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Who's The Favorite?

I like betting on MMA, so I went over to Bodog to check out the lines for UFC 79.  Over there, Wanderlei Silva is now the slight favorite against Chuck Liddell.  I think they've got it right.

I'm a pretty big Chuck Liddell fan, and I have no problem admitting that I am rooting for him to knock out Wanderlei Silva in December.  However, the more I think about it, Silva has to be the favorite here.  

I was just watching Chuck's war with Vernon White, which is an example of a fight where Chuck was dominant, but even there he takes a lot of shots.  So much of Chuck's strategy for years was to sit back, take his time, let his good chin keep him up, prevent takedowns, and wait for the knockout.  He's never been afraid of getting hit, but it's going to be a problem with Silva.  He can't just stand there and let Silva punch him while he waits for a shot, it'll be over fast if he fights that way.  I think the whole narrative about this fight being good for Chuck as a counterpuncher is totally wrong, that really only works for him against guys without KO power.  Unless we see an aggressive Liddell, I think he's in big trouble.

A lot depends on if Silva still has his old knockout power.  Shogun looked completely impotent against Forrest, his punches appeared to have nothing on them, especially compared to the way he used to throw.  Chuck's best hope for victory is if Silva is as diminished as Shogun was.

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