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UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs. Hunt - Idiot's Guide Preview to the Fight Pass Prelims

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David Castillo breaks down the three things you need to know about the UFC in Adelaide this weekend, and the three things you don't about feminism and chest tattoos.

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lots of random names and an Aussie flavor collide on the Fight Pass undercard this May 10, 2015 at the Venue Adelaide Entertainment Centre in Adelaide, Australia

The Line Up

Featherweight Hatsu Hioki vs. Dan Hooker
Welterweight Kyle Noke vs. Jonavin Webb
Middleweight Dan Kelly vs. Sam Alvey
Women's Strawweight Bec Rawlings vs. Lisa Ellis
Middleweight Dylan Andrews vs. Brad Scott
Women's Strawweight Alex Chambers vs. Kailin Curran
Welterweight Vik Grujic vs. Brendan O'Reilly
Flyweight Alptekin Özkılıç vs. Ben Nguyen

The Odds

Daniel Hooker +240 Hatsu Hioki -280 
Jonavin Webb +100 Kyle Noke -120 
Daniel Kelly +325 Sam Alvey -400 
Bec Rawlings -165 Lisa Ellis +145 
Brad Scott -110 Dylan Andrews -110
Alex Chambers +175 Kailin Curran -210 
Brendan O'Reilly +100 Vik Grujic -120 
Alptekin Ozkilic -185 Ben Nguyen +160

3 Things You Should Know

1. The last three bouts to be telecast are supposed to be the interesting fights, but this undercard is weird in that the collective bout integrity appears to work in reverse. You'll find better fights earlier rather than later. Still, people will be getting finished, KenFlo style.

Hatsu Hioki has long since passed his 'prospect in progress' expiration date. At 1-4 in his last 5, his status is comparable to Kyle Kingsbury. But the skill and talent that generated so much hype years ago is more or less still there. You have to wonder if the attitude and demeanor of being a heralded prospect is there too; as good as Charles Oliveira is, it was still a little surreal to see Hioki, so brilliant in the grappling department, get submitted. Fighting Daniel Hooker, the kickboxer from the land "down under", isn't really the chance for Hioki to redeem himself so much as it is the chance for him to gather his wits. Hooker is no joke on the feet. But his striking is lumbering even for kickboxing, which means even his virtues are vices in a sense. And his takedown defense isn't terribly effective. Expect Hioki to do what he's capable of. Despite all the criticism, and expectations, he's still an absolute menace in top control.

Kyle Noke gets to fight in his native land this week, but the UFC isn't rolling out the red carpet with a politically minded bout. Though Noke is on a tough skid anyway at 1-3 in his last 4, and would be in a tough spot no matter what, Zuffa isn't doing him any favors by pitting him up against an actual prospect. While Jonavin Webb is a little old to be an 8-0 prospect at 26, he's got plenty to offer. While rough around the edges, his BJJ background makes him a solid threat to any jack of all trades veteran. The important thing for Webb is that his wrestling is actually good. He generates a strong double leg from his athleticism, and has enough on the feet to actually threaten in effective though not overwhelming ways. He seems capable of putting together combinations in rapid fashion, so it'll be interesting to see if this part of his game actively develops into something more threatening. As is, expect a top control upset for a fight that should easily you win you some money.

Daniel Kelly is a name that has somehow endured long enough to part of a main card. I'll do my best not to outright disparage the guy, because let's face it; being 9-0 and boasting lots of experience in the Summer Olympics from 2000-2012 in Judo isn't exactly something to be ashamed of. But at 37, the Olympian from Melbourne doesn't have much to offer in the way of entertainment or display. His main card bout (!) against Patrick Walsh is an experience viewers would prefer to forget, or failing that, prefer not to in order to sarcastically remember. I haven't seen his Judo stuff from the Olympics, but I wonder if injuries and age haven't simply caught up to him as they often do with competitions so intense. Still, it's nice to see him on the undercard where he belongs (no offense Mr. Kelly). He's got a tough opponent in Sam Alvey who is fresh off two unexpected knockout wins over solid competition in Dylan Andrews and Cezar Ferreira. With Kelly's plodding forward style of clinching and maybe getting the bout to the ground, Alvey should have little trouble landing his combinations.

