|
|Lyman Good||(19-3-0)||1||5||Andrew Craig||Andrey Koreshkov|
A few of my own observations about this card:
- The first thing to note is the overall fight experience for this card being a whopping 569 professional fights.
- Rashad Evans has only won 2 of his last 6 fights, and the UFC is not doing him any favors giving him the very durable Kennedy in what might be his last fight. Don't be surprised if we see him hang 'em up in his post-fight speech.
- Both Chris Weidman and Yoel Romero are coming off some stellar runs not including Weidman's disastrous wheel kick implosion in his last bout. Chris would have been at a +9 (Zuffa). C'est la vie. The division is currently so stacked in the top 5 that even if one of them was to put the other in a coma they still might not earn a title shot.
- Jeremy Stephens could propel himself above Max Holloway with a win, as Edgar is currently ranked just below the (reportedly) retired Aldo who is now the #1 contender. Bizzare. Then we would see the "Who da f*** is that guy?" clip a thousand times in the build-up.
- In the eyes of many, including the oddsmakers, Cerrone is a favourite in this fight. This is interesting because it would actually bring him up a few spots in the rankings due to him being fairly new in the division.
- There's no point in talking about Conor as I'm sure you'll all read dozens of articles analyzing what he's eating for breakfast. Word on the street is it's usually 1BowlofLuckyCharms.
- JJ vs. KK (still not sure how to pronounce either last name) is a throwback fight going way back to 2012 when they were both amateurs and JJ came out on top. JJ usually delivers fireworks but I think you can expect more than usual in this one.