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Betting on Gonzaga vs. Werdum II

By Luke Thomas

Desert Dog thinks the smart money is on Napao. Notable quote:

With four years of experience, Cro Cops head on a platter and a shot at the title under his belt, Gonzaga has gained a lot of respect and his odds are showing it. Fabricio's last outing against Arlovski didn't help his image. Fabricio's greatest strength is his sub game but he too often relies on others taking him down to get the fight to the ground. His wrestling is surprisingly weak and if his opponent wants to keep a fight standing it's not too hard to do. Gonzaga has shown some serious gains in striking ability and power and if it does stay on the feet for more than one round Werdum is done. Gonzaga's current betting odds are -250, I would like to see the odds hit -200. This might happen with prefight hype and the reminder the Werdum won the first time around. Give it a little time, If Gonzaga hits -200 or -210 he's a safe bet with some OK value.

This analysis is all good and well, but it omits one critical feature: the talents of Werdum. For starters, his cardio will assuredly be better than Gonzaga. I suspect Gonzaga will come in shape, but unlike a Monson vs. Pe De Pano, these two jiu-jitsu players will work feverishly inside the clinch. Werdum's wrestling isn't as good as Gonzaga, but at 6'4" his upper body takedowns are quite good not to mention that Werdum's training with Chute Boxe will help with offense inside the clinch. And for those who don't know, the clinch is an enormously tiring place to fight. If this fight goes to the third round, Werdum's chances increase exponentially. His cardio will be as good as Gonzaga's, but more importantly, Werdum's ability to avoid too much damage or being finished could change the course of the fight.

I agree this is Gonzaga's fight to lose, but I think those of you who believe Werdum is going to be steamrolled are going to be in for a big surprise on the 19th.

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