UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit Sober Play by Play - Carlos' movement failed him, but so did judges

UFC 195 was a smashing success thanks in part, to the main event. Lawler vs. Condit was an instant classic. Let that sink in. So before you sharpen your pitchfork, shine your soapbox, and crack your knuckles like this debate requires Enter the Dragon theatrics, let us first agree that this was one of the finest examples of mixed martial arts drama in recent memory.

Credit to both men, first and foremost. In the aftermath, a debate about the 10 point must system, and what constitutes significant strikes ensued. Before getting to that, let's study the tape and see if our eyes match the stats to confirm the most agreeable outcome.

Round 1

4:28 The round was been the quintessential "feeling out" round. Carlos seems more interested in throwing leg kicks at this point, trying to establish distance without dipping his toes into the 'Lawler beast mode in the pocket' water.

4:21 Condit does his shuffle forward for a combination, and Lawler cranks a right hook that grazes Condit. Condit still gets off a kick to the body off amidst the flurry.

3:46 Very good right kick to Robbie's right leg. It was a strike that Condit would only go to sporadically.

3:41 Lawler lunges in hard with a right uppercut. Condit throws a straight right at the same time. Lawler follows it up with an overhand left while Condit is trying to run laterally. Lawler doubles up on the right hook, followed by a winging left hand. Condit counters with a knee to the body. Good paper exchange with not much landing.

3:29 Boom. It's almost impossible to notice from the PPV angle. Condit throws what looks like a straight forward one-two left-right combination, but the left is actually a shovel punch that clips Lawler right on the jaw. Lawler's faculties are in zero gravity at this point.

Dear god no #UFC195 pic.twitter.com/sztgxQvuei

— ZombieProphet (@ZProphet_MMA) January 3, 2016

Condit has trouble following up because Lawler gathers himself quick. When they eventually find themselves in the clinch, Condit separates with a clean right elbow. They reset and Condit goes back to staying somewhat close to the cage, circling to his left.

2:57 Sneaky bit of pugilism by Condit here. He half-feints with his right hand, and quickly readjusts to come in with that same left shovel punch from earlier that knocked Lawler loopy. It partially lands, but Lawler is backing up. Condit misses with the follow up right hand.

2:47 Condit uncorks two kicks and then goes back to circling to his left.

2:07 Condit does his lateral shuffle and comes in with a lunging straight right that appears to land. On the reset, he lands a left kick to Lawler's body.

1:48 Condit comes in with a left hook, right hand, left body kick combination.

0:34 Condit switches to southpaw. He comes in with a right hand and gets tagged with Lawler's right hook. Then they go back to measuring distance.

Observations

The first round was all Condit. Not only did he score an emphatic knockdown, but his volume striking was meaningful. He never gave Lawler a chance to pressure. A lot of this was simply movement. Condit made a concerted effort to move to his left. In another life, Condit would have made a great coach for Michael Bisping. This kept Lawler from letting loose, who has become increasingly economic with his left. Lawler took a page out of his bout with Rory, letting his opponent dictate the pace while trying to hunter gather information.

Round 2

4:38 Hard left kick to the body by Lawler. Condit once again resets and starts circling to his left.

4:19 Condit comes in with a one-two combination, punctuating it with a left kick to the body.

3:39 Condit gets a kick blocked by a jumping Lawler. Lawler eventually returns fire with another kick of his own; a front kick to the midsection of Condit.

Two minutes and Condit is staying active with leg kicks.

3:08 Condit rushes in awkwardly with a left hook, right hand. Lawler counters with a right hook that grazes Condit's nose.

2:40 Condit snaps his left leg. Then comes in with a combination. He resets and lunges in with another left hand shovel punch. This time Lawler is ready and counters with a straight left (misses) right hook that levels Condit. Condit recovers well just like Lawler and gets back up without any trouble.

At this point Condit goes back to measuring distance with kicks, not all of which land.

0:59 Lawler lands a stiff straight left as Condit tries to come in with a combination.

0:19 Lawler chambers a premature right hook as Condit comes in, and then swings it again. Neither land, but Rogan takes the time to note how open Condit's chin is.

