UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. dos Anjos - The Idiot's Guide to the Fox Sports 1 Main Card

Welterweight Mike Pyle vs. Jordan Mein

Pyle is a much better fighter than he is an actor.

Sure you've heard and seen this reference a thousand times already, but it's worth noting. Also worth noting is that he's still a thousand times more convincing than Ronda Rousey, who is just flat out dreadful in Expendables 3. There's nothing wrong with not being able to act, but why are MMA fighters so uniquely awful?

Forrest Griffin couldn't even play dead convincingly, so good point.

I remember Cung Le leaving an impression in an otherwise completely terrible sci-fi movie called Pandorum. But nobody tops Oleg Taktarov in 15 Minutes: a Robert De Niro movie with a heavy handed message that still sucker punched me halfway through (won't ruin it for those who haven't seen it). It's too bad all he could get after that sympathetic performance was bit roles in Michael Bay schlock.

Ok so about the fight...

It's a good one. There's something metaphysically correct about this bout being the opener of a PPV card, but no matter where it's placed, expect this one to deliver.

Pyle is a +190 too, which is extra spicy. After all, Pyle seems to do his best work against young-ish prospect types who aren't necessarily blue chip. Mein falls utterly under that category. I'd still argue that this fight is difficult to pick regardless. If TJ Waldburger had some decent cardio, and a semblance of striking he might have ran away with that fight. Pyle is prone to his own questionable performances whereas Mein is pretty consistent. It's hard to believe he's had 37 professional fights and is still only 24. Now that I think about it, that's probably a record.

He didn't really set the world on fire with his show against Perpetuo. Normally I wouldn't think twice about betting on Pyle, but it's important to remember that the guys is 38. His ability to string together punchers, and take punches lessens each day. With Mein on his Goldbergian "meteoric rise", I feel like his ability to patiently land punches while executing respectable enough takedowns will be the difference.

Jordan Mein by Decision.

MiddleweightFrancis Carmont vs. Thales Leites

I will never forgive Carmont for the Lorenz Larkin performance. Sorry.

Do what you must. I think he's taken enough steps to really improve his game organically while addressing the criticism to avoid being branded a pariah for his entire career.

And what the heck is Leites doing here? I thought he retired after his armadillo roadkill impression against Anderson Silva?

Both of these guys feel like characters from Pulp Fiction: looking for redemption in the most unlikely places. Leites never really disappeared. He's only had one loss since getting kicked out the UFC: against Matt Horwich, who he later beat.

This is an interesting fight for two guys who are more talented than their performances indicate. It's another headscratcher too in terms of prognosticating. Leites is actually the underdog at +135 which sounds like another spicy bet. After all, Carmont just took an emphatic loss to CB Dollaway. Granted, it was notable for what CB was able to efficiently do rather than a failure on Carmont's part, but still. I could see Leites doing something similar with his slick grappling, and underrated boxing prowess.

I don't know that Leites is a smart pick so much as it is a sexy bet. After all, Carmont can manage a fight from a distance with his kicks. That's what I'm expecting: a performance that reminds everyone why they used to hate Carmont so much. Fans will forget said performance however, because Larkin had fans. Leites is still working on attaining some.

Francis Carmont by Decision.

Featherweight Max Holloway vs. Clay Collard

So Conor McGregor leftovers vs....uhh...who???

Max Holloway is actually pretty decent. I mean, look at his losses: Dustin Poireir, Conor McGregor, and Dennis Bermudez. That's a pretty disgusting list of mean motor scooters.

His opponent is Clay Collard who as our own Zane Simon noted, has a pretty hefty record for a 21 year old. And that includes a spectacular win over Team Beta not Alpha Male team member, Justin Buchholz.

Real tough talk from a guy who knows what Magic the Gathering is.

