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Strikeforce and ShoXC Odds

I just got home from the wake for my wife's grandfather who passed away Saturday and decided to check out all the news on Bloody Elbow and then check BestFightOdds to see if any lines had changed since yesterday.

It turns out there has been some movement and a few new fights for ShoXC and Strikeforce on the board.  So to save you a click here they are.  If more than one line is available for the fighter I'll give the best line with the worst in parenthesis:

ShoXC - March 21
Malaipet Sitprapom -130
Thomas Denny EVEN

Strikeforce 8 - March 29
Cung Le +180 (+160)
Frank Shamrock -192 (-230)

Drew Fickett +370
Jake Shields -450

Jae Suk Lim +320
Nick Diaz -400

Evangelista Santos +200
Joey Villasenor -250

Gabe Lemley +450
Gilbert Melendez -600

I got on Shamrock at -200 a little over a week ago and I'm pretty comfortable with that.  The site I made the play at has since moved Frank to -220.  I still think Frank is a good play even at these odds as I just don't think Cung Le is going to be able to hang with Shamrock's all-around game for the full length of a championship fight.

Drew Fickett is also standing out a bit as I think the fight is closer than the line is showing.  Fickett is a guy who is 32-5 with a lot of experience in big-time fights (including a 4-3 UFC record).  I need to really sit down and think about the fight and do the math before I decide if he is worth a play.

I'm also a little intrigued by Thomas Denny on the ShoXC card.  Malaipet is a hell of a Thai boxer but he hasn't been knocking people out in MMA really and Denny has a decent ground game.  Assuming he is smart enough to plan on just putting Malaipet on his back and riding out the decision (or going for some subs) I can see Denny winning the fight quite easily.

So what does everyone else see?  What plays would you make?

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