Strikeforce: "Fedor vs. Werdum"
Saturday June 26, 2010
HP Pavilion
San Jose, California
Main card:
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum
Luke Thomas: I just don't see a way for Werdum to win here. Submission is the most likely course to any sort of victory, but Fedor has phenomenal defense. His timing and use of weight distribution is unreal. Back when he was king, no one just sat up out of Nogueira's triangle...except Fedor of course. He can create scrambles from small openings and reverse positioning in the blink of an eye. At some point Fedor's going to put it on his chin. That's all there is to it. Fedor by KO.
Kid Nate: As formidable as Werdum is, and he's a man I'd give a grappler's chance to tap out Carwin or Lesnar, he's very much the type of fighter that Fedor has been beating for the past decade. I expect Werdum will be beaten up on the feet but he'll land some knees and do better than some expect. He'll still get stopped. Fedor by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Unless Fedor hasn't trained well, is completely disinterested, aged incredibly overnight or gets injured mid-fight we're all fooling ourselves pretending Werdum can win this. Fedor Emelianenko by TKO, round 2.
Mike Fagan: It's interesting that Werdum has a betting line similar to Rogers, even though he's a more accomplished fighter. I'm also surprised at the complete lack of coverage of Werdum, again, given what Rogers received last fall. There's no reason to pick against the Russian here, though I expect Werdum will do some things that will get people talking about Fedor being "exposed". I've got this weird upset chill running up my spine, but I'm using my head and going Fedor Emelianenko by decision.
Chris Nelson: Re: Mr. Fagan's "upset chill" - I get that same feeling every time Fedor fights, and I'm always wrong. I'm not going to kid myself this time out. Fedor via TKO, round two.
Nick Thomas: Werdum predicts a submission finish, the only problem is Emelianenko is just as dangerous on the ground as he is on the feet. Emelianenko by TKO.
Leland Roling: As Fagan points out, I have an upset chill as well, but I almost always do for Fedor at this point in his career. But Werdum's performance against Antonio Silva didn't inspire confidence that Werdum will do well against Fedor. Fedor is going to surprise Werdum with his speed and power. Fedor Emelianenko via TKO.
Jonathan Snowden: OK, so I spent somet time building up Fabricio Werdum. And he's a very talented man. But how do you pick against a man who has never lost a legitimate fight after a decade of taking on the world's best? Fedor, TKO.
Cung Le vs. Scott Smith
Luke Thomas: Smith was getting bodied before he got dropped. Cung will follow through this time. Le by TKO.
Kid Nate: Unless time has caught up with Cung Le, I expect he'll have learned the lesson of his first ever loss against Smith and will do what he needs to do and not screw around. Cung Le by decision.
Brent Brookhouse : I'm going to roll with Smith. He now knows he has the power to hurt and stop Le and that will make him more willing to open up early rather than stand around as a target for two rounds. Scott Smith by TKO, round 2.
Mike Fagan: I'm no Cung Le fan, but Smith has had the Mir horseshoe up his ass for awhile. I don't see Le making the same mistake twice here. Cung Le by decision.
Chris Nelson: Le fights smarter this time and takes the decision he was on his way to in the first bout. Le via decision.
Nick Thomas: I thought Smith would win the first fight and this is no different. Le will gas again in the third. Smith by TKO.
Leland Roling: Cung Le should win this fight with his kicking, but I think Smith comes out more aggressive and looks for the knockout quickly to avoid all of that damage. Scott Smith via TKO.
Jonathan Snowden: Nothing I saw in the first fight makes me think Smith has a good shot at winning this. What made that finish so epic was just how badly Le was outclassing Smith throughout. Thus time he's more cautious and Le takes home a decision.
Cristiane Santos vs. Jan Finney
Luke Thomas: Short of an errant shot, how does Finney win here? Not saying she can't or won't, but I sure as hell wouldn't lay money on it happening. Cyborg by maiming.
Kid Nate: Cyborg by pillage and plunder.
Brent Brookhouse: I know Finney has fought some good competition, but fighting against good competition doesn't make you good. Beating them does. Cris Cyborg by brutal TKO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: So Finney has been defeated by all the top women's fighters, and now she's moving up in weight to fight Cyborg? Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 1.
Chris Nelson: An upset here would shock me more than Werdum over Fedor. Finney may keep Santos at range with her front kick, but eventually she'll leave herself open and catch a hulking. No one's touching the lady "Cyborg" right now. Santos via TKO, round two.
Nick Thomas: Holy mismatch. Santos by TKO.
Leland Roling: I can't even begin to formulate an analysis. Cyborg is a beastly woman, end of discussion. Cris Cyborg via TKO, Round 1.
Jonathan Snowden: People are very confident Cyborg will run through her. So am I. Cyborgvia knockout.
Pat Healy vs. Josh Thomson
Luke Thomas: Thomson is a better wrestler, better athlete and far better kickboxer. If Pealy can hit some sort of an armdrag and take the back, maybe he's got a shot then. Otherwise, he's in trouble. Thomson by submission.
Kid Nate: Josh Thomson is likely the most underrated lightweight in the world. He's had a bad couple of years with injuries, and this is just the kind of tune up fight he needs. Thomson by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: Healy will push Thomson just enough to make this a nice rebound fight, but not so much that Thomson is in trouble of losing the fight. Josh Thomson by decision.
Mike Fagan: Healy might be a tough fight, but Thomson's only losses are to top 155ers. Josh Thomson by decision.
Chris Nelson: I'm in agreement with most everyone else here. Healy won't be a pushover for Thomson, but in the end it'll be Thomson via decision.
Nick Thomas: Pat Healy at 155 is no joke, this is going to be a though fight for Thomson. Thomson by close decision.
Leland Roling: Very tough fight for Thomson as Healy should be bigger, but I think Thomson has the chops to out strike Healy and keep himself on the feet. Josh Thomson via decision.
Jonathan Snowden: I'll make it unanimous. Thomson via TKO.
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