Every once in a while, even a cynical guy like me gets suckered by those UFC hype shows that make you think every fight is even. I just rewatched Jon Fitch's fight with Chris Wilson, and came away reminded why I once thought Jon Fitch would get blown out by Georges St. Pierre.
I don't know what the judges were thinking, but Chris Wilson clearly won that first round. He lit Fitch up standing, and more notably stopped a bunch of his takedowns early on. Wilson broke in the second and third, and as soon as he ran out of gas he couldn't stop the takedown anymore. Even then, Fitch did not come away looking very impressive. He definitely won those rounds, but did it without hurting Wilson.
I think this fight provides good reason to believe Jon Fitch is in trouble tomorrow night. I don't think he will have success taking St. Pierre down, and his striking didn't look dangerous at all. Fitch doesn't really explode into his takedowns the way guys like Koscheck and St. Pierre do. His style seems closer to Tito's, where he just muscles guys down through sheer will and strength. I don't see this working against St. Pierre at all, he's just too good and too strong.
I think we'll see the St. Pierre we saw against Matt Hughes at UFC 65 tomorrow night. He'll use his wrestling to keep it standing and pick Fitch apart there where he has the biggest advantage. People have forgotten how good St. Pierre's striking is, and I think he'll remind people in a big way tomorrow night.