Tony Ferguson is a scary dude right now in the lightweight division. He dismantled Josh Thomson in a way that fans haven't seen in years and was violence personified all over the Octagon at UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee. But that was just one fight in a long week of constant UFC action (the first half of which was covered here). We saw Frank Mir prove that Duffee really does lack the fundamentals, Kevin Lee show that he can finish guys at 155, and Lyman Good make the best possible first impression. Hell, Michael Bisping even showed up just to reassert his place as the ever-living gatekeeper to the elite at 185. Oh, and I went 16-8 on fight picks over two events.
Disclaimer Time: These cards sucked for smart betting choices. Even going a respectable (not great, but respectable) 16-8, I don't think there was a whole lot of value to be had unless you just love chasing pick 'em fights with even odds. There were smart bets to be placed on Ilir Latifi (seriously at -220) and maybe Sicilia and Gamburyan, but I think I woulda lost my shirt on Todd Duffee and everything else feels like pure happenstance. Just not worth the chances. But, that's why I don't bet. Instead, I'm using odds as a way of marking fighter progress against expectations and pre-fight picks. I'm using Odds Shark for the odds on each fight and taking the mode for each fighter. Now, on to the fights!
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee
Andrew Craig (+210) vs. Lyman Good (-270) (I picked Good, I was right)
Kevin Lee (-300) vs. James Moontasri (+280) (I Picked Lee, I was right)
Holly Holm (-250) vs. Marion Reneau (+210) (I picked Reneau, I was wrong)
Tony Ferguson (-280) vs. Josh Thomson (+230) (I picked Ferguson, I was right)
Todd Duffee (-190) vs. Frank Mir (+155) (I picked Duffee, I was wrong)
Chris De La Rocha (+120) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (-140) (I picked Omielanczuk, I was right)
Ilir Latifi (-230) vs. Hans Stringer (+190) (I picked Latifi, I was right)
Paddy Holohan (-150) vs. Vaughan Lee (+115) (I picked Lee, I was wrong)
Leonardo Mafra (+175) vs. Steven Ray (-220) (I picked Ray, I was right)
Michael Bisping (-140) vs. Thales Leites (+110) (I picked Bisping, I was right-ish)
Those are my collected thoughts from the latter half of a big week of UFC action. As always, so much of what I wrote seems obvious now, but that's the benefit of hindsight. Stay tuned for next week, when I'll be talking about how T.J. Dillashaw is still champion and people just aren't that into it. Until then!
*This week's quote from the movie Coup de Torchon.