BloodyElbow.com Predictions for UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre

Luke Thomas: You look at the styles, their performance in the professional MMA competition, their preparation for this fight and other factors large and small and it becomes clear that it's hard to see a way for Serra to win this fight. I also wonder how long a year long layoff after recovering from back surgery will hinder Serra's performance. More importantly, Serra's unexpected pressure will be expected. Serra's tough and very hard to put away, but GSP can mix takedowns into his stand-up exchanges to keep Serra off balance and to prevent him from sitting on his punches. While on the floor, GSP's defense is good enough and GNP vicious enough to do damage and avoid trouble. Serra won't go quietly into that good night, but he won't leave the champion either. GSP, by unanimous decision.

Kid Nate: No way Serra catches him standing again. GSP by ground and pound.

Brent Brookhouse: I like Serra, so I hate to sound like I'm giving him no chance to win the fight. But I'm giving him next to no chance to win the rematch. Georges is going to bust Serra up on the feet this time around and if it goes to the ground it'll be Serra on bottom where I don't think he will be successful working submissions. I'm going to go ahead and take GSP by TKO in the second round.

Michael Rome: While I don't think this is a slam dunk win for St. Pierre, I do expect him to win. I think he can use his reach and wrestling to avoid Serra's looping punches. I do think this will be a tougher fight though for St. Pierre than Hughes was, but I think GSP is just too much. GSP by stoppage, round 3.

Nick Thomas: Finally the WW belt is back up for grabs... crazy how long it's been. The question on the 19th will be, is lightning going to strike twice in the same place? The exact place being a punch behind the head of GSP? I doubt it. Serra's coming into this match with a year's worth of ring rust and a humbled GSP since their first fight. Nothing but GSP by vicious ground and pound.

Travis Lutter vs. Rich Franklin

Luke Thomas: Early on I give the edge to Lutter. As the fight wears on, I give the edge to Franklin. Franklin's very competent on the ground, but he's not Lutter. The difference in my mind will be cardio. As Franklin works hard to prevent the fight from hitting the floor and damages Lutter on the feet, he'll eventually wear him down. Assuming Franklin can avoid the submission - no small feat - he'll be in a great position to takeover come round 3. At that point Franklin scores the TKO against the fence from a Lutter unable to defend himself. Franklin, TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Franklin is too dangerous for Lutter. I think the submission specialist will eat some vicious shots trying to get the takedown. Franklin by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Lutter is a real live underdog in this fight, but Franklin is motivated and well rounded enough that he can handle everyone in the UFC 185 division aside from Silva. I'll take Franklin by pretty one sided decision.

Michael Rome: Real hard to pick, it's very easy to underrate Rich now after seeing Silva decimate him twice. Obviously this is going to depend on where this fight goes down, and I suspect Rich will keep this standing for the most part and win a decision.

Nick Thomas: Both of these guys are big 185'ers and I couldn't say who is the stronger fighter. But I do believe Franklin's ground game is solid enough to survive however long Lutter is able to keep Franklin down. When this fight is standing Franklin will score with strikes leading to Franklin winning by UD.

Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes

Luke Thomas: I'm going to pick Quarry, but if you want to make a gambling play on Starnes, I have no beef with you. The odds makers have this as a distinct advantage for Quarry and it's not. Starnes is a great tactician training with Kultar Gil at Revolution MMA and American Top Team in Florida. Quarry is strong, possesses heavy hands and great wrestling. So what decides this? I'm wagering that Quarry losses early and comes back to win at the end. He'll sustain a tremendous amount of punishment throughout the fight, but he'll persevere and use his KO power to hurt and ultimately break the will of Starnes. Quarry, TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Boy, talk about a fight I have NO interest in. Neither of these guys will ever be contenders. Quarry has heart and some standup power but Starnes should be too much for him. Kalib by UD.

Brent Brookhouse: Starnes is going to muscle Quarry around in this fight. He's also going to spend a lot of time on top of him mashing him with punches and elbows. My one big concern is Starnes' skin. The cut he suffered against Belcher was nasty and a lot of times that type of scar tissue can open up quickly. If Starnes can keep his skull from showing I'm going to take him by decision.

