People expecting Randy to try to win this fight via submission or KO are expecting a strategy he is not going to employ. He could end up winning there in a scramble, but he's going to try to win this fight the way he always wins--by closing the distance and slowly sucking the life out of Brock Lesnar up against the fence.
Most analysis of this fight so far really ignores where Randy will try to win the wrestling game, and it is a major consideration. None of Brock's amateur training prepares him for a situation where he's up against the fence and has to guess if elbows are coming or a sweep is coming. Most of Randy's takedowns off the fence actually use the fence as an ally. He pushes guys against it and then sweeps when they are off balance. Brock Lesnar's size really can't overwhelm that kind of takedown, he has to be ready to defend those kinds of trips. I have no doubt he has trained for it, but two months of training with his back against the fence just may not be enough.
I thought he looked pretty uncomfortable against Herring when his back was up against the fence. Early on he just held a headlock while he tried to figure things out, which he just can't do against Randy Couture. The fact that it wasn't instinctual to him what he should do in that situation is really where the inexperience factors in. Brock is an incredible wrestler, but if he takes a round worth of dirty boxing, knees, and elbows up against the fence, I expect Randy won't have too hard of a time putting him on his back once he has to worry about those other things.