On Monday, I analyzed Shane Carwin in the lead up to his challenge for UFC Heavyweight Title at UFC 116. And yesterday, I dissected his opponent in that fight, the UFC Heavyweight Champion, Brock Lesnar. Today, I will be rewatching the tapes of Shane Carwin's fights in the UFC and breaking them down. With less than eight minutes total ring time, four wins with four stoppages, there's not plethora of tape of Carwin, but there is enough to make an informed analysis of his fight style in action and provide more in-depth discussion of the points brought up in his Break it Down article.
Shane Carwin vs Chrisian Wellisch, UFC 84
Carwin comes out in the stance as I described it before. His right hand is lower than it should be and he is hunched over. He opens with a combo which Wellisch avoids and appears to be off-balance. That ties into my critique of his stance of having more weight on that front leg than normal. He then unleashes a charging combo at Wellisch which he easily avoids and Carwin again is off balance. When Carwin is punching, he is leaping into his punches instead of using his hips to drive the punch. Power starts in the legs, then the hips. It's amazing how much power he generates without technical punches. He could be an unstoppable monster if he improved his technique. As I say that, Joe Rogan notices and says Carwin is "stiff" but "throwing big power in his punches".
Another one-two that are both arm punches and I notice that Carwin's guard is low here and he is leaning forward. They engage and Wellisch is able to capitalize on that with a nice right hand and then a left straight as Carwin doesn't move his head to avoid punches and his guard is open while doing so. Carwin in that exchange is able to connect with a left straight to Wellisch's chin. For some reason, Wellisch decides it's okay to put his guard down against a powerful puncher and that allows Carwin to connect that punch.
Wellisch, not learning from that left that hit, continues to keep his guard down against this power puncher and steps into range. Carwin throws his best and most technical punches of the night, a great one-two that both penetrate Wellisch's Swiss Dutch cheese guard and CRUMPLES him. I must take back what I said in Monday's post about Carwin and jabbing. Carwin actually uses a jab here to great success. He feels out the range, finds Wellisch's chin and combos with the cross. Carwin follows up with a couple more right hands and Yves Lavigne stops the fight at 44 seconds in the 1st round. It should be noted that Wellisch was not "out" nor, in my opinion, severly rocked as he got up right afterwards and without trouble. I am NOT calling this an early stoppage by any means as the way Wellisch dropped combined with the fact that Carwin's two right hands easily penetrated Wellisch's defense on the ground and it was a just stoppage.
What did we learn: We learned that Shane Carwin hits like a Mack Truck. Shane Carwin has the ability to recognize an opening and attack it. We did also learn that Shane Carwin has a ways to go when it comes to the technical aspects of striking. Wellisch was able to connect with a few decent shots and a more experienced striker will be able to exploit those openings.
Shane Carwin vs Neil Wain, UFC 89
The first thing I notice is that Carwin has an eight inch reach advantage over the shorter Wain which can, and will, ultimately prove to be a problem. Carwin comes out and I immediately notice he's lighter on his feet. He's on the balls of his feet and not as flat-footed as he was against Wellisch. His guard, however, has gotten worse. Carwin's right hand is back by his ear for some reason. I believe it's because he doesn't respect Wain's range being on the wrong end of an eight inch advantage in reach. As soon as I say that, Wain comes in with a leaping left hook that dings Carwin on the ear. Carwin clinches up and Wain establishes defensive overhooks which is good as Carwin tries to trip him as they push up against the cage.
They aren't long for the cage as Wain shows some saavy and gets an underhook on the left side and gets right off the cage when Carwin throws a knee to the body. Now Carwin is tries to push him back against the cage but is unsuccessful primarily due to that underhook even though Carwin is much more the stronger individual. They break and engage in some punching exchanges. Neil Wain is not a technical puncher; he throws Toughman punches. Yet, he was able to land on Carwin dispite that severe reach disadvantage. This occurs primarily because Carwin's head movement is not there and his footwork seems to have gone back to the flat-footed style of the Wellisch fight.
Carwin remembers that he is a Divison II Champion and wisely decides to take Wain to the ground before one of those "Wing and Ding" punches really hits him. For a Division II champion, that was probably one of the most untechnical takedowns I've seen. Now granted, Neil Wain is no wrestler. Not only is he an Englishman, who are naturally allergic to takedown defense. he's also extremely top heavy, so a slight breeze could've taken him down. Carwin has no drive behind that double leg as he just sort of bearhugged his legs to the ground and Wain falls over. Mind you, the above picture is at real speed.
