Out of all the analysis of the upcoming rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua (a lot of which you can find here and here), I don't think I've read anything as interesting and technical as Daniel Woirin's interview with Riddum.com. Woirin is a French-born Muay Thai trainer who, according to the piece, has trained the likes of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida, himself. The interview touches on everything from critiquing the first fight to explaining why Rua found success with kicks to breaking down what Machida needs to do to be successful the second time around.
Here's a taste of the highly recommended reading:
Shogun will be composed with his boxing, he'll continue to kick in order to take away Lyoto's legs and slow down his movement, which will make him more vulnerable. He will accelerate the rhythm at the end of each round in order to impress the judges.
As for Lyoto, I think that all this controversy around his win left a sour taste in his mouth and he'll be more offensive and try to show his superiority. He'll work from a long range and bank on his offense and speed. He'll have to feint in order to stay unpredictable and be able to surprise Shogun.
To me, this fight will come down to the each fighter's emotional control. Let me explain: on a technical and tactical level, I don't think there will be much of a difference, but there will be one on an emotional level. Shogun comes from Chute Boxe, a school where you are taught to have an aggressive and always coming forward style. If you look back on his last two fights, he was a lot more focused and he managed to stick to his game plan until the end. This is what caught Machida off guard, as he was expecting a more aggressive Shogun who would expose himself a lot more.
So I would say that if Machida wants to win this fight, he needs to come up with something that will affect Shogun emotionally, in order to get openings.
As for Mauricio Shogun, if he stays focused until the end of the fight, doesn't deviate from his game plan, and presses more at the end of each round, he will win this fight.