The Case For Cung Le

by Luke Thomas on Mar 25, 2008 11:34 AM EDT in News

An in shape and prepared Le poses a tremendous danger to Shamrock. If Le utilizes his superior athleticism and controls the range between the two, he will control the fight. If Shamrock takes two steps forward, Le needs to take two steps back and two to the right. He must constantly stay in motion and make Shamrock chase him in order to hit him. Le needs to pick and choose his spots and close the distance whenever he feels he has an opening. Once that opening closes up, he needs to disengage and keep Shamrock away from him.

I believe that the strategy outlined is a winning one and if I know that this is the right way to approach the fight, you've got to think Le has known this for months.

What I see happening is Le staying mobile and throwing a lot of unanswered strikes from the outside. I see him scoring a lot of points with the judges and Shamrock having trouble timing all of his unorthodoxed strikes. Shamrock is right in his assessment that Le's striking is not typical MMA striking but that is to Le's benefit. While they've sparred together in the past and Shamrock has a better understanding of what Le will throw at him than the usual opponent does, I don't think he will be ready to handle everything Le can throw at him while the two are fighting at full speed.

I see this fight ending in the fourth round when Shamrock starts to show signs of fatigue as a result of trying to catch Le so he can hit him. I think Le might take a risk and try to come inside and get caught by Shamrock. From there, I envision Le responding by taking Shamrock off his feet and finishing via ground and pound.

I still haven't made up my mind about who I think will win, but Le's strategy of keeping the fight standing by creating scrambles after the takedown could prove quite smart.

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Re: The Case For Cung Le

The one issue I see with that is that I don't think Shamrock is going to gas simply from "trying to catch" Le. I think Shamrock's tank will be as good as it always is and if anything it would be the scrambles that could possibly make him gas. The act of "trying to catch" someone is more of a frustrating factor than an exhausting one.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 25, 2008 12:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: The Case For Cung Le

This is how I read that article:

If Cung Le comes in with this gameplan, and

If Cung Le can perfectly execute, and

If Frank Shamrock decides to stand up with him, and

If Cung Le's ground game is more solid than we've seen, and

If Cung Le's last fight wasn't indicative of his abilities, then

This is Cung Le's fight to lose.

I just think that's a lot of "ifs" that need to go in Cung's favor for the fight to be "his to lose."

A couple of things I noticed from the last Strikeforce card. Cung is listed at 5'10", but, imo, he looked shorter than both Morgan and Shamrock (who are also listed at 5'10"). Also, Le came into that fight at 181 (I'm not sure if this fight was at 185 or at a catch weight), and that tells me he won't be cutting much or any weight at 185. Frank should be cutting down from around 195-205. If Frank is going to have a 15 to 20 pound advantage (Morgan weighed in at 177, FWIW), that's going to be pretty huge.

While Cung obviously has enough power to eventually finish fighters, he doesn't really seem to have power that Frank should be afraid of. Morgan was able to wade through strikes and clinch up with Le (though he he was subsequently hip tosses down) over and over again.

Le's top game was also awful in that fight as well.

If Frank's knee is healthy, I see him finishing this fight within 3.

by MikeyPatriot on Mar 25, 2008 2:17 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: The Case For Cung Le

Do you guys really think that Frank is going to have to work that hard to take Le Down?

Maybe I'm being short-sighted, but I see this as a classic striker/grappler match-up, and we know how those go. Sure Frank has an ego (visible from the moon), but to contend that his ego is going to get in the way of him winning is silly. And Sam's argument that Frank likes to attack people's strengths is only true to an extent. He did beat Baroni by RNC, even though he was winning the stand-up.

I think Sam is thinking himself in circles. First he talks about how smart Frank is for promoting himself, but ends up deciding that Frank is too dumb to know how to win against a striker. Really? Which is it? And while Le might be more athletic in Sam's mind, he's also smaller, though younger (somehow Sam gets this backwards).

This is a classic case of over-thinking: Frank is more experienced, larger, more well-rounded, and if not at the top of the game, clearly the toughest MMA competition Le has had to face. Let's not get it confused by trying to imagine a thousand scenarios.

-- Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ

by jemaleddin on Mar 25, 2008 2:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: The Case For Cung Le

I've got my money on Shamrock (literally) so you know what I think is going to happen.

by Brent Brookhouse on Mar 25, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: The Case For Cung Le

Frank Shamrock was born Dec. 8, 1972. Cung Le was born May 25, 1972. How pray tell is Le younger than Shamrock if he was born before him? I love incorrect corrections.

by SCaplan on Mar 25, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: The Case For Cung Le

Well, half the sites in Google give May 25 1972, half 1973. A search for "Cung Le birthdate" gives a "google answer" of 1973, and Strikeforce doesn't bother to put his birthdate in their stats, but then tosses it into the first line of the bio with the 1972 answer.

I'm willing to bet that there's something screwy going on with him and the reporting of his age, so I apologize for just going with the first answer I got.

But you're still wrong about everything else. :-) Frank isn't as dumb as you're making him out to be.

-- Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ

by jemaleddin on Mar 26, 2008 7:04 AM EDT up 0 recs