UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm - Idiot's Guide Preview to the Fox Sports 1/Fight Pass Prelims

Before the female champions take center stage, lots of 'just OK' fights open the night this November 15, 2015 at the Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Australia.

The Line Up

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Lightweight Jake Matthews vs. Akbarh Arreola
Welterweight Kyle Noke vs. Peter Sobotta
Light Heavyweight Anthony Perosh vs. Gian Villante
Flyweight Richie Vaculik vs. Danny Martinez

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Anton Zafir vs. James Moontasri
Welterweight Richard Walsh vs. Steve Kennedy
Middleweight Dan Kelly vs. Steve Montgomery
Flyweight Ben Nguyen vs. Ryan Benoit

The Odds

Akbarh Arreola +600 Jake Matthews -900  
Kyle Noke +145 Peter Sobotta -165 
Anthony Perosh +325 Gian Villante -400  
Danny Martinez -115 Richie Vaculik -105 
Anton Zafir +260 James Moontasri -320 
Richard Walsh -330 Steven Kennedy +270 
Daniel Kelly +230 Steve Montgomery -270
Ben Nguyen -145 Ryan Benoit +125

The Rundown

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Lightweight Jake Matthews vs. Akbarh Arreola

Matthews is a 21 year old Australian who drew a pretty tough bout against James Vick, and lost via guillotine. Arreola is also coming off a loss, this time over Francisco Trinaldo. Matthews is a pretty solid young fighter with wrestling chops, and a fairly respectable right hand. The odds reflect that as much as they reflect Arreola's lack of polish. However, Arreola is no pushover. Even though Yves Edwards' talents have significantly waned over the years, Akbarh displayed an ability to stay composed with his sneaky right hook from his southpaw stance, and a hasty ground game.

Still, Matthews shouldn't have much trouble; he's the superior athlete, and can win this fight on the feet if he pumps what is a solid jab (assuming he throws it). Even if he doesn't, he'll control the bout and dictate the pace. The fight itself won't reflect the odds, but it's meant to be a showcase fight.

Welterweight Kyle Noke vs. Peter Sobotta

Noke has led a interesting career to mixed results. His first loss in the UFC, an inverted heelhook against Ed Herman, seemed to set the stage for the rest of his UFC career, and he hasn't rebounded from mediocrity since. Well, mediocrity is an unpleasant word; Noke isn't mediocre. Noke is actually quite well rounded, but even the ambition of being an Aussie Chris Lytle seems beyond him.

This is a tough fight for him; the Polish/German hasn't lost since 2010, and is currently undefeated in the UFC at 2-0. Sobotta is a talented grappler who gets in and out with slick footwork from his southpaw stance. He has a very threatening left high kick, and will be looking to pressure Noke with it. Noke is a decent boxer. When he's in his rhythm, he can punch with the punchers. He's an excellent value bet because Sobotta is still a question mark, but it;s hard to predict whether or not he can weather Sobotta's grappling storm once it's on the ground. Noke is no slouch as a grapplesmith, but he's only more effective offensively, and simply not as good defensively.

Light Heavyweight Anthony Perosh vs. Gian Villante

This is the fight that deserves the Akbarh vs. Matthews odds. Perosh has been a great story for years; he's now 43, but he's remained relevant in the UFC despite being fried fed to the wolves in his debut when he took on a still threatening Mirko Filipovic. But his age is catching up to him much like Dan Henderson, and he suffered a knockout in his last outing to Sean O'Connell. Villante's loss was even more embarrassing, however, because he was winning so handily until he lunged in with a soft left hook, which ended up being perfectly countered by Tom Lawlor's right hook.

Villante is a big guy with power; that's how I'd describe him, nuance included. While Perosh is well rounded, his well-roundedness only serves to capitalize on really bad mistakes his opponents may make at this point in his career. Villante is certainly prone to those, but I'd expect this to look like the Lawlor fight; controlling the bout with heavy kicks, and shots to the body. Minus the part where he Supergirls his way into a right hook.

Flyweight Richie Vaculik vs. Danny Martinez

Both are coming off losses; Vaculik by some sweet chin music to Louis Smolka, Martinez to everyone. I'm not sure why Martinez is still fighting with three losses in his last three, but then again I don't mind when respectable fighters get multiple opportunities. Martinez is exciting and I consider this karma for only getting one fight in the WEC against Joseph Benavidez before getting unceremoniously dumped.

