Zuffa's Dangerous Summer

Zuffa will be on dangerous ground this summer, and by the time August rolls around, the shape of the MMA business could be completely changed, or Zuffa could emerge as the uncontested and permanent leader.

The first dangerous event for Zuffa is coming up soon, and that is the CBS Elite XC show with Kimbo Slice.  According to Dave Meltzer, Kimbo Slice is actually going to get a cover story on ESPN magazine.  The man is becoming a phenomenon, and it's actually sad how badly Zuffa misread his potential.  This should help increase the buzz for the CBS debut show.  Regardless of the outcome of that show, it is bad for Zuffa either way.  If the show is a hit they have a major competitor, if it fails it will tarnish MMA's reputation as a broadcast draw for years.  Still, they are surely hoping it fails.  The success of this show may also determine whether or not they make a last ditch effort to keep Tito Ortiz.

In July, Affliction and Mark Cuban will put on a PPV show with Fedor headlining against Tim Sylvia.  It's not all finalized yet, so I wouldn't be surprised if it falls apart, but this is a big one too.  Cuban has big money, and this will really test the value of Sylvia without the UFC brand, and Fedor in the US.  I think the show will sell out, but I don't expect it will do a lot of PPV buys.  My best guess is 30-45,000.  If Fedor loses, Randy's entire gambit is a wash, and it would be a huge victory for Zuffa in terms of maintaining a stranglehold on big fights.

The other big summer event is going to be what happens when Randy's promotional contract expires.  Sometimes over the spring or in the summer a court will make an initial declaratory judgment on Randy's contractual status as a fighter.  The two sides are battling over removal issues at the moment, because Cuban's people pulled a clever legal trick to manipulate jurisdiction to keep it out of federal court.

By the time August rolls around, we could have 2 major competitors to The UFC and a free Randy Couture on the road to facing Fedor for one of them, or we could have a situation where both flop, Randy loses his case, Fedor loses his fight, and Zuffa emerges supreme.  Or, most likely, we will have some kind of combination of the above, leaving things murky.  It should be an interesting summer.