Observations

Lawler makes a pretty good read on Condit here; in the first, despite the lack of output, Lawler went looking for the left hand. Because Condit is circling to his left intelligently, Lawler adjusts, and keeps his right hook more active. The early kicks might have played a part, but Lawler's chips are all in that right hook right now.

Still, I felt like Condit was still the more effective fighter. He didn't take round 2, but he dictated the pace well enough to avoid any 10-8 nonsense.

Round 3

4:24 Condit snaps a few consecutive body kicks. He stays active from afar even though I wouldn't call these strikes "significant".

3:43 Condit comes in with a right kick to the body. Lawler wings a bolo of a left hand that misses but follows it up with a right hook that lands clean. Then as Condit starts backing away, Lawler follows it up by landing a right hook, missing with the overhand left followup.

3:35 At this point Lawler is picking up where he left off. He's kind of accepted that he can't lead with his left hand. Condit's movement (always circling to his left), and kick output have mostly neutralized it. So he's starting to lead with that right hook. He does here again, following it up with that winging left hand. Condit interrupts his combination with a slick flying knee that lands flush. Lawler enters the pocket with a lead right hook, overhand left combination.

3:29 Lawler snaps a hard left high kick that Condit partially blocks. Then Lawler paws with a jab, and throws an overhand left, right hook combination that misses. He throws two more punches that miss completely.

3:07 Condit comes in with an attempted combination but runs right into Lawler's forearm.

2:55 Good leg kick by Condit. He follows it up with an inside leg kick a little later.

Condit seems content to stay at range, and throw leg kicks.

1:02 Condit rushes in with a punch that misses. He grabs Lawler for the clinch, and lands a knee to the body. He feints a clinch elbow, and then uncorks another knee to Lawler's body.

0:37 Lawler lands a right hook that isn't thrown with much velocity, but that connects. Condit resets and lands a solid kick to the body after switching to southpaw momentarily. .

Observations

And here's where the debate begins. It should have ended here too.

The best strike that Lawler lands is that forearm that stiffens up Condit. And the two early right hooks. I wouldn't be surprised if the judges thought Lawler landed some of his punches at the 3:29 mark; it's the most violent looking offense in the round, but all of it whiffs completely. Other than that, Condit's beautiful flying knee and overall output sealed this comfortably. Not only does Condit land good strikes to Lawler's legs, but he got in some understated body work. Lawler does a good job of capitalizing on opportunities to land his right hook, but it's his only meaningful strike and he doesn't land it often enough to take the round. If you want a tally of absolutely everything landed, head on over to Michael's post.

Round 4

Round 4 is the slowest round in the early going. For two minutes Lawler hangs back, waiting for opportunities while Condit throws the odd kick, sometimes feinting with pivots. Not much actually happens other than two elite fighters still studying one another.

2:47 Condit lands an insde leg kick that knocks Lawler off balance.

2:38 Lawler throws a right hook, straight left combination, landing the straight left pretty flush.

2:29 Lawler comes in with another right hook left hand combination with Condit pressed up against the fence. He throws it again, landing nothing but air. Condit tries to fire back, and Lawler lands a good counter right hook, staying right there in his grill.

1:49 Good leg kick from Condit with the right. He shuffles forward some more. When he enters with a punch combination, Lawler counters with a right hook.

1:16 Body kick by Condit with the right leg. Several seconds later he lands a solid leg kick with the right.

0:47 Interesting combination by Condit here. It's a left kick, straight right, left hook, right leg to the body. Only the body kick at the end connects but it's an amusing highlight of how broad Condit's combinations are.

0:39 Condit comes in feinting a left. He throws a right hand, left hook combo. The left lands straight on Lawler's jaw. Robbie's wobbled, and Condit comes in combinations. Condit lands a knee but is mostly missing with his punches. Good left hook to Lawler's body at the 0;23 second mark. Condit keeps the pressure with 13 seconds remaining, landing more knees than punches despite the higher punch output.