Vaculik is the kind of stalwart who can survive early pressure to gain late opportunities. He's a solid well rounded fighter with a strong mind for grappling. This should be more than enough against Martinez, who is a very refined boxer for someone of his status, but who needs specific matchups to keep his UFC job. I expect this one to look a little like the Sirwan Kakai fight back in June.

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Anton Zafir vs. James Moontasri

Zafir will be making his UFC debut after running and gunning in the Aussie regional scene. He's one of the toughest high school teachers (sound familiar MMA movie watchers?) you'll ever meet. Whether or not that translates into success is another matter. Here's a random Thai fight just because:

As painfully awkward as this bout is, Zafir's striking looks a lot cleaner when it's an MMA bout. Still, the video above is more entertainingly sloppy than his MMA bouts. At least here you get to see an opponent fall around like a stapler knocked over a teacher desk.

Zafir has good straight punches, and likes to battle in close to set up his takedowns. His skillset is sort of in service of everything else; it's a good thing, but also impossible to predict in terms of success at the highest levels. Moontasri has a very technical, bruising kicking game, and an uppercut that is dangerous if he avoid being punished for throwing it so wide open the way he does. Moontasri is the better athlete here, and should be able to neutralize Zafir's striking and transition game. Zafir doesn't hit hard enough to really punish Moontasri, nor is he big enough to avoid being pressured.

Welterweight Richard Walsh vs. Steve Kennedy

This was Walsh's last outing:

Needless to say, Walsh would rather forget about it. He isn't a bad fighter by any stretch; he's strong in the clinch, and is a big, stout welterweight who isn't an easy outing for most fighters. With power in his fists, he should be able to make quick(ish) work of Steve Kennedy out of Kickass MMA. Kennedy was last choked out by Peter Sobotta. If Sobotta, the smaller framed fighter could make quick work of Kennedy I can't imagine Walsh not being able to replicate that success at some point. Kennedy can put together quick combinations, but his lack of takedown defense means he can also be easily neutralized. Walsh won't win pretty, but he'll win.

Middleweight Dan Kelly vs. Steve Montgomery

Despite competing in the Olympics, Kelly doesn't resemble the kind of athlete you'd expect from the Summer Games. In fact, he's not much of an athlete at all in the cage. His almost aimless looking way for bulling forward for takedowns looks outdated, and is part of what earned him a knockout loss to Sam Alvey. Meanwhile, we get to forget what it was like watching Dan Kelly vs. Patrick Walsh. Montgomery, known as 'The Creepy Weasel' (because of his haircut?), is a better fighter than his loss to Tony Sims would indicate.

Montgomery is pretty strong on the feet himself. He has a stiff leg kick, and a hard straight left he employs from his southpaw stance. Kelly isn't much of a striker, so he won't be able to capitalize on Montgomery's spare defense, but Montgomery should be able to keep his distance long enough to land early, and often while Kelly wades in like the Weizorek.

Flyweight Ben Nguyen vs. Ryan Benoit

It's weird to see what is far and away the best fight on this undercard buried at the bottom.

Both guys are well rounded flyweights who like to transition, and who can hit with power. Nguyen is coming off a knockout win over the underrated Alptekin Ozkilic, and Benoit is coming off an even bigger win over Sergio Pettis.

This is a good fight for Benoit because the Pettis win made him look better than he actually is; don't get me wrong. Ryan is a good young fighter. But he's still unpolished. Not only was Pettis getting to him on the feet, but Anthony Birchak also had his way with him in their regional bout. Benoit is all offense, and leaves himself open to his detriment. Nyguen, meanwhile, is much more streamlined in his attack. He has solid combinations to compliment his forceful takedowns, and should be able to match Benoit's athleticism.

Benoit is still a threat. His problem beyond defense is his cardio. If he can avoid gassing, while maintaining his high octane combinations, I wouldn't be shocked to see him win (great bet as is). But he's much more project than prospect right now whereas Ngyuen knows his game, and hopes to expand it against the elite.

Predictions

Matthews by TKO, round 2

Noke by Decision

Villante by KO, round 1

Vaculik by Decision

Montgomery by TKO, round 2

Walsh by TKO, round 2

Moontasri by KO, round 1

Nguyen by Decision