The much anticipated UFC 91 is just around the corner.  I see a lot of opportunities on this card, but I'm very nervous as to how things will play out.  I made some questionable early bets leading up to the fight, so I'm hoping the event isn't a total bust on my part.  Here are my plays for the evening:

Couture vs. Lesnar, $2.30 on Lesnar @ -115.  I made this bet very early, and as fight night draws near, I like it less and less.  Sure Lesnar has size/weight/strength/age/athleticism advantages, but he's still a rookie.  Michael Rome's post about Lesnar's lack of instincts is the best argument for Couture, and I think it is very true.  I truly believe that Herring underestimated Lesnar's skills in the standup.  Couture has seen glimpses of Lesnar's power and will not make the same mistake.  Couture is steadily becoming more and more of an underdog.  If his numbers hit +115 or better, I'm going to arb this out.

Couture vs. Lesnar goes over 2:30 of round 3, $8.10 to win $4.00.  This is another bet I placed early.  As time progressed and the odds on the over got better and better, I slowly added more money to the wager, and ended up with a wager of $8.10.  My rational was that neither Lesnar nor Couture has shown that much of an ability to finish a fight.  Couture's style doesn't lend itself to flash knockouts or submissions, and Brock certainly wasn't in any hurry to finish off Herring.  Also, I had read some interviews where Couture said his plan was to "not get hit" and step aside to avoid Brock's charge ahead mentality.  Although I still like the over here, I'm nervous that such a large portion of my bankroll is on this bet.

Mark Bocek vs. Alvin Robinson, $2.00 on Alvin Robinson @ EVEN.  I was never that impressed by Mark Bocek's wrestling, and I think Robinson is too big for him to push around for 3 rounds.  Both have excellent jiu-jitsu, but I think Robinson is just the better fighter here.  I'm not entirely sure why Bocek is a slight favorite.

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory, $1.70 on Dustin Hazelett @ -170.  Hazelett is a great prospect in the welterweight division with VERY impressive jiu-jitsu.  McCrory also brings good jiu-jitsu to the table as well as an aggressive  stand-up game with a huge reach.  I was initially hoping McCrory would come into this fight as a huge dog, and I was surprised to find that Hazelett was favored by so little.  Hazelett's all around game is just a bit better than McCrory's.  My only worry is that Hazelett is very susceptible to getting hit by big shots, as shown in the Koscheck fight.  I ultimately think he'll be able to wrap up one of McCrory's lanky arms and get the submission victory.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks, $1.85 on Gabriel Gonzaga @ -370.  People are down on Gonzaga after his losses to Couture and Werdum, but losing to the current champ and a former top contender is nothing to be ashamed of.  Hendricks doesn't have much going for him except a decent ground game, but Gonzaga is a monster on the ground himself.  Gonzaga takes this one easily.

Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley, $2.00 on Aaron Riley @ EVEN.  Again, I'm not convinced that Gurgel should be favored in this matchup.  Gurgel has a tendency to forget that his strength is his ground game.  If Gurgel wants to brawl, and its likely that he will, then Riley should win.

As you can see, I've taken quite a bit of action on this card.  Except for my early bets on the Couture vs. Lesnar fight, I feel pretty confident going into the weekend.  So far, I'm 20-21-3, down $10.15.  As always, comments and criticisms are welcome and encouraged!

A rough night for the experiment.  I saw some pretty decent opportunities here, but the chips just didn't fall my way (seems like that's happening a lot recently...).  Here's the night's breakdown:

Jake Rosholt vs. Nissen Osterneck, $1 on Osterneck @ +260, Lost $1.  Both fighters are still new to the fight game, but I felt Osterneck had pretty good submissions and also an advantage in the standup.  Osterneck did a good job of beating up Rosholt on the feet, but Rosholt took him down with almost no effort, and Osterneck's jiu-jitsu was rendered useless by Rosholt's control.  In the second round, Osterneck landed some incredible combinations and looked to have Rosholt hurt.  Unfortunately, he threw an off-balance, telegraphed spinning back fist which left him wide open for a takedown/mount.  Rosholt showed how much he has left to learn, but he also showed some awesome potential here.

Yoshiro Maeda vs. Rani Yahya, $2.10 on Maeda @ -105, Lost $2.10.  Rani had been a huge disappointment leading up to this fight.  His takedowns looked terrible and his cardio was pretty bad too.  On the other hand, Maeda just came off a thrilling performance (albeit a defeat) against Miguel Torres, where he showed  a well-rounded and effective fight game.  All that was thrown out the window, as Maeda failed to heed the sage advice of Wu-Tang -- "protect ya neck".

