I'll say up front watching Gina do pad work that she's got good power and a lot of snap on both her punches and kicks. We've also seen a decent display of her power and combinations in her fights. But looking at the arm bar and kimura she attempts, she is clearly very, very green when it comes to grappling. She doesn't use her hips very well to work a better angle for the kimura and her arm bar attempt is, to put it mildly, loose.
And I don't know if anyone else gets this feeling, but is Kaitlin Young being completely ignored in the run up to this fight? The odds on this bout are hovering in ballpark of +300 for Young, which is absolutely outrageous. Carano has openly stated that she loves being a fighter, but is leveraging her looks and sex appeal for something larger. I don't blame her for that and it's really unfair to say any one of us would do differently if we were her and had those opportunities presented to us. But justified or not, those distractions come at a price. Kaitlin Young has vicious KO power, has been entering grappling tournaments to improve her ground game and worked a 9+ week training camp just for this fight. She's also been doing Sean Sherk's "Caveman Workout" with Sean Sherk. While Gina's been using oversized Q-Tips to play games as "Crush", Young has quietly put her nose to the grindstone for one thing and one thing only: this fight.
Personally, I think Young is the favorite here. She's young, a little inexperienced and doesn't possess the Thai boxing pedigree of Carano, but this ain't Thai boxing. More importantly, Young's singular focus has been about preparing for this fight and improving her skill with one of the best MMA team's in the country. Gina could win, but with all sorts of distractions and a short training camp, it's hard for me to imagine she's going to walk through anybody, much less a talented and ferocious Kaitlin Young.
Georges St. Pierre was right: it's not the best fighter who wins the fight; it's the best fighter that night. And the easiest way to be the best fighter that night is prepare yourself in every conceivable way. I'm not sure if that can be said about Carano. If you're looking for one underdog to lay money on, it's Kaitlin Young. Get it now while the getting is good.
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