If you look at the odds for the fights at UFC 68 from the different odds makers, most of them make sense: Matt Hughes has about an 87% of winning, Rich Franklin's around 83% or so, Couture is biting on the heels of 30% (which is more than fair), but Rex Holman is at 28 or 29%? Hold the phone.
For starters, he's fighting the supremely underwhelming Matt Hamill. Matt's wrestling is first-rate and he does have a win (albeit a snooze fest) over Seth Petruzelli. But short of that, there's not much you can positively say about his skills. He trains with Team Punishment yet gasses early; he's displayed virtually no submission skills; he holds his hands low and does not appear to have KO power; he ducks his head when he swings (so does Hermes Franca, but he's a very different fighter); and worst of all, he relies heavily on takedowns without doing a lot of guard passing. As a rule wrestlers should have good ground and pound. Does Hamill? Not so much.
And I find it hard to accept that Matt's fighting style is going to work well against Rex Holman. Holman is older than Hamill, but he's as good if not better at wrestling. He's the 1993 NCAA Div. I National Champion and competed on the elite stage until 2001. He does have a loss to Strong Style Fight Team's Matt Masterson, but Holman's improved enormously since then. Notably, not one of his fights have ever gone to a decision and he finished opponents with both submissions and strikes. At the moment, he trains with UFC-alum Sean Salmon. Ok, Salmon got crushed his first time out in the UFC, but the guy is talented and is a great training/sparring partner.
You can say I'm counting out Hamill like many once counted out Rashad Evans. But I'm not buying the comparison. Evans took forever before he started finishing fights, but he was fighting men much bigger than him and still pushing the action. And every time we saw him he looked better and better, not to mention he was always more well-rounded than Hamill. Let's also not forget Evans was way more experienced before TUF2 than Hamill is AFTER TUF3.
So what are the odds? Let's see:
Hamill's at -310 to Holman's +240 on Betcris. And according to Betus, Hamill's up at -280 to Holman's +220.
I don't know, folks, these are suspect. Again, anything can happen in a fight. Maybe Hamill's power and wrestling will overwhelm the older Holman. One never knows for sure. But if you're counting on an upset on this card, the Hamill vs. Holman fight is the first bout I'd look at.