I didn't do a write-up of Sengoku VI, as I'm not very familiar with a lot of the Japanese fighters, but I did put a dollar on Fabio Silva, since I wasn't entirely sold on King Mo.  Much like today's bet on a wrestling blue chip prospect, my bet was sour and lost me a dollar.  I'm in the middle of a pretty bad streak right now, but I think a lot of good events are coming up.  UFC 91 is just around the corner, and I'll definitely do a write-up leading up to fight night.  So far, I'm 20-21-3 down $10.15.

I've been incredibly busy this past week, so I didn't get the chance to do a preliminary write-up with my picks.  This event was full of some great opportunities that my bankroll only took slight advantage of.  Here's how the night went:

Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote, $6.50 on Anderson Silva @ -650, won $1.00.  I thought that this fight was a gimme.  Patrick Cote had absolutely nothing on Anderson Silva, and Silva showed it by clowning around for most of the fight.  It was quite a strange outcome, but it won me money, so I guess I can't complain too much.  I honestly believe that the true line for this fight was more around -800 to -900.

Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves, $1.00 on Thiago Alves @ +135, won $1.35.  Going into this fight, I thought it was a toin coss between the two fighters, so either fighter at a positive number would be a good deal.  Most books had Koscheck as a slight underdog, but before I could jump on that, the line shifted very quickly to make him the favorite, so I instead laid a small bet on Alves.  After seeing Alves brutalize Koscheck for three straight rounds, I feel fortunate that I wasn't quick enough to lay a dollar down on Koscheck.

Those were the only two bets I had, but a lot of other fights had some great value, most notably, Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior Dos Santos.  The relatively unknown Junior Dos Santos was assigned a mere 14% chance to beat Werdum at +600.  After seeing Dana's vlog showcasing Dos Santos hitting some pads, people went nuts.  After seeing the weigh-ins where Werdum hardly looked like he'd been training at all, people went even more nuts.  The line on Dos Santos shifted all the way down to +400 territory.  Those lucky enough to put money on Dos Santos early were rewarded handsomely.

I came out of tonight modestly successful, going 2-0 and up $2.35.  Overall, I am 20-18-3 with my picks, down $6.06.

UFC 89 was a pretty big disappointment for me on the gambling front.  Here's how I did:

Sam Stout vs. Terry Etim, $1 on Etim @ +275, won $2.75.  I decided to go with this fight based on the recommendations of many other people.  I figured his long frame and good ground game could frustrate Stout.  Etim came away with the decision, which made me very happy.

Akihiro Gono vs. Dan Hardy, $3.30 on Gono @ -330, lost $3.30.  This was the fight that stung the most.  There was little doubt in my mind that Gono would take this one with his crafty style.  As far as I know, Hardy hasn't done much in his career other than knee Yoshida really hard in the groin.  Its even more unfortunate that I can't seem to find the fight to watch.

Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine, $5.00 on Vera @ -165, lost $5.00.  The minute Jardine took down Vera, I knew I was in trouble.  Even though Vera didn't gas out, he was still timid and never managed to put Jardine under any pressure.  I wasn't all that impressed by either fighter, as neither of them seemed willing to pull the trigger.

Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben, $4.00 on Bisping @ -200, won $2.00.  This fight went down as I expected, with Bisping using superior technique to frustrate Leben.  He effectively peppered Leben with shots throughout all three round, and Leben essentially fought the same way he usually does, constantly throwing huge bombs.

On the whole, I ended down $3.55, leaving me down $8.71 in total.  UFC 90 is coming up next week, and will hopefully provide an opportunity to rebound.  Fights that I'm keeping an eye on are Silva vs. Cote (currently -650 on Bodog), Koscheck vs. Alves, and Leites vs. McFedries.

Lines are out for UFC 89 on Bodog.  Here are my picks for the night:

Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine, $5 on Vera @ -165.  I managed to pick up Vera when the line first opened up.  Right now he's at -180.  I still think there's some value on Vera at this point.  Reports that he's slimmed down significantly and has a renewed focus are encouraging.  I'm hoping he looks a lot less pudgy than he did against Reese Andy.  He said the weight cut affected him a lot, and if he's lost body fat, it would definitely make the weight cut less intense.  I like Vera over Jardine because of Jardine's loopy style and questionable chin.  A muy thai striker with accuracy like Vera should be able to capitalize on that.

Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben, $4 on Bisping @ -200.  Again, I got this at the opening line.  Right now, the line is at -240 for Bisping.  I like Bisping for much the same reason I like Leben.  Leben's wide open fighting stance leaves him vulnerable to Bisping's striking.  Bisping won't have to worry much about being taken down or submitted, so if he can outpoint Leben on the feet, or take him down and work some GnP, he should come away with the victory.

