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UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson betting lines

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A look at all the betting lines for UFC 161, and a couple of recommended plays from Tim B.

USA TODAY Sports

We're back with another week of UFC betting lines, and hopefully they're better than last week's. Ronny Markes had to go and get into a car accident, which canceled the fight and meant that I ended on the wrong side of UFC on Fuel 10. Yes, it had everything to do with Markes. No, it had nothing to do with my other crappy bets. Anyway, let's get into UFC 161, which goes down in Winnipeg this Saturday. Here's a look at the lines (via BestFightOdds):

BestFightOdds.com

I really, really want to bet on Rashad Evans in the main event, but I can't bring myself to do it. He has the wrestling to stifle Dan Henderson for three rounds for sure, but he always manages to take one big shot in every fight. In a bout with Hendo, that's not a good thing. In fact, there are a lot of good bets on this card so I might be okay passing on Rashad.

As for the rest of the main card, I like Roy Nelson at -240 against Stipe Miocic. Stipe has defensive liabilities on the feet and I don't think he can keep Big Country on his back for a major length of time, so I'm going with the big guy. I'd consider betting on Igor Pokrajac at +240 as well, but that might just be my Jimmo hate talking.

There's a lot on the undercard. I got Jake Shields at +193 as soon as the line dropped a couple of months ago. He's down to +164 now. Sam Stout at -225 against a late replacement that bombed out of the WEC seems like a decent price. I like John Maguire in the -225 range as well. I'd even consider a bet on Kenny Robertson as a dog, since Sean Pierson is coming off some concussion issues and might not be at 10000% going in.

Recommended plays
1 unit on Nelson at -240
.75 unit on Shields at +193
1 unit on Stout at -225
1 unit on Maguire at -222
.25 on Robertson at +123

Last event:: UFC on Fuel 10 - 1-2, -.6 unit
2013 standings: 18-28, -7.25 units