Michael DiSanto at UFC.com recognizes just how strong the upset potential in this fight actually is. To wit:
It is unlikely, therefore, that Lauzon will wilt under the pressure of fighting a marquee guy like Florian.
Moreover, it is hard to imagine Florian doing anything to Lauzon that he doesn't see in training every single day. Remember, Lauzon moved to Hilo, Hawaii to train daily with the reigning UFC Lightweight Champion and recognized MMA phenom, Penn.
Penn is a much more powerful, skilled fighter compared to Florian. Granted, he does not possess the same standup technique as Florian in terms of knees and elbows, but he is a better overall standup fighter. Thus, it is hard to imagine Florian coming out and overwhelming Lauzon on the feet.
It is equally difficult to imagine Florian overwhelming Lauzon on the ground. Even though Ken-Flo is a black belt, his jiu jitsu game should not be discussed in the same sentence as Penn's. It's not anywhere near the same level. And Lauzon has to deal with Penn each and every day, so he should be as well prepared for a ground battle as he can possibly be come fight time.
I disagree slightly with the last part. Rafael Assuncao was able to control position long enough on Lauzon to unleash a substantial amount of damage. While you give the edge in wrestling to Lauzon, Florian could hit a sweep and work vicious GNP from top position. In my view, that has to be Lauzon's biggest concern. Lauzon can't win on the feet anyway, so the ground space must be tightly controlled the entire fight.
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