BloodyElbow.com Staff Predictions for WEC 35: "Condit vs. Miura"
August 3rd, 2008
Hard Rock Hotel & Casino
MAIN CARD
Carlos Condit vs. Hiromitsu Miura
Luke Thomas: Miura is very durable and actually has legitimate offensive skills. I just don’t see them as enough to stop the very underrated Condit. Condit via unanimous decision.
Kid Nate: Miura could be a bad matchup for Condit. He's coming down from middleweight and managed to survive three rounds against Mayhem without being submitted. I expect Condit to do enough to get the nod, but he'll need to be careful about being on his back too much, the judges might not like that. Condit by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Condit is the more complete fighter and in this fight it is going to be pretty painfully obvious. Condit by submission round 2.
Michael Rome: Condit via submission, round 3.
Nick Thomas: Condit has the edge in stand up, wrestling and conditioning. At some point this fight will end up on the ground and from there Condit wins by submission.
Chris Nelson: The champ retains the belt, but Miura won't be the cakewalk some are predicting or the +425 line would have you believe. Carlos can grind this out on the ground, but I say the Japanese fighter's submission defense makes for five frustrating rounds. Condit via decision.
Mike Fagan: This may end up being close, but I'll go with Condit by submission, round 3.
Brian Stann vs. Steve Cantwell
Luke Thomas: These two actually have a similar style and Stann leaves his chin in the air a little too much for my comfort when he exchanges. Ultimately, though, Stann is a little less reckless than Cantwell. Stann, via TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: I don't really even consider this major league MMA. Stann by KO.
Brent Brookhouse: Doesn't it seem like every single WEC light heavyweight bout is between two guys who've barely ever been past one round? Cantwell is the better technical striker, Stann is the more powerful guy. I think looking at their first fight you can see ways where Cantwell can win this fight...mainly working behind a strong jab and leg kicks. I'm going to take Cantwell even though I've been getting my butt handed to me picking upsets as of late. This is based more on style than any sort of gut feeling which is more than I can say for some of my other recent failed picks.. Cantwell by decision.
Michael Rome: Seriously? Stann via KO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Stann has already beaten Cantwell, he'll do it again. Stann by quick TKO.
Chris Nelson: And you thought Silva vs. Eilers was an uncompelling title fight. Stann via TKO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: He already did it once, don't see why now will be any different. Stann by KO, round 1.
Jamie Varner vs. Marcus Hicks
Luke Thomas: Varner is a national collegiate boxing champion, an All-American wrestler and won the no-gi Mundials last year as a purple belt. He’s also a top-notch athlete. I also think Sergio Gomez proved Hicks can be busted up on the feet over the course of a round. Hicks has a fight-ending guillotine, but I think Varner’s ready for him. Varner, by TKO, round 3.
Kid Nate: Hicks is a beast. Varner is tough and well rounded, but I think Hicks is just too much, too skilled, too powerful, too aggressive. Hicks by TKO in 2.
Brent Brookhouse: Varner is good and he has a lot of length on Hicks. However, I love Hicks' style. He has very good technical boxing but he lets it fly out the window a little too often, deciding instead to just sling looping punches. But, he keeps a lot of power on his strikes. He is also very strong and has very good BJJ. What I really like is that he is flat out mean and there isn't a second in his fights that he isn't looking to finish. Marcus Hicks by TKO round 3.
Michael Rome: Hicks via TKO, round 2.
Nick Thomas: Hicks has never fought anyone as talented as Varner and throw in Varner's reach advantage on top of that. It's going to be a rough night for Hicks. Varner by decision.
Chris Nelson: Varner via submission, round 2.
Mike Fagan: Hicks by submission, round 1.
Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page
Luke Thomas: This is a very competitive match-up and while Page has the more technical stand-up, Bowles is the more powerful puncher. On the floor Page is more well-rounded, but can be bullied. I expect Bowles to do just that. Bowles via unanimous decision.
Kid Nate: Bowles by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Page has the better experience and that can carry him a long way. Page by TKO round 2.
Michael Rome: Bowles via KO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Both guys have solid stand up and this could do either way... but I'm picking Page by TKO.
Chris Nelson: Page via decision.
Mike Fagan: Bowles via TKO, round 2.
Josh Grispi vs. Micah Miller
Luke Thomas: Micah Miller is incredibly talented and not only has a great chin standing, but has the jiu-jitsu and body type to make guard passing difficult. However, I doubt his finishing ability against top tier opponents. If Grispi is smart, he’ll keep this standing. This is a tough test for Grispi, but everyone and his brother swear by this kid. I’ll hitch my wagon this time. Grispi via split decision.
Kid Nate: Grispi is for real and matches up against Miller very well. Grispi by submission in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Grispi is tough but I think the better camp will carry Miller to a win. Micah Miller by decision.
Michael Rome: Grispi via submission, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Miller trains out of ATT and that's enough to convince me. Miller by decision.
Chris Nelson: Grispi via submission, round 1.
Mike Fagan: Grispi via submission, round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Brock Larson vs. Carlo Prater
Luke Thomas: Prater has looked solid but inspired of late. Larson has a lot of redeeming to do and I expect him to do it. Larson via submission, round 2.
Brent Brookhouse: Larson by TKO round 2.
Nick Thomas: Great fight here. Hopefully we get to see it. Larson by ground and pound.
Chris Nelson: Larson via submission, round 2.
Blas Avena vs. Dave Terrel
Luke Thomas: Blas looks good when he’s blitzkrieging opponents, but Terrel is probably a little too tough to get steamrolled. I expect Terrel to edge this one out. Terrel vs TKO, round 3.
Brent Brookhouse: Terrel by decision.
Nick Thomas: Avena by submission.
Chris Nelson: Terrel via decision.
Todd Moore vs. Shane Roller
Luke Thomas:
Brent Brookhouse:
Nick Thomas:
Chris Nelson:
Mike Budnik vs. Greg McIntyre
Luke Thomas: Budnik by being more well-rounded. Budnik by KO, round 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Budnik by decision.
Nick Thomas: Budnik by TKO.
Chris Nelson: Budnik via awful waffle, round 2.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Kenji Osawa
Luke Thomas: I would’ve gone with Osawa, but after the founder of Wajyutsu Keisyukai died tragically so close to the fight, Osawa will be distracted. That’s enough for Jorgensen to use his wrestling. Jorgensen via unanimous decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Jorgensen by decision.
Nick Thomas: Osawa by decision.
Chris Nelson: Osawa via decision.
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