The Cut List: UFC on Fox 12

Likely Cut with a Loss

Steven Siler (23-12, 5-3 UFC) - Siler has steadily slid down the rankings since his KO of Mike Thomas Brown, landing him this Saturday across from Noad Lahat (currently 0-1 in the UFC). I like Siler quite a bit, but I don't know where he could go within the division if he can't get past someone with so slight a promotional record. He's an action fighter and comes pretty cheap, so I don't think it's a foregone conclusion, but Siler is definitely at risk.

Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-1NC, 4-4 UFC) - Heading into a UFC event on a three-fight skid is always a problem. And while losing to a surging Stephan Bonnar and two prospects in Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa isn't all that shameful, Kingsbury is, like Siler, being matched up with a relative newcomer, which should tell us something.

Tim Means (20-6-1, 2-3 UFC) - Means has a fun style, and there was a bit of buzz surrounding him back when he debuted, but defeat for him on Saturday would make it four UFC losses in a row. More problematic still is how surprisingly ineffectual he looked against Neil Magny, against whom Means was, I believe, a favorite. That's a lot counting against him. As always, though, an exceptionally spirited performance, even in a losing effort, could save any of these guys.

Possibly Cut with a Loss

Mike De La Torre (12-4, 0-1 UFC) - De La Torre drew a hell of a debut opponent with Mark Bocek, from whom he managed to take one of three judges' verdicts. He's now stepping back a bit to fight someone with similar experience in UFC debutante Brian Ortega. If he looks decent, I can see the UFC holding on to him per their somewhat bloated schedule and thanks, in part, to De La Torre accepting such a rough first outing. I think it'd be some wishful thinking, though, to say that he could go out there, look terrible, and not be at risk of the axe.

Noad Lahat (7-1, 0-1 UFC), Hernani Perpetuo (17-4-1NC, 0-1 UFC) - They're in situations similar to De La Torre, but without the benefit of having taken such an ambitious first assignment.

Likely Safe Regardless of Outcome

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0), Juliana de Lima Carneiro (6-1), Gilbert Burns (7-0) Andreas Stahl (9-0), Tiago Dos Santos e Silva (18-4-2, 1NC), Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1), Brian Ortega (8-0) - Provided they don't turn in catastrophic performances or show up with tattoos instigating a race war, all should get another shot.

Patrick Cummins (5-1, 1-1 UFC) - Stepping up on short notice against Cormier--and doing his damndest to sell that fight--definitely earned Cummins some Dana White Brownie Points (patent pending). That Cummins secured a stoppage victory his last time out certainly doesn't hurt, either.

Dennis Bermudez (13-3, 6-1 UFC), Daron Cruickshank (15-4, 5-2 UFC) - Two of the more pleasant surprises to come out of the increasingly mediocre TUF pool, Bermudez and Cruickshank are always fun to watch.

Clay Guida (31-14, 11-8 UFC) - Up-and-down throughout his UFC career, both in terms of results and fighting style, Guida has nevertheless made himself a mainstay of the organization. His career would have to take a real bad turn for the UFC to risk giving him up to another promotion.

Jorge Masvidal (26-8, 3-1 UFC) - A loss to Cruickshank would push Masvidal's down the rankings a ways, but not so far that it pushes him out of the UFC entirely.

Josh Thomson (20-6-1NC, 3-2 UFC), Bobby Green (22-5, 3-0 UFC) - Thomson is a lightweight who, despite his lengthy career, may yet have some potential to unleash on the division, and Green has managed a perfect mark in the UFC against very solid opposition. Both safe.

Robbie Lawler (23-10, 8-4 UFC), Matt Brown (19-11, 12-5 UFC), Anthony Johnson (17-4, 8-4 UFC), Rogerio Nogueira (21-5, 4-2 UFC) - A few years ago I was rolling my eyes that Matt Brown was still in the UFC, and I'd always felt that his renowned toughness was a bit of a tiresome put-on, but I was wrong. I can't imagine anyone could have predicted this surge in his career, aside from Brown himself, and for him to do that despite all of his purported limitations takes some kind of nasty grit and monstrous drive. Cheers to Matt Brown and his fighting heart.