I've been closely following the odds on the Chael Sonnen vs. Paulo Filho rematch since they first came out. When first announced Sonnen seemed like a decent bet at +175 (BetUS), he really pushed Filho in their first bout winning almost every second of the fight before getting caught in an armbar.
Then when Filho pulled out of the fight due to "depression" only to pull a 180 and have his manager state that he will put the title on the line as he "basically pulled everything together" after his personal issues I had to really start considering putting money on Sonnen. I mean, what kind of camp is Filho really going through if he is battling depression?
Now I look and see that Sonnen has fallen from +160 when I looked earlier today to +155 (5Dimes odds) so I expect the BetUS line (still at +175) to trend the same direction in the coming days.
Personally I had Chael at about 35% to win the fight before the whole "sad Paulo" angle and now have to bump him up to somewhere between 40-45% based on questioning where his head is at. At +175 the break even rate is 36% so I personally can see a bit of value in throwing some cash on Sonnen. But you probably want to get in on it now before the line moves much more, because I don't see the lines moving toward Filho at any point before the 26th.
(There MikeyPatriot...I used some of your fancy maths. Hope you're happy now...)