Sorry. It felt like the easy quip. Justin is actually a solid action fighter who I felt like was a good fighter who just happened to have Joe Silva project his personal baggage on by giving him tough fights: 2009/2010 Mac Danzig, Terry Etim, and Jeremy Stephens was a harsh run. He's only lost twice in his last eight at bat, so watching Collard pressure the hell out of a guy who is capable in a slugfest left me impressed.

The funny thing about Clay's style is that even though he likes to close the distance with punch combinations, he's comfortable in the shank tark, violently exchanging with his opponent in close.

According to fight finder he lost to you. He can't be that good to lose to a 5 foot nothing blogger.

The names 'David', and 'Castillo' collectively form an unoriginal mix. My name is like the Brazilian equivalent of Thiago Santos. Something created out of a name generator that relies on a stereotype as its algorithm. So yea, wrong guy.

Anyway, I still think Holloway takes this bout. He's incredibly effective at range, and is highly technical. In addition to possessing strong kicks and punches with a well rounded arsenal, he's 22 years old. A little more improvement, and who knows how high his ceiling is. Still, Collard at +350 is highly enticing. He's got big power, and even though Holloway has faced much better competition, it's exactly the kind of fight that gives oddsmakers an itchy trigger finger. Still, Holloway's ground game should be the difference in a bout I think will be much more competitive than the odds make it look.

Max Holloway by RNC, round 3.

Lightweight James Vick vs. Valmir Lazaro

Nobody cares about hockey, and especially not in August!

I know, but bear with me. Hockey is late to the fancy stats revolution. We're only a Cambrian's explosion worth of time away from sabermetrics. But as I don't care at all about baseball, I can only talk about something called PDO in hockey: a combination of a team's shooting percentage, and save percentage at even strength. In that number, analysts have tried to quantify "luck"...as in, patterns suggest that a high shooting percentage will eventually regress to the mean as will a high save percentage. Conversely, low percentages are likely not sustainable. Granted, it's more complicated than that, but you get the picture.

You wasted at least a minute of my life. Nerd.

My point is that as good people like Paul Gift attempt to bring analytics to prizefighting, it'd be cool to see something similar. You could make the argument that #fancystats seemed like something that could never work in a fluid, physical game like hockey but here we are...with every NHL team and their mothers grabbing bloggers left and right from their mother's basement to understand what histograms and coefficients have to do with ice skates and hockey pucks.

That's another minute wasted. Nerd.

So my long winded point is that James Vick is PDO in TUF's clothing. He beat Daron Cruickshank with a knee that he intended as a kick, and then had a giftwrapped submission win over Ramsey Nijem. I know that sounds like I'm saying these wins mean nothing.

But?

But nothing. They're great wins. His win over Cruickshank, who has been absolutely taking names lately while Vick has been off a full year, means he's an automatic favorite over a Nova Uniao trained fighter who hasn't lost since 2010 when he took only his third professional fight. Lazaro is a fantastic bet at +130. In fact, you'd be an idiot not to take a chance. He's also been highly active, with five fights since 2013 versus Vick's one. And he's a monster on the feet. While he's still raw with his punches, his lack of polish comes from his stance. His actual technique is good: he throws with speed and power, just as you'd expect from someone from Nova Uniao.

I don't mean to sell Vick short though. He's a good fighter. At 6'3, he's an absolute handfull for any LW. And he throws some solid leg kicks, though he doesn't use distance too well. If he can get it to the ground (and he should: Lazaro's takedown defense is the one thing he hasn't picked up from his teammates), he can ugly it up. Still, I like Lazaro to land strikes against Vick's waning defense.

Valmir Lazaro by TKO, round 3.

Featherweight Chas Skelly vs. Tom Niinimäki

Another one?!

Yes, one more. But this will be quick.

Tom Niinimaki is actually a very slick, competent fighter who people need to remember more for his win over Rani Yahya than his loss to Niklas "not the Ovechkin feeder" Backstrom. While not an action fighter, he's patient with his strikes, and effective on the ground. Not that I deserve the benefit of the doubt, but just take my word for it. Niinimaki will win comfortably.

Tom Niinimaki by Decision.