Sokoudjou vs. Cane is a very interesting fight.  Everyone was hoping the line would open with Cane as the underdog, but most books have it as a pick'em.  Bodog lists both fighters at -115.  If the line moves above even for Cane, I'll bet on him.  Sokoudjou seems to rely mostly on pure athleticism and hasn't shown too much in the way of GnP or submissions.  With a muy thai guy like Cane, that could be a problem.

Only other potential value I see is Akihiro Gono @ -330.  Can't say much about any of the other fights, but any comments regarding them is welcome.

Over the course of 3 months, I am down $5.16.

My public picks took a pretty bad beating this weekend, but that was all made up by the 14 second sideshow that was Slice vs. Petruzelli.  Here's how the events played out:

Pete Spratt vs. Donnie Liles, $1.25 on Spratt @ -125.  Lost $1.25.  Not much to say here.  I figured Pete Spratt would have enough power to put away Liles, but instead, he showcased his mediocrity once again.

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobold-Gavin, $1 on Kobold-Gavin @ +525, Lost $1.  Kelly put up a decent fight, hanging in with Gina's pinpoint striking and even returning some nice shots.  Unfortunately, her takedown attempts were pretty easily shrugged off, and Gina did a pretty good job of messing up Kobold's face.  I don't think this was a bad bet.  At +525, bookmakers only gave Kobold a 16% chance of winning this fight.  Even though Gina was never really in danger, I still think Kobold wasn't getting quite enough credit from the books.

Ninja Rua vs. Benji Radach, $2.65 on Rua @ -265.  Lost $2.65.  In retrospect, this is really the only bet I think was a mistake.  Rua's "Chute Boxe" style, wide open striking leaves him open to being taken out by other brawlers.  I had figured Benji would have a case of ring rust, and Rua's diverse skillset would win him this fight.  Instead, Rua took a few too many to the noggin.

My other play for the night was on Kimbo vs. Shamrock.  When the news broke that Shamrock was "hurt", I was pretty disappointed.  Kimbo was my main play for the weekend, and I felt confident that Ken would get knocked out.  When I heard Seth Petruzelli was stepping in, I expected the lines to open up closer to even, as Seth is actually not just a washed up can.  Unfortunately, I didn't get on Seth on my Bodog account, which is the only account for which I publicize my picks for the purpose of the experiment, but I did manage to place a sizeable wager on him at Bookmaker @ +350, which more than made up for all my losses.  This is a perfect example of how soft MMA lines are right now.  Kimbo had no business being the favorite here.  I'm surprised the oddsmakers here didn't pick up on that.  There are 2 possible scenarios:  (1) The books didn't bother to handicap this fight -- they slapped a number on and waited for money to pour in, or (2) TONS of public money poured in on the Kimbo side, and the books, wanting to hedge their risk, pushed the odds way up on Seth.  Either way, anybody with a more than casual knowledge of the MMA world should have seen this as an opportunity for a huge payday.

My Bodog account is currently 16-15-2, down $5.15.

Lines are out for EliteXC's upcoming primetime show, and there are some pretty interesting bouts in the show.  Here are my plays for the evening:

Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock, Kimbo Slice @ -325, $3.25 to win $1.  Ken really shouldn't be fighting anymore.  Kimbo has a huge advantage is size and athleticism.  Ken's only chance is to take it to the ground and work a submission game, but lately, he's been content to stand and brawl with his opponents (see Berry vs. Shamrock).  Ken's head is going to end up 15 rows back in the stands.

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobold-Gavin, Kobold-Gavin @ +525, $1 to win $5.25.  I think this is a case of Carano's star power dictating the line rather than her actually being that superior to Kobold.  Kobold's got a decent ground game, and she's got a good amount of strength.

Murilo Rua vs. Benji Radach, Rua @ -265, $2.65 to win $1.  Rua's got all the tools to put Radach away, regardless of position.

Also, I neglected to post my plays for DREAM.6 and WVR Sengoku IV, the main reason being I only made 1 bet between the two events.  Both events were filled with one-sided match-ups, hardly worth looking at (Aoki vs. Moore??), or fights that I didn't know much about.  My only play was Mousasi vs. Manhoef, Mousasi @ -175, bet $3.50 to win $2.  As expected, Manhoef showed that he's a one trick pony, and was outclassed by the well-rounded Mousasi.  Currently, I am 16-13-1, down $0.24.  Hopefully EliteXC can push me into the black.