Carwin easily passes into the half-guard and Goldberg reads my mental questions about Wain ground game as he announces that Wain is a brown belt in Gracie Jiu Jitsu. So Wain should be able to stop him from passing and maybe threaten him with a sub. Wait, Goldberg corrects himself as it is Wain's instructor, not Wain, who is a brown belt. Wain is a blue belt. Well that doesn't bode well. Wain is lost as Carwin moves into side control and has great posture raining down shots. Wain's near leg is providing no resistance to Carwin if he chooses to mount and he does and Carwin brings the thunder. Carwin has some POWERFUL ground and pound as it looks like he's barely putting effort into the punches, however Wain is extremely hurt after the ref cals the fight at 1:31 in the 1st round.
What did we learn: We learned that Shane is strong and powerful which we already knew. We saw some of his wrestling and while effective, against a fighter of a higher quality, it might not be as effective for him. We were reminded of Carwin's striking deficiencies (lack of head movement and guard) which Wain was able to capitalize on for a few shots. We learned that Carwin will resort to his wrestling when he's pressured. Wain hit him with a decent shot and Carwin immediately clinches up; Wain tags him on the feet a little and he immediately takes him down. As Carwin faces tougher competition, those holes will be exploited.
Shane Carwin vs Gabriel Gonzaga, UFC 96
I notice again Carwin's guard looks a little better and he on the balls of his feet again. Carwin bullrushes in for a flurry and makes the same mistakes that he did doing the same thing against Wellisch, by dropping his hands and leaving his untucked chin open to a good counter puncher. What happens the next time he tries that against Gabriel Gonzaga? Gonzaga catches him with a counter right hook stunning him on the chin. He tries to grab Gonzaga, who shrugs him off and connects with another right to the chin and follows that up with a third right. Joe Rogan proclaims Carwin's eyes to have "rolled up". I disagree. Carwin looks stunned, but he is lucid as he initiates a clinch. Gonzaga tries to get double underhooks and switches that to a single leg. Carwin is up on one leg. Gonzaga waits for the right time and single-leg trips Carwin to the mat.
Carwin lands on his butt and Gonzaga puts his flat on his back while in half guard. Carwin shows skill off his back and established guard on Gonzaga, an acclaimed BJJ player. Gonzaga, instead of controlling the guard and establishing a good position, starts striking and Carwin then is able to get his back off the ground and against the cage. Carwin uses the cage to stand up and pushes Gonzaga off. Napao lazily throws a punch with his right hand not up and at the same time Carwin counters it with a pushing jab to the chin. Gonzaga tried to combo his jab with a right but Carwin's followup right cross connects DIRECTLY on Gonzaga's chin. Lights out. Two more punches, but Gonzaga's out. The ref calles the fight at 1:09 in the 1st round.
What did we learn: We pretty much learned what we knew from the last two fights. Shane Carwin has monster power and not so good technique. However, we learned something very important, Carwin can be rocked by a punch, recover quickly and come back to finish the fight. In addition, we learned that Carwin was able to get up off of his back from under a well-versed BJJ player in Gabriel Gonzaga. Still holes to his game, but there's no denying that Carwin is a powerful man who can put a world of hurt on his opponents.
Shane Carwin vs Frank Mir, UFC 111
Before I break down this fight, I want to quickly say that Frank Mir was noticeably different fighter in this fight as a result of putting on more muscle following the loss to Brock Lesnar. Mir believed that adding the muscle would give him the size he felt he needed to compete with the larger fighters in the division. I believe this mindset is inherently false as it would cause him to be much slower and less familiar with his body as he has recently added weight as opposed to a Carwin or Lesnar who have carried that size for years and are accustomed to it. The praise given to this "new" sized Frank Mir after he beat Cheick Kongo was presumptuous at best. In watching that fight, he knocked Kongo down but if you watch the fight, Kongo wasn't dazed. Kongo just left his neck exposed as he has no ground game. Therefore, I believe Frank Mir was erroneous in believing that his new size was the key to being champion.
The first thing I notice again is Carwin's stance. He's back to flatfooted and his hands are low again. Contrast that to Mir in the above gif, Mir is on the balls of his feet and that lead hand is high. Carwin also has that front leg out there and he is hunching over adding more weight to the front leg (though you can't see it in that gif). Watching the fight, I can't believe Mir, as a Muay Thai practitioner, didn't see that and attack the leg. Mir opens with a flurry (a noticeably slower one) of punches that Carwin avoids easily by backing up Carwin grabs Mir and drives him against the cage.
