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UFC 156: Aldo vs. Edgar betting lines

Mark Kolbe

Another UFC event, another set of betting lines. I'm certainly not off to the best start in 2013, but hopefully a pay-per-view can turn things around a bit. UFC 156 features a few close fights and a few blowouts, but I'm going to try and dig through the manure to find the diamond. Yes, I know that's not a real saying. I'm creative like that. Anyway, onto the lines!

I generally stay away from betting on main events, but I like thing Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar line. And I'll be betting on Aldo. Edgar's being underestimated as usual, but I think the speed advantage he held at lightweight is gone against Aldo. Aldo's takedown defense will keep it upright, and he has the same reach as Maynard and Henderson so he'll be able to land on Edgar. I wouldn't bet Aldo much past -230 or so, but -200 is a good price.

The rest of the main card doesn't look very ripe for betting in my eyes, except for the flyweight fight. Rashad Evans and Alistair Overeem are heavy favorites for a reason, and I'm not betting on Demian Maia vs. Jon Fitch because it's the best fight ever and I'm not jinxing it by picking a side. I said last week that Ian McCall was a good bet, and I still believe that. But oddly enough, the line is so varied across sites that you can get McCall at +220 and Benavidez at -220. Which means you can hedge your bet (bet on both sides) and minimize your potential losses if you feel the need.

Onto the undercard. The most attractive line is undoubtedly Jay Hieron as a dog. I actually got him at +135 earlier in the week, but he's dropped to around +110 now. That's still a decent bet to me, as I see him being able to take apart Tyron Woodley. Other than that, it's slim pickings in my eyes.

Recommended plays:
1 unit on Aldo at -200
.5 unit on McCall at +220
1 unit on Hieron at +110

Last event: UFC on Fox 6 - 1-2, -1.04 units
2013 standings: 2-3, -1.58 units

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