Likely Cut With a Loss
Gray Maynard (11-3-1-1NC, 9-3-1-1NC UFC) - Maynard's trilogy with Edgar seems to have left him permanently marked. Since their grueling, concussive second bout in 2011, Maynard has gone 1-3, with all losses coming by (T)KO. The details of that four-fight stretch don't make things any better: his last win came two years ago by way of a box-office-poison split-decision versus Clay Guida, he was finished in his last two fights in the first round, and he's now a 34-year-old lightweight. A strong performance here could earn him a stay of termination. Anything less, however, and I think we're looking at the end of Maynard's UFC career, by either release or retirement.
Tom Watson (16-7-0, 1-3 UFC) - Even in defeat, Watson has been somewhat competitive, but a loss here would make it three in a row. What's more, the last two of those would be coming against Nick Catone, who was returning after a two-year layoff following two straight losses in which he was finished, and a UFC debutante in Sam Alvey. Watson's back is against the wall.
Possibly Cut With a Loss
Shawn Jordan (16-6, 3-3 UFC), Jack May (7-1, 0-1 UFC) - His record is spotty, but Jordan has been a kill-or-be-killed fighter for the heavyweight division, which is always welcome, I think. Still, a third loss in a row to an opponent otherwise winless in the UFC would definitely raise some eyebrows. For Jack May, meanwhile, two straight losses is no way to start a lasting UFC career.
Seth Baczynski (19-11, 5-4 UFC), Tim Boetsch (17-7, 8-6 UFC) - These guys are in very similar positions. A loss for either on Saturday would make him 1-4 in his last five, with a single victory wedged between a pair of losses. Both had unexpected win-streaks going prior to this slump, and both also tend to have crowd-pleasing styles. Of the two, Boetsch has certainly fought higher-calibre opposition, though at the same time, his last win (against C.B. Dolloway) was dubious at best. Neither can afford to rest on his laurels this weekend.
Likely Safe Regardless of Outcome
Nolan Ticman (4-1-0), Frankie Saenz (8-2-0), Sam Alvey (23-5-1NC), Lauren Murphy (8-0-0), Alan Jouban (9-2-0) - As usual, so long as they don't make themselves a pain in the ass (no weight-cutting or drug-test shenanigans), those fighters making their debut are likely guaranteed another shot.
Sara McMann (7-1, 1-1 UFC), Jussier Formiga (16-3, 2-2 UFC) - Both have broken even so far in their UFC campaigns, but they're also widely-recognized as top-level talent working in nascent divisions.
Thiago Tavares (18-5-1, 8-5-1 UFC) - A long-time fixture of the lightweight division, Tavares won his last fight by submission and is likely safe.
Zach Makovsky (18-4, 2-0 UFC), Robbie Peralta (18-4-1NC, 4-1-1NC UFC), Brad Tavares (12-2, 7-2 UFC) - There was a time when maybe Tavares's decision-heavy slate of victories and the possibility of a second consecutive loss might have put him at risk, but I think those times are likely past, especially for someone as young as he is. That aside, all of these guys have had winning UFC careers and should be safe.
Ross Pearson (15-7-1NC, 7-4-1NC UFC) - It's been a rough year for Pearson, what with the atrocious judges' decision for the Sanchez fight and the foul he received versus Guillard, but Pearson has come away looking good in both instances. A loss to Maynard would put his last win at over a year ago, but the snake-bit Pearson has earned himself a bit of leeway, I think.
Ryan Bader (17-4, 10-4 UFC), Ovince Saint Preux (16-5, 4-0 UFC) - Bader and St. Preux are both safe thanks to their steadily successful and undefeated UFC careers, respectively.
The Cut List: UFC Fight Night Bangor - Bader vs. St. Preux
This Saturday, a possible half-dozen fighters may be fighting to keep a place on the UFC's roster...
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Likely Cut With a Loss