Carwin tags Mir with some short rights in the clinch. Mir has a tight overhook on Carwin's left arm, but is doing nothing to control the right arm of Carwin, no wrist or arm control nor any attempt to gain a hook. For some reason, Carwin grabs a single leg to try and take Mir down. Why? I don't know. He was doing well with the short punches to the face and body. Mir stops the attempt and Carwin goes back to striking with knees to the front leg which distract Mir enough to allow Carwin to hit him in the face some more. We all know Frank Mir HATES to get hit. He turns his head away from the punches and you can see his lip starting to swell, so you know those short punches of Carwin's are hurting him. I'm screaming wondering why Mir isn't trying to grab a hook in and control that right arm of Carwin's and to establish some sort of degensive maneuvering to get off the cage. Does Frank Mir not know what to do? Luckily for Mir, Big Dan is the ref and since the crowd booed, he breaks them off the cage. Joe Rogan is as mystified as I am. Carwin was doing damage to the front leg and face of Mir. It's a five round fight, let the man wear him down.
They're off the cage and circling and Carwin decides to throw a three-punch combination that Mir is easily able to avoid and land a counter straight to Carwin's chin while backing up. Again, that ties into what I've been saying in his previous fights. His low guard and dropping of his hands will hurt him. It hurt him against Gonzaga and he didn't capitalize. It could've hurt him here against Mir, but Mir wasn't as quick with punches as he was before he put on the weight. Carwin puts up his guard, much to my pleasure, and just in time as Mir unleashes a four punch combination and finishes off with an elbow. Carwin defensively goes into the clinch and Mir has the ability to back off here, but instead chooses to clinch up with Carwin. He clearly didn't learn his lesson from the last time. This is what I mean by gym confidence. Mir looks phenomenal. He went in the gym and added these muscles and now he believes he can compete with the big boys in the division. I mean big muscles equals more strength, right? Wrong. Carwin easily reverses Mir and presses him against the cage.
Mir has an overhook on Carwin's right arm and wrist "control" on his left. Grab a hook Mir. You're not strong enough to control Carwin's wrists. Carwin resumes his actions from the first clinch and starts kneeing the front leg of Mir. Mir's corner says something and Mir nods. Hopefully they said "For God's sakes Frank, hook his arm and pray Big Dan breaks you up." Carwin keeps kneeing and the corner's words must have worked as Big Dan tells them to "get some action". Come on Dan. Carwin says enough of this, he's not breaking us up againt and flicks Mir's weak wrist control off of his left arm. I guess Mir was thinking, "He's righthanded, his left can't be that strong." Carwin hits Mir with a small left and Mir unexplicably has his hand on Carwin's shoulder as if this was a dance.
Well, if Mir's left arm is overhooking and his right hand is on Carwin's shoulder, then there's nothing blocking the chin. Carwin agrees and hits Mir with an uppercut. I don't know what Mir is thinking here as he then puts his hand at his waist and allows Carwin to reach all the way back to his training camp back in Denver and hit him with a crushing left hook to Mir's face. We all know what happens when Frank Mir gets hit, right? He gets hit some more. That's exactly what Carwin does as he unleashes uppercuts to Mir's chin and Mir falls after three or four. Carwin switches over to some ground and pound with both hands and Mir frantically tries to grab a leg. His jiu jitsu can't save him as Carwin keeps pummeling him. Matters aren't helped by the fact that Carwin is hitting him ten or eleven times in the back of the head right in front of the ref who is telling Mir to defend hisself. Mir grabs an arm but it is futile as Carwin gets his back. A couple shots to the back of the head put Mir out and Carwin blast Mir with more shots to the face as Big Dan watches in awe and finally decides to call the fight at 3:48 in the 1st round.
What did we learn: Shane Carwin not only has power on his feet, but power in the clinch. His ability to create power is such a small space does nothing but enhance his offensive capabilities and makes him doubly dangerous. As for his technique against the cage, it was pointed out to me in my Break it Down: Shane Carwin comments section that Shane's coach Trevor Wittman said Carwin was able to generate that power by using his toes, bouncing on his feet. I didn't see that. If you watch the finish and use the replay from a different angle after the fight, he's barely moving or jumping at all, certainly not "doing jump rope" like he claimed. Shane Carwin is just destructive.
I can't help but comment on the lack of cage clinch defense by Frank Mir. Anyone with adequate skills would have been able to do a better defensive job. I'm not saying that they would have been more successful and beaten Carwin, just that Mir's skills in that area were lacking especially when you take into consideration his extreme fear of getting hit. Carwin was able to muscle Mir against the cage and use a great gameplan of attacking his knee with the short knees and alternating with the shots to the face. Carwin's standup still has the same holes as pointed out in earlier fights and there seems to be no remedy. I am forced to repeat my statement from earlier, sooner or later, someone will capitalize on those holes. As he has increased in competition, he's been getting caught more frequently. Will he and his training camp be able to patch up those deficiencies? Hopefully for Carwin's future, he does improve that aspect.