Observations

Another round for Condit. He lands the best punch of the round, and still maintains the higher workrate and output. Lawler is still effective in pockets whenever he's throwing his right hook, but he doesn't throw it enough just like in round three.

Round 5

4:44 Lawler senses the urgency and comes in with a hard right hook, left hand combination. Condit tries to run back and Lawler cuts him off. Condit with a combination that misses completely, then gets back to the center of the octagon.

4:30 Lawler lands a solid right hand jab. His left hand follow up goes a little too over the top. Not much has landed, but Lawler is looking for the kill shot.

4:20 Condit with a solid set of punches, switching between left hook, and angling down on his right hand to nail a ducking Lawler. Most of it misses.

4:02 Lawler comes in with a straight left that misses, but his follow up right hook lands clean on Condit's cheek. Condit recovers and resets back in the center.

3:47 Condit comes in with a right hand, sweeping left, right hand, shovel left (that lands) combination. A few more missed punches on the tail end are punctuated by a good body kick.

3:11 As if on pop culture cue, Condit comes original at the 3:11 mark with a reverse elbow, right hand, sweeping left (in boxing terms, this is more of like a long range left hook more than anything) combination.

3:01 Condit comes in with a left uppercut, right hand combo.

2:43 Lawler with a swift left hand.

2:04 Condit with more Gumby violence that doesn't land great.

1:47 Condit enters with a left to the body, right hand. He gets the clinch and as he's trying to land a knee, Lawler uncorks a right hook that lands flush.

This is the turning point. Condit is throwing less kicks, and now starting to trade with Lawler. Not only that but he's no longer circling to his left. Lawler sees this, and pumps up the punch volume.

1:34 Condit gets back up with a left hand from Lawler. He throws a combination, but Lawler counters with a right hook that misses, and a left hand that doesn't. Condit tries to circle to his left, but he plods out of the pocket and Lawler swings himself laterally to catch him with a right, followed up with a massive left hand. Another massive right hook lands for Lawler.

1:19 A lot of punches get thrown but a shocking amount misses. Lawler gets in close for a second and crashes a left knee into Condit's grill.

1:10 Lawler brooms that left over the top and lands on Condit's chin. Then punctures Condit with a right hook.

Both guys are exhausted at this point, barely able to stay upright. At one point Condit lumbers forward and the momentum sends his head crashing into the fence very zombie like. A few more punches are thrown, Lawler lands a horrific head kick, and Condit eats it with his adamantium jaw.

Observations

Here was the judge's scorecard:

Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit UFC 195 scorecard https://t.co/Eo5UofMB8v pic.twitter.com/ssdG5f8tpI

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) January 3, 2016

I see a lot of discussion revolving around what constitutes a "significant" strike. The problem with that discussion is that it often confuses "significant" for "powerful". And for all of the merits that a debate about defining "significance" has, it doesn't have any implications in this fight.

The most discussed round (round 3) involves one significant strike that doesn't extend beyond its own boundaries; it's an efficient strike thrown by Lawler, landed, and that's it. Condit scores the same kind of strike (the flying knee), but compliments that brief moment of significance with plenty of parenthetical offense; parenthetical offense still counts as long as the strikes are landing.

People have a metaphysical dread of ambivalence. So scoring the round a draw is out of the question, even if it's more correct than giving Lawler round 3. However, that Lovecraftian response to uncertainty is precisely why the ten point must system gets debated; there's nothing inherently wrong with the structure. It's a hell of a lot better than "Pride Rules" no matter what some MMA hipster tells you. The problems are in its applications, some of them are lingering (the emphasis on lazy takedowns), while others persist (aversion to draws).

Carlos Condit deserved the win. But he still handicapped himself when he stopped those movements to his left. Moreover, he even starts backing straight up in spots. It's no coincidence that as soon as Condit started moving forward and backward instead of side to side, Lawler began to open up. It wasn't just a matter of Lawler feeling the urgency (though that was part of it). Regardless, passionate debate typically follows passionate bouts. A great fight usually has the kind of nuance that requires fans to take a closer look, so despite spending my entire Sunday in front of a computer, I can't complain and frankly, as a fan of this sport, I wouldn't want it any other way.