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Junior Dos Santos Still a Betting Favorite Over Alistair Overeem

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A few weeks before UFC 141, betting site Bookmaker decided to cover both sides of the coin and put out a line for two future UFC heavyweight title bouts: Junior dos Santos vs. Brock Lesnar, and Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem. This way, people could get in on the action as early as possible. If they bet on Brock vs. JDS, they just got a refund since the bout will never happen, so no big loss. What is interesting is how much (or little) the line on Overeem vs. JDS has changed since Saturday night, and that Dos Santos is still the favorite.

Back when the line originally dropped (before UFC 141), it looked like this:

Overeem +190
Dos Santos -240

As of this morning, it looks like this:

Overeem +147
Dos Santos -177

While that is a substantial difference, I frankly expected a lot more of a swing. It's true that the bout hasn't been officially announced yet, and that this line is from one particular site (Pinnacle is the only other site to drop a line so far, after UFC 141, and it has JDS at -155, Overeem at +140), but I expect to see this line end up close to even by the time the fight rolls around. I'm sure some will find that ridiculous, but that's truly what I see happening.

Basically, if you have some disposable income and you think Alistair Overeem is going to defeat Junior dos Santos, now is the time to make that bet. And if you're leaning toward dos Santos, wait it out. Today's betting advice was brought to you by the letters A and O, and the number 1.

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