2. The middle three bouts involve a good bit of female on female violence, and consequently, some of the better action on this card.

Bec Rawlings is pretty ingrained in the MMA consciousness for a fighter who is 1-3 in her last four. Probably because of her misguided, provocative "hot takes" on 'new age' feminism. Like there's a 'new age' civil rights or something. But no amount of not safe for work protests will help her in the cage this weekend. Granted, she won't need it against Lisa Ellis. Rawlings is actually pretty decent, sporting some very sturdy takedown defense, and a respectable boxing game on the feet. The former rather than the latter is a big reason why Rawlings is the slight favorite. Ellis can't do much on the feet though she's not as bad as her outbreak of recent losses would have you believe. After all, her competition has been brutal; Herrig (I must have been the only to give her credit against VanZant), Penne, Aguilar, and Fuji. But Rawlings should be able to keep it standing. It's a tricky fight for her. Certainly trickier than separating a message from a messenger at least.

Dylan Andrews seemed like a fighter who had a little more to offer than assumed on TUF season that ended up being quite memorable, but he's now winless in his last two; emphatic losses to Clint Hester and Sam Alvey. Neither are mediocre fighters by any stretch, but Andrews seemed on par with both with his bruising, durable striking style. He shouldn't have too much trouble with England's Brad Scott. Scott is "merely" well rounded. With an active jab and not much else, he prefers to do his work on the ground, amidst scrambles. I don't see Scott taking Andrews down though, which would be the critical part of Scott's success should he have it.

Kailin Curran is more than just an exotic pair of iris's's's. Or yes, an unfortunate chest tattoo. Because in point of fact, she's actually quite gifted. I always felt like her bout with Paige VanZant was closer not in practice, but in philosophy (if you will); a better gameplan might have seen her make it close enough be to controversially contested in the eyes of the judges. Curran is gifted in the clinch (see photo above), and maintains a steady pace. Against Alex Chambers, she should have little trouble establishing that rhythm. Chambers does some things well, but she always seems so distraught having to scramble on the ground, which seems to help explain why so many of her losses (TUF included) are on the ground. Curran will make a home there and take it.

3. Oh right. There are the two bouts to open the show. And they're not bad!

Ozkilic has always seemed like a bit of an underachiever to me. With his athleticism, sound wrestling, and lightning quick but heavy right hand, you'd think he'd find more success. Granted, Smolka and Lineker are solid fighters but Ozkilic seems capable of so much more. He'll prove it against Ben Bguyen, who hits quite hard for the division. However, Nguyen never seems truly comfortable on the feet despite being capable (in different stances no less) not just in terms of technique but in terms of dynamism. Expect this one to look like Lineker vs. Ozkilic, with Ozkilic playing the role of Lineker in less prolonged fashion.

Grujic like so many fighters on this card is coming off a loss as well. His TUF presence was fairly non descript given his jack of some trades style. His opponent is very similar though O'Reilly at least has an interesting presence on the feet, possessing decent raw power, but not having the defense to really sustain it. Don't believe me? Watch him awkwardly throw combinations and then get countered by what may be 6 consecutive left hooks against the 2-3 Sam Gascoigne at the :40 second mark. My point here? This bout will end before the judges can potentially ruin anything. This isn't a great fight by any stretch but at least it won't take up much of your time.

Predictions

Hioki by RNC, round 1.

Webb by Guillotine, round 2.

Alvey by TKO, round 1.

Rawlings by TKO, round 3.

Andrews by TKO, round 3.

Curran by Armbar, round 2.

Grujic by hopefully something interesting, round 3.

Ozkilic by KO, round 2.