Michael Rome: For a while Starnes was a great upset bet at +400 but the line has come down. Kalib tends to have very exciting fights, even though he's not really all that good at anything. Quarry got a KO out of nowhere in his last fight to win a fight he was losing, but I don't think he'll get that lucky this time. Starnes by decision.

Nick Thomas: I hate picking against Quarry because he's a fav of mine, but Quarry almost got stopped by Pete Sell. Starnes will be able to win this fight in multiple scenarios. Upset #1. Starnes by submission.

Charles McCarthy vs. Michael Bisping

Luke Thomas: McCarthy has fallen in love with jiu-jitsu, but Bisping hasn't. Word is that Bisping's cut to middleweight has gone as expected and he's in phenomenal spirit and shape. McCarthy doesn't handle pressure well yet is fighting a guy who is known for bringing pressure when he's firing on all cylinders. I suspect this will look a lot like Bisping vs. Schafer...with exactly the same ending. Bisping, by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Bisping by KO in 1.

Brent Brookhouse: Bisping is going to work his boxing this fight, much better and more aggressively than he has in his last few fights. Bisping by TKO in the first.

Michael Rome: Moving down to 185 is going to be a short lived reprieve from top competition for him, because he is in deep shit as soon as he faces Franklin, Henderson, Silva, or even Leben. Bisping is going to win this, there's not much to say.

Nick Thomas: Going to be a long night for McCarthy fighting Bisping at 185. Even though I think Bisping is still unproven, I believe he will deliver at 185 and become a badly needed middleweight contender. Bisping by TKO.

Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig

Luke Thomas: This fight is a lot closer than folks imagine. Danzig is a talented fighter, but his biggest win - in my mind - is over KOTC vet Buddy Clinton. That's good, but Bocek is assuredly better than Clinton, particularly on the ground. I imagine Bocek might even steal a round...or two. The difference maker for me is that while I think their wrestling games probably cancel each other to some extent (Bocek might have the edge there), Danzig has much better hands, is a veteran of the game and is peaking with his training at Xtreme Couture. His takedown defense and kickboxing should be enough to avoid giving Bocek the win. Should being the operative word. Danzig, by split decision.

Kid Nate: I like Bocek and think that given enough time to develop he could be a force in the division, but I think he came into the UFC a little too early in his career. The only thing giving me trouble here is that Bocek is better than Danzig at Danzig's strength -- BJJ. Danzig is far and away the more well-rounded fighter but neither his wrestling nor his striking is good enough to overwhelm Bocek IMO. I'll play it safe here and pick Danzig by UD but don't be surprised if Bocek does better than expected.

Brent Brookhouse: Bocek is a decent fighter but Danzig is a level above him. Danzig by submission in the first.

Michael Rome: Bocek is good on the ground, but I think Danzig will out class him standing and finish this in the second round.

Nick Thomas: I'll be cheering for Bocek, but his chances against Danzig are slim to none. Danzig by TKO.

UNDERCARD FIGHTS

Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald

Luke Thomas: This is a toss-up. Doerksen is probably more well-rounded, but MacDonald has the better ground technique (although not in wrestling). I don't know how much MacDonald's previous win over Doerksen will matter, but I do believe MacDonald's experience fighting high level opponents and changing up his training partners and locations has improved his game. I'm not sure I can say the same for Doerksen. MacDonald, by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: These guys are very evenl matched but I tend to buy Doerksen's story that he underestimated McDonald and coasted in their first fight. Joe requested the rematch and I think he'll take it. Doerksen.

Brent Brookhouse: Doerksen has not had a ton of success in the UFC, and lost to Jason MacDonald the first time they met. I think both of those factors play into his mind. MacDonald by submission in the third.

Michael Rome: Tough to pick, there is always the chance Doerksen pulls off a nice submission, but I think Jason will be too much. MacDonald via tko, second round.

Nick Thomas: MacDonald has the benefit of beating Doerksen the first time around and being hungry after a loss to Okami. Close fight here but Macdonald pulls it off by a close decision.

Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher

Luke Thomas: Belcher's not that great on the ground, but a) this isn't his first UFC rodeo (it is for Day), b) he's extremely hungry to win this fight after sitting out a bout with Almeida, and c) if Day can't finish Loiseau on the ground, he certainly can't finish Belcher. Granted, neither is particularly great (although Loiseau's sub defense is probably better), but Belcher has enough to hang with Day and make him pay on the feet. Belcher, by KO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Belcher is brutal but he's just not that good on the ground. Okami and Grove both made him look pretty bad. Day by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: I want to pick Day here...if for no other reason than his nickname (Jason "Dooms" Day) is so bad it's funny. Day is a very solid fighter and could submit Alan if he gets the chance. But Belcher seems to be getting his game together and has a lot of confidence. Belcher by stoppage in the first.

Michael Rome: I'm not sure if this is an upset or not, but I'm picking Jason Day. Belcher has not impressed me at all, his skills are limited, and the few videos I've seen of Day looked quite good. Day via submission, round 1.

Nick Thomas: Upset #2. Going with my fellow Canadian Day in his UFC debut. Day by decision.

Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia

Luke Thomas: Herman is looking to sprawl and brawl, which is a good gameplan against the best grappler in the UFC, but it's not good for a fighter whose natural strength is winning on top with GNP. Maia via triangle choke submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: If Herman couldn't handle McDonald's JJ, I don't anticipate him surviving three rounds with Maia. Maia by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Herman has the better resume in MMA and has been getting hot lately. But Maia could very well be a monster in this game. Demian by submission.

Michael Rome: I was wondering where Herman went! Talk about a guy lost in the shuffle. I expect him to win here, but I think he will remain stagnant.

Nick Thomas: Upset #3. Maia by submission.

Rich Clementi vs. Sam Stout

Luke Thomas: Good fight, but I don't think Stout's going to win. He's been working really hard on his takedown defense and jiu-jitsu, but Clementi isn't exactly Per Eklund. Clementi has a great chin, decent all-around skill and certainly enough skill once the fight hits the floor. That will be the biggest challenge, but I don't think Stout can fend him off for three rounds. Clementi, by submission, round 3.

Kid Nate: Tough call, Clementi is more well rounded but Stout has the edge standing. However, Stout couldn't KO an obviously out of shape Per Eklund when he had every chance. I think Clementi will get the takedown and get the submission win.

Brent Brookhouse: This is the fight I've had the most difficulty picking honestly. I've been watching tape (DVD's and internet videos if you want to get picky) of both fighters for a few hours now and I think I've settled on Clementi by submission.

Michael Rome: This should be a good fight, and it's pretty much a tossup. Clementi is coming off two good wins though, and I suspect he'll get a decision victory.

Nick Thomas: Looking at the ufc.com poll, Stout is actually the favorite here, but you'd think most people are picking Clementi. I'm going to with Stout by TKO.

Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez

Luke Thomas: Morris is a gamer, but outmatched against Velasquez. Velasquez is the better wrestler and better athlete. Tough fight for a UFC debut if you're Morris. Velasquez by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Too physical for Morris. Velasquez by being a hot prospect.

Brent Brookhouse: Velasquez by TKO in the first.

Michael Rome: Velasquez via TKO in the first.

Nick Thomas: This fight brings some much needed HW blood to the UFC. Supposedly Velasquez (from AKA) is the future of the HW division, so since I know little of both, I'm picking Velasquez by TKO.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet

Luke Thomas: The Japanese transplants have had a habit of disappointing me recently, but I'm going to stick with Hironaka. He's got better technique on the floor, decent wrestling, cage experience and a much better chin than Goulet. Goulet's got the hometown advantage, but that's not enough to stop exchanges which Goulet has said he plans to initiate. Not a smart gameplan. Hironaka by TKO.

Kid Nate: This has "loser leave town match" written all over it. I'm going to pick Hironaka.

Brent Brookhouse: Goulet by decision.

Michael Rome: Goulet via decision.

Nick Thomas: Very tough fight for Goulet. But I'm going to give Goulet a slight hometown advantage and pick Goulet by UD.