This is a card full of live underdogs, and hopefully I can take advantage of that.  I bet exclusively on underdogs on the last UFN, Silva vs. Irvin, and was punished badly for it.  I think my picks here are better than last time overall.  I was pretty surprised by the opening lines.  Here's a breakdown of my bets:

Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer, $1 on Schafer @ +225.  I'm surprised that Schafer is that big of a dog, especially considering Houston's apparent lack of ground game.  If Schafer can weather Alexander's power and get him on the ground, its his game.  At +225, the bookies give him a 31% chance of victory, which I think is selling him short in a big way.

Ed Herman vs. Alan Belcher, $1 on Belcher @ +205.  Again, I'm surprised that Belcher is a 2 to 1 underdog here.  Belcher's got a clear striking advantage, and he should be able to exploit that to win the bout. (it appears my draft wasn't complete here.  I apologize for publishing it a bit early...)

Joe Lauzon vs. Kyle Bradley, $1 on Bradley @ +600.  Bradley's being overlooked because no one knows who he is.  Bradley's got a size advantage over Lauzon, which may be problematic for Joe, as he usually relies on overwhelming his opponents to get the victory.  Bradley's definitely the underdog here, but not THAT much of a dog.

Drew McFedries vs. Mike Massenzio, $2 on McFedries @ -190.  This is a classic matchup of striker vs. grappler.  Massenzio definitely does NOT want to stand with McFedries, but I'm not impressed enough by Massenzio's wrestling to convince me that he can take this fight.

Hit me up with comments, questions and criticisms!

Ugh, I got slammed here by a combination of bad lucks and bad picks.  Here's how the night went:

Liddell vs. Evans, $9 on Liddell @ -260.  Lost $9.  This was the killer.  I was so sure Liddell would win this fight, and I was absolutely shocked to see him get KTFO'd.  Is Chuck getting old?  Is Rashad getting better?  Either way, it sucks, and it lost me nine bucks.

Marquardt vs. Kampmann, $5 Marquardt @ -125.  Won $4.  I felt pretty good here, as I wasn't that impressed with Kampmann, even in his wins against McFedries and Rivera.  I felt Marquardt deserved to be more of a favorite, and the bet here paid off.

MacDonald vs. Lambert, $2 on Lambert @ +155.  Lost $2.  This was a stupid bet.  I thought Lambert would perform better at 185, and he sure as hell looked a lot better at these weigh-ins than he has in the past.  I also thought maybe MacDonald hadn't had enough time to prepare, since he fought Maia so recently.  For whatever reason, I neglected the simple fact that MacDonald is just the better fighter.

2-way parlay on Kim and Boetsch, $4 to win $1.98.  Won $1.98.  Thought they were both in a different league than their opponents.  True of Boetsch, not as true of Kim.

Another huge disappointment here was the cancellation of Parisyan vs. Yoshida.  I had money on Yoshida at +190, and thought he had at LEAST a 50% chance to win there.

Overall, I ended the night down $5.02.  Rather disappointing, but there will be plenty of opportunities to recuperate, with UFC 89 and 90 so close around the corner.

Bodog just posted its odds for UFC 88, so here are my preliminary bets with some analysis:

Liddell vs. Evans, $9 on Liddell @ -260.  I really like Chuck here.  Fighters like Evans were tailor-made for Chuck, and especially after Evans's lackluster performance against Tito Ortiz, I really don't see any way that he wins this fight.  This is the largest single wager I've made on a fight since I started betting on MMA.

I'm also thinking of putting money on Marquardt and Yoshida.  Bodog has them at -125 and +165 respectively.  I like Marquardt a lot at those odds and may throw $4 or $5 down on him.  I'm not hot on Yoshida at +165, but the line isn't likely to get any better, especially considering reports that Karo's been suffering from panic attacks.  If the line creeps near +200, then I'll bet on him.

I don't much like Hamill, Franklin, Hendo, or Palhares.  Too many unknowns in the Hamill/Franklin fight to put down any money.  If Hamill tries to slug it out, he goes down.  If he fights smart, he could pull out a victory.  Franklin no longer has the size advantage he's used to having.  I just don't see any value in either fighter here.  A similar situation with Hendo/Palhares.  Palhares has sick jiu-jitsu, and Hendo's got a sick left hook... too many ways for this fight to end in a flash for either fighter to make a compelling argument either way.

On a completely different note, you might notice that I did not put any money on Sengoku IV.  My knowledge of Japanese MMA is very limited, so I didn't feel comfortable with any wagering, although I wonder if I'm missing out on some good opportunities there.  Instinctively, I want to think that Japanese MMA lines are more inefficient than UFC lines, but I really don't have anything to base this on other than gut feeling.  I simply think that the mid-tier Japanese fighters aren't as visible over here as the mid-tier UFC fighters are.

Let